Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hard not to be confident in the fact that surface temps almost always (if not always) stay colder for longer during these events. Totally diggin' the colder surface trend and there is a heck of alot of cold air nearby. I'm looking forward to my 1" of glazed concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Alot of cold, dry air moving in. Looking at BWI, I see dews dropped off pretty quickly. Although the cold is obviously good for us, I am wondering how much precip we lose to saturating the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For those getting hopes up for snow, I've lived here long enough to know the snow portion of the storm won't last long at all, if it ever starts. This is a classic sleet/freezing rain event, so the story will more likely be about ice accretion than how many inches of snow. You might get a nice 1/10th of an inch of snow with a 1/4 inch of ice over the top at least in the immediate metro area. But still it's a winter weather event, even when many were saying just plain old rain several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hard not to be confident in the fact that surface temps almost always (if not always) stay colder for longer during these events. Totally diggin' the colder surface trend and there is a heck of alot of cold air nearby. I'm looking forward to my 1" of glazed concrete. For the places that do get some snow, does that help keep the surface colder or is it purely the H to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well joe, good sign to hear that from you, no need for yikes That yikes might be for those of us who will be driving to work between 7:00-8:00 a.m. Snow; that's easy to move around in, if you know what you're doing. Freezing rain... That's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well joe, good sign to hear that from you, no need for yikes I do not want to get activated. I am hoping to take the MegaBus from Harrisburg to Pittsburgh tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For those getting hopes up for snow, I've lived here long enough to know the snow portion of the storm won't last long at all, if it ever starts. This is a classic sleet/freezing rain event, so the story will more likely be about ice accretion than how many inches of snow. You might get a nice 1/10th of an inch of snow with a 1/4 inch of ice over the top at least in the immediate metro area. But still it's a winter weather event, even when many were saying just plain old rain several days ago. Agree... it may take a while to saturate th column as nw baltimore said too... Zwyts - also agree. NAM has tendency to overdo QPF, so I think using GFS is prudent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link please? raleighwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Agree... it may take a while to saturate th column as nw baltimore said too... Zwyts - also agree. NAM has tendency to overdo QPF, so I think using GFS is prudent Wby would nam be too cold when you have multiple high pressure areas to the north in canada?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 raleighwx Thanks...coffee is not kicking in this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wby would nam be too cold when you have multiple high pressure areas to the north in canada?? NAM was too cold with the October event as well... but who knows. GFS will be helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks...coffee is not kicking in this morning. I just had to get a 2nd cup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks...coffee is not kicking in this morning. You're welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM is probably too cold, but who knows?....GFS has been most consistent...I will go with it.....I'm not that worried about the Euro...it is playing catch up at this point....still would definitely want to be north Have to say, I like the look of the NAM. Maybe it is just because I've seen a number of situations where the p-type didn't change in the middle of the precipitation, but while there was a break. Here, the NAM is really showing two distinct parts of the system, the more broad-scale forcing on the front end which is our snowfall from midnight to 4am or so, and then the more "energetic" part of the system which shows up around 7-10am. In those places still below freezing, we could see some quick moderate freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do not want to get activated. I am hoping to take the MegaBus from Harrisburg to Pittsburgh tonight. It's ok, I can cover... Better than staying down here S of BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Look at 30 hours!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would be alot easier to second guess surface temps if there weren't single digits in western md and pa and even teens and low 20's around the pa/md border. We haven't had any air like this nearby this season with precip approaching. Too bad the low passes so close to our lat our we could have had our first warning crit snow of the season. Still not going to complain. Some folks near the pa boder can easily end up with 2" of concrete with a solid glaze on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I just had to get a 2nd cup I'm on pot #3. You're welcome It's ok, I can cover... Better than staying down here S of BWI. What county are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have a hunch that the NAM may be right with temps at 2M, I'm not trying to be weenie but CAD situations seem to almost always underplayed even by mesoscale models, to an extent. January 2011, we didn't go above freezing until maybe 5-7hrs after even the coldest model had forecast. Not a very scientific post but I think this might be the case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm on pot #3. What county are you in? Not sure if you were asking me or him - I'm in Baltimore County, right at the Hereford zone line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure if you were asking me or him - I'm in Baltimore County, right at the Hereford zone line. Both actually. I am rather impressed at the cold air locked in east of the mountains. Dewpoints are in the single digits across a good portion of the LWX CWA which denotes the true arctic nature of this air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Both actually. I am rather impressed at the cold air locked in east of the mountains. Dewpoints are in the single digits across a good portion of the LWX CWA which denotes the true arctic nature of this air mass. Well he is in AA county Yeah, I just mentioned that in the short range discussion thread - the temp at home has dropped a few degrees since I woke up this morning. 25 at home with a dp of 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Forecast highs are going to be tough to reach. That would seem to help with the CAD I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 10:00 am MRB: 24/6 HGR: 22/7 IAD: 28/3 Morgantown: 15/8 PIT: 11/8 This is good stuff....LWX....should have a winter storm warning up soon....will be curious what they do with Loudoun/Moco...probably WWA and then play catch up later I would agree with regards to the WSW. I can't recall a time where they immediately went to a WSW (I'm sure it's happened and I'm just drawing a blank). LWX has always been big on the catch up. Though I wonder if they will just let an advisory ride for the entire event except for the places where there already is a watch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 10:00 am MRB: 24/6 HGR: 22/7 IAD: 28/3 Morgantown: 15/8 PIT: 11/8 This is good stuff....LWX....should have a winter storm warning up soon....will be curious what they do with Loudoun/Moco...probably WWA and then play catch up later Zones look polar opposites (updated at 9:30 AM) Loudoun has up to 1/4" ice tonight and 1/10" tomorrow... while Montgomery is trace and trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 based on current information, what would justify warnings east of the Blue Ridge (except for across northern Maryland)? I don't think out here we'll actually reach warning criteria even if one is issued. WSW criteria is 0.25" of ZR or more, which looks doable for many of the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 based on current information, what would justify warnings east of the Blue Ridge (except for across northern Maryland)? I don't think out here we'll actually reach warning criteria even if one is issued. I would think there's a small chance to hit warning criteria on ice (1/4 inch). You will likely hit warning on ice. Definitely not snow though...advisory level on snow pretty much area wide I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We are running the op NAM fire wx nest over DC because neither OPC/HPC are requesting points. Hourly progs here for those interested: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 based on current information, what would justify warnings east of the Blue Ridge (except for across northern Maryland)? I don't think out here we'll actually reach warning criteria even if one is issued. From LWX A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) Over 5 inches of snow/sleet AND/OR 2) Glaze accumulation (freezing rain) of 1/4 inch or more AND/OR 3) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 4) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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