Scuddz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This run verbatim, I'm liking being near BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Eyeballing 0.6-0.7" total QPF DCA/IAD, 0.8" BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This run verbatim, I'm liking being near BWI Same, im north of there and it is not bad at all good sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's hard not to be pessimistic about every storm the way things have shaken out here, but Frederick usually does pretty well in CAD events. I'm slowing gaining confidence I will see 2-5 flakes and an ice cicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow, if the rest of the run follow suit this may be borderline activation criteria for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow, if the rest of the run follow suit this may be borderline activation criteria for us Well joe, good sign to hear that from you, no need for yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow, if the rest of the run follow suit this may be borderline activation criteria for us GFS will be drier I think but perhaps not by a huge amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hard not to be confident in the fact that surface temps almost always (if not always) stay colder for longer during these events. Totally diggin' the colder surface trend and there is a heck of alot of cold air nearby. I'm looking forward to my 1" of glazed concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Alot of cold, dry air moving in. Looking at BWI, I see dews dropped off pretty quickly. Although the cold is obviously good for us, I am wondering how much precip we lose to saturating the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For those getting hopes up for snow, I've lived here long enough to know the snow portion of the storm won't last long at all, if it ever starts. This is a classic sleet/freezing rain event, so the story will more likely be about ice accretion than how many inches of snow. You might get a nice 1/10th of an inch of snow with a 1/4 inch of ice over the top at least in the immediate metro area. But still it's a winter weather event, even when many were saying just plain old rain several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM is probably too cold, but who knows?....GFS has been most consistent...I will go with it.....I'm not that worried about the Euro...it is playing catch up at this point....still would definitely want to be north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hard not to be confident in the fact that surface temps almost always (if not always) stay colder for longer during these events. Totally diggin' the colder surface trend and there is a heck of alot of cold air nearby. I'm looking forward to my 1" of glazed concrete. For the places that do get some snow, does that help keep the surface colder or is it purely the H to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well joe, good sign to hear that from you, no need for yikes That yikes might be for those of us who will be driving to work between 7:00-8:00 a.m. Snow; that's easy to move around in, if you know what you're doing. Freezing rain... That's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well joe, good sign to hear that from you, no need for yikes I do not want to get activated. I am hoping to take the MegaBus from Harrisburg to Pittsburgh tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For those getting hopes up for snow, I've lived here long enough to know the snow portion of the storm won't last long at all, if it ever starts. This is a classic sleet/freezing rain event, so the story will more likely be about ice accretion than how many inches of snow. You might get a nice 1/10th of an inch of snow with a 1/4 inch of ice over the top at least in the immediate metro area. But still it's a winter weather event, even when many were saying just plain old rain several days ago. Agree... it may take a while to saturate th column as nw baltimore said too... Zwyts - also agree. NAM has tendency to overdo QPF, so I think using GFS is prudent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link please? raleighwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Agree... it may take a while to saturate th column as nw baltimore said too... Zwyts - also agree. NAM has tendency to overdo QPF, so I think using GFS is prudent Wby would nam be too cold when you have multiple high pressure areas to the north in canada?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 raleighwx Thanks...coffee is not kicking in this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wby would nam be too cold when you have multiple high pressure areas to the north in canada?? NAM was too cold with the October event as well... but who knows. GFS will be helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks...coffee is not kicking in this morning. I just had to get a 2nd cup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks...coffee is not kicking in this morning. You're welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM is probably too cold, but who knows?....GFS has been most consistent...I will go with it.....I'm not that worried about the Euro...it is playing catch up at this point....still would definitely want to be north Have to say, I like the look of the NAM. Maybe it is just because I've seen a number of situations where the p-type didn't change in the middle of the precipitation, but while there was a break. Here, the NAM is really showing two distinct parts of the system, the more broad-scale forcing on the front end which is our snowfall from midnight to 4am or so, and then the more "energetic" part of the system which shows up around 7-10am. In those places still below freezing, we could see some quick moderate freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do not want to get activated. I am hoping to take the MegaBus from Harrisburg to Pittsburgh tonight. It's ok, I can cover... Better than staying down here S of BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For those getting hopes up for snow, I've lived here long enough to know the snow portion of the storm won't last long at all, if it ever starts. This is a classic sleet/freezing rain event, so the story will more likely be about ice accretion than how many inches of snow. You might get a nice 1/10th of an inch of snow with a 1/4 inch of ice over the top at least in the immediate metro area. But still it's a winter weather event, even when many were saying just plain old rain several days ago. THis has always been a north and west event....we just need to get precip here early.....even an hour of snow on the front end would lay down 1/2" or more.....But yes for me and you it is entirely possible that we go to sleet very quickly after onset....looking at soundings, the NAM is probably all snow for DC at 6z but it still has a warm nose at 750-800 MB that stays just below freezing....9Z is borderline but probably not all snow....GFS which may be more realistic is probably snow at 6z but is about to go to sleet any minute....so yes...I could definitely see a scenario for us and even for the VA burbs where we start as -SN for 30 minutes to 1 hr and then go to sleet or even never get snow....or it may be a case of mixing back and forth for a while....If I were forecasting for MBY, I would probably call for a 1/2" to 3/4" of snow/sleet accumulation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Look at 30 hours!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would be alot easier to second guess surface temps if there weren't single digits in western md and pa and even teens and low 20's around the pa/md border. We haven't had any air like this nearby this season with precip approaching. Too bad the low passes so close to our lat our we could have had our first warning crit snow of the season. Still not going to complain. Some folks near the pa boder can easily end up with 2" of concrete with a solid glaze on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wby would nam be too cold when you have multiple high pressure areas to the north in canada?? because it has a cold bias...It may be the most correct at the surface...models aren't going to get the surface temps correct...surface temps are always a nowcast situation....but at 850 i would lean toward it being too cold...I doubt I see a 3 hr period of Snow...but I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I just had to get a 2nd cup I'm on pot #3. You're welcome It's ok, I can cover... Better than staying down here S of BWI. What county are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have a hunch that the NAM may be right with temps at 2M, I'm not trying to be weenie but CAD situations seem to almost always underplayed even by mesoscale models, to an extent. January 2011, we didn't go above freezing until maybe 5-7hrs after even the coldest model had forecast. Not a very scientific post but I think this might be the case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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