MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 10:00 am MRB: 24/6 HGR: 22/7 IAD: 28/3 Morgantown: 15/8 PIT: 11/8 This is good stuff....LWX....should have a winter storm warning up soon....will be curious what they do with Loudoun/Moco...probably WWA and then play catch up later Hit my low-of-day about 20 minutes ago. Slight rebound since, but only 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What county are you in? Anne Arundel, Half way between Annapolis and Glen Burnie on Rt. 2 We are running the op NAM fire wx nest over DC because neither OPC/HPC are requesting points. Hourly progs here for those interested: http://www.emc.ncep..../mmbpll/firewx/ Epic Win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wondering why WWA has not been issued? They have already treated 7 bypass in Leesburg These icing events are really not fun out here and folks pay no attention until an advisory is posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We are running the op NAM fire wx nest over DC because neither OPC/HPC are requesting points. Hourly progs here for those interested: http://www.emc.ncep..../mmbpll/firewx/ Great link! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 hopefully they don't wait until later this evening when HGR is like 14 degrees and decide it might be a good idea.....Wheeling WV was 28 at 11pm last night....they are currently 9/5....I am going to go ahead and take the under on modeled sfc temps outside DC, temps are falling into the 20's now on all wxbug stations inside the beltway, on the westside at least. All except 1 station are at 29 or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We are running the op NAM fire wx nest over DC because neither OPC/HPC are requesting points. Hourly progs here for those interested: http://www.emc.ncep..../mmbpll/firewx/ Love it 9am Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The sun is coming out in Herndon. I will have to monitor the temps if it stays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks! looks like the big warm push at 850mb is between 8z and 10z and the big warm push at the surface between 14z and 16z the 1st slug is mostly 6z to 8z or maybe a bit after and then a distinct lull before the heavier stuff...that 9am to noon period will be interesting wrt surface temps For us that lull is the kiss of death. It doesn't look like the 06Z to 08Z stuff is that heavy. the real good stuff comes with the second wave if I'm reading it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The sun is coming out in Herndon. I will have to monitor the temps if it stays out. Keep us updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bob Ryan Tonight-Saturday looking wetter and more serious icing for Shenandoah Valley , western and northern areas around DC @abc7news #ice #dcwx Bob Ryan Look for warnings and advisories to be expanded quite a bit soon based on what we are seeing with dProg/dT @abc7news #ice #dcwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 From LWX A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) Over 5 inches of snow/sleet AND/OR 2) Glaze accumulation (freezing rain) of 1/4 inch or more AND/OR 3) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 4) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind AND/OR 5)A Petition signed by at least 100 whining weenies Missed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 10:00 am MRB: 24/6 HGR: 22/7 IAD: 28/3 Morgantown: 15/8 PIT: 11/8 This is good stuff....LWX....should have a winter storm warning up soon....will be curious what they do with Loudoun/Moco...probably WWA and then play catch up later My house 36.5 degrees so there is a big temp gradient., My humidity is 29%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW 12z NAM BUFKIT KMRB -- 1.2" snow and 0.39" FZRA KBWI -- 2" snow and 0.09" FZRA (a lot of QPF is wasted on RA at 33 degrees) KIAD -- 1.3" snow and 0.19" FZRA KDCA -- 0.9" snow and 0.12" FZRA (see BWI as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Missed one. Thanks for looking out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Want my zone forecast to come true.... Tonight Snow likely with a chance of freezing rain in the evening...then freezing rain...sleet and snow after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Saturday Cloudy. Freezing rain in the morning. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For us that lull is the kiss of death. It doesn't look like the 06Z to 08Z stuff is that heavy. the real good stuff comes with the second wave if I'm reading it right. estimates: first wave ~ 0.25 second wave ~ 0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bob Ryan Tonight-Saturday looking wetter and more serious icing for Shenandoah Valley , western and northern areas around DC @abc7news #ice #dcwx Bob Ryan Look for warnings and advisories to be expanded quite a bit soon based on what we are seeing with dProg/dT @abc7news #ice #dcwx I thought it was nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My house 36.5 degrees so there is a big temp gradient., My humidity is 29%. Could the patuxent be keeping you a bit warmer? That plus your relatively close proximity to the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DC stations are now running 28-30 after a midnight-1am high of 38-40....Children's hospital just dropped to 27.....I'm pretty sure Sterling's point and click highs of 40 for DC and northern VA last night will not be reached.... Also noteworthy is the significant decline in the DPs. DCA was 36/24 at 7am and down to 34/7 at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ice ice baby, ewww. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My forecast high is going to bust out here for sure. Currently cloudy and 23 with a 33 high forecast. Not gonna happen with the cloud deck in place. Storm Watch in place. I was wondering about warning criteria. If you get an inch of snow and .1 ice that would not be considered warning level, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My forecast high is going to bust out here for sure. Currently cloudy and 23 with a 33 high forecast. Not gonna happen with the cloud deck in place. Storm Watch in place. I was wondering about warning criteria. If you get an inch of snow and .1 ice that would not be considered warning level, correct? No I think that is still advisory. You need warning criteria snow and/or warning criteria ice - that doesn't meet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW 12z NAM BUFKIT KMRB -- 1.2" snow and 0.39" FZRA KBWI -- 2" snow and 0.09" FZRA (a lot of QPF is wasted on RA at 33 degrees) KIAD -- 1.3" snow and 0.19" FZRA KDCA -- 0.9" snow and 0.12" FZRA (see BWI as well) Did you look at FDK and JYO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Did you look at FDK and JYO? I don't have either on mine... i use this -- http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Could the patuxent be keeping you a bit warmer? That plus your relatively close proximity to the bay. I had some sun earlier, I usually run colder than DCA as I'm in the woods and about 8 miles from the bay and am not close to PAX river so I don't think so. I think tomorrow my being east will be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here comes the GFS... can't tell much difference through 6 so far comparing it to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Why does it have to be... that on the image on the previous page.. with a model resolution of 1.33 km. I am ON the sfc 0°C line during the heaviest part. It's torturing me.. slowly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 CAD a tad stronger at 12z when compare to 6z at 12 hrs... note the 1028 contour shows up for the H to our north at 12z.. wasn't there at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Could the patuxent be keeping you a bit warmer? That plus your relatively close proximity to the bay. He must have taken his thermometer out of the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 CAD a tad stronger at 12z when compare to 6z at 12 hrs... note the 1028 contour shows up for the H to our north at 12z.. wasn't there at 6z Looks colder to me so far yoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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