Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 maybe we should toss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Is the Euro on it's own here? Not saying the GFS is right but.. Heck with it euro's on crack, like every model is getting better for us, Euro doing nothing. DT is not proud of his child... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 awful Euro vs the world worse than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The Euro in the 2011 event was the worst performing model and trended worse up to the event...doesn't mean anything this time but maybe something to think about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 worse than 12z? similar or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 similar or worse temp profiles are almost identical....maybe 0z a tad colder....0z is slower though and just as dry or drier..maybe 0.08 to 0.15 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM 06z clown map is out and has cut back some on the snow to the south but has increased the amount to the north. What I found interesting though is the more defined CAD signiture shown on the 00Z as oppossed to the 06. I noticed this as well when comparing the 00Z NAM and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Forecast from Tim Pandajis this morning: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1106462&l=3ef8ab8708&id=158756774155299 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Forecast from Tim Pandajis this morning: http://www.facebook....158756774155299 After last night's model runs are you still good with your snowfall map from yesterday or are you considering some changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 06Z GFS clown maps are almost spot on in our neck of the woods compared to the 00Z run. About the only difference is a slight increase of the snowfall around the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 After last night's model runs are you still good with your snowfall map from yesterday or are you considering some changes? Not looking at any real changes... people worry about run-to-run wobbles too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not looking at any real changes... people worry about run-to-run wobbles too much. If my memory serves except for the 18Z suite it seems they have been fairly consistant throughout, though trending just a touch colder and showing more of a CAD sig as we get nearer the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Tonight: A chance of snow between 10pm and 1am, then snow and sleet. Low around 27. Calm wind becoming southeast between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then a chance of freezing rain between 10am and 1pm. High near 38. East wind 7 to 9 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM 06z clown map is out and has cut back some on the snow to the south but has increased the amount to the north. What I found interesting though is the more defined CAD signiture shown on the 00Z as oppossed to the 06. I noticed this as well when comparing the 00Z NAM and the GFS. Sorry, that's not the 6z map. This is. Now, if you look at a specific spot, like DC, it is worse, but overall I think its better because it is more snow, heavier snow, and the whole region with heavier snow has shifted south. About a 30-50 mile south shift in this makes this a big deal. But not having the Euro with us more is a little nerve racking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM has been a little flippy, but not that bad. The GFS and Euro snow maps have been quite consistent with each keeping the "snow line" right alone the PA/MD border (the real snow). You would think that a small shift south either in the next few model runs or with regard to the actual weather tonight and tomorrow is at least within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sorry, that's not the 6z map. This is. Now, if you look at a specific spot, like DC, it is worse, but overall I think its better because it is more snow, heavier snow, and the whole region with heavier snow has shifted south. About a 30-50 mile south shift in this makes this a big deal. But not having the Euro with us more is a little nerve racking. It is posted, right under the 00Z clown map for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This one is gonna be close. It could end up painful, or it could end up a thrill. Can't really change it, so we just have to wait, watch, and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Keeping an eye on the dry air in the low-levels at the onset of precip... could/should eat a little of the early QPF through about 06z. Looks like all the possible snow for DC/BWI is between 06z-09z... latest NAM looks to put down around 0.1" QPF over DC and BWI during that time, with just under a tenth from the GFS. Less faith in DC as the warm air intrusion works in before 09z. Considering putting the 1" line down towards the northern edge of the Baltimore metro and through north-central MD. Frederick will likely stay less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM has been a little flippy, but not that bad. The GFS and Euro snow maps have been quite consistent with each keeping the "snow line" right alone the PA/MD border (the real snow). You would think that a small shift south either in the next few model runs or with regard to the actual weather tonight and tomorrow is at least within the realm of possibility. What I am finding interesting is the fact that the off runs of the NAM do not seem to show the CAD as well. I think that may be why we are seeing that reduction west of the bay to the lee of the mountains down DC and N VA. This is the first time I have ever noticed this and am not sure if it may be just an anomoly or if it has to do with the model itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 we're at a point where model performance is pretty important NAM puts radar shield here at 7 AM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F20%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=006&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M here's the radar http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php seems a hair south than what NAM proged, but NAM did a decent job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 boy it's cold in PA http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 we're at a point where model performance is pretty important NAM puts radar shield here at 7 AM http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M here's the radar http://radar.weather.../Conus/full.php seems a hair south than what NAM proged, but NAM did a decent job Yeah overall not too bad, what are you thinking in terms of snow for Baltimore? Latest NAM from 06z almost plays your miracle and shifts the heavy stuff south, 25 more miles are were rockin, but the 2-3'' it had I'd take too because 1-2'' seems likely for Baltimore IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah overall not too bad, what are you thinking in terms of snow for Baltimore? Latest NAM from 06z almost plays your miracle and shifts the heavy stuff south, 25 more miles are were rockin, but the 2-3'' it had I'd take too because 1-2'' seems likely for Baltimore IMHO. seems like an inch or 2 affair to me 2 or more north of the city and 1 or more imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Every system so far has been wet. I am sticking with that trend. Not saying that the NAM is right but not buying the drieness of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 06z NAM for BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 06z GFS for BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 06z GFS for BWI I posted last night that the 0Z GFS looked like it wanted to switch back to flurries at the end and the 6Z has it doing just that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I posted last night that the 0Z GFS looked like it wanted to switch back to flurries at the end and the 6Z has it doing just that Yay! I don't even have rain in my forecast for tomorrow - I think I may get lucky and stay at or below 32 for the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 hmm, ot yesterday's CFS has taken us down a notch for FEB temps from +2-3K, which is what it has been showing for over a month, to +1-2K that's notable http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yay! I don't even have rain in my forecast for tomorrow - I think I may get lucky and stay at or below 32 for the whole event. good luck with that KT. You are going to have to go 2 miles to the north of you to stay mainly frozen. There is that stupid line just north of you. We never stayed all frozen in Cockeysville when i lived there for those years unless it was a miller A type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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