Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Want my zone forecast to come true.... Tonight Snow likely with a chance of freezing rain in the evening...then freezing rain...sleet and snow after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Saturday Cloudy. Freezing rain in the morning. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For us that lull is the kiss of death. It doesn't look like the 06Z to 08Z stuff is that heavy. the real good stuff comes with the second wave if I'm reading it right. estimates: first wave ~ 0.25 second wave ~ 0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bob Ryan Tonight-Saturday looking wetter and more serious icing for Shenandoah Valley , western and northern areas around DC @abc7news #ice #dcwx Bob Ryan Look for warnings and advisories to be expanded quite a bit soon based on what we are seeing with dProg/dT @abc7news #ice #dcwx I thought it was nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My house 36.5 degrees so there is a big temp gradient., My humidity is 29%. Could the patuxent be keeping you a bit warmer? That plus your relatively close proximity to the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ice ice baby, ewww. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DC stations are now running 28-30 after a midnight-1am high of 38-40....Children's hospital just dropped to 27.....I'm pretty sure Sterling's point and click highs of 40 for DC and northern VA last night will not be reached.... Also noteworthy is the significant decline in the DPs. DCA was 36/24 at 7am and down to 34/7 at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My forecast high is going to bust out here for sure. Currently cloudy and 23 with a 33 high forecast. Not gonna happen with the cloud deck in place. Storm Watch in place. I was wondering about warning criteria. If you get an inch of snow and .1 ice that would not be considered warning level, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My forecast high is going to bust out here for sure. Currently cloudy and 23 with a 33 high forecast. Not gonna happen with the cloud deck in place. Storm Watch in place. I was wondering about warning criteria. If you get an inch of snow and .1 ice that would not be considered warning level, correct? No I think that is still advisory. You need warning criteria snow and/or warning criteria ice - that doesn't meet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW 12z NAM BUFKIT KMRB -- 1.2" snow and 0.39" FZRA KBWI -- 2" snow and 0.09" FZRA (a lot of QPF is wasted on RA at 33 degrees) KIAD -- 1.3" snow and 0.19" FZRA KDCA -- 0.9" snow and 0.12" FZRA (see BWI as well) Did you look at FDK and JYO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For us that lull is the kiss of death. It doesn't look like the 06Z to 08Z stuff is that heavy. the real good stuff comes with the second wave if I'm reading it right. yes....I am hoping for 1/2" of snow/sleet with the frontrunning slug....33 and Rain with the heavier batch will wash it away....which is why I will stay up....that mid morning period will be critical in places like Frederick....heavy rain at say 24 degrees is pretty bad for power lines and trees I would think?...or maybe we all warm quickly and it isnt a big deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Did you look at FDK and JYO? I don't have either on mine... i use this -- http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My house 36.5 degrees so there is a big temp gradient., My humidity is 29%. the cold intrusion should get to you soon I would imagine?....All of DC is below freezing now....I am not sure we will rise above at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Could the patuxent be keeping you a bit warmer? That plus your relatively close proximity to the bay. I had some sun earlier, I usually run colder than DCA as I'm in the woods and about 8 miles from the bay and am not close to PAX river so I don't think so. I think tomorrow my being east will be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here comes the GFS... can't tell much difference through 6 so far comparing it to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Why does it have to be... that on the image on the previous page.. with a model resolution of 1.33 km. I am ON the sfc 0°C line during the heaviest part. It's torturing me.. slowly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Also noteworthy is the significant decline in the DPs. DCA was 36/24 at 7am and down to 34/7 at 10am. yep....the average for the DC stations I am monitoring is currently about 29/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 CAD a tad stronger at 12z when compare to 6z at 12 hrs... note the 1028 contour shows up for the H to our north at 12z.. wasn't there at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Could the patuxent be keeping you a bit warmer? That plus your relatively close proximity to the bay. He must have taken his thermometer out of the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 CAD a tad stronger at 12z when compare to 6z at 12 hrs... note the 1028 contour shows up for the H to our north at 12z.. wasn't there at 6z Looks colder to me so far yoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 heavy rain is less accretion IIRC due to latent heat release? yes..that is what I thought...but what if some of these valleys are 22-25 degrees?....I know heavy rain and 30 is usually not a huge deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 heavy rain is less accretion IIRC due to latent heat release? I thinnk the larger drops are also harder to cool back below freezing so there may be two reasons why heavy rain often doesn't accrete as well. Latent heat probably is the bigger of the two most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z GFS tries to sneak in a lil bit more snow in N VA/DC/MD at hr 18... note the 0.1 QPF value appear... 06z GFS did not have that... 850 line moving north but still south of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Warmer than the NAM, no surprise there. 7am is rain at all three airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 yes..that is what I thought...but what if some of these valleys are 22-25 degrees?....I know heavy rain and 30 is usually not a huge deal A fair amount will run off even in low to mid 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS gets a slug of moderate snow in here early...say 11pm-midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks colder to me so far yoder. So much for that assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So much for that assessment. Shii, blnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So much for that assessment. It did look that way early... the 850 line was farther south by 30-50 miles early in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A fair amount will run off even in low to mid 20s thats good I guess since the GFS annihiates Frederick and Hagerstown The GFS is not as deep with the CAD but it doesn't do some dramatic warmup either...the expected places stay below freezing all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS gets a slug of moderate snow in here early...say 11pm-midnight Perhaps 1-2" SNPL before some ice then rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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