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Snowfall predictions for 1/21/12


Parsley

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Shamless plug...forecast included.

Good write up. I wish it's sober realism for mby wasn't so accurate...:(

" For those in South Jersey -- generally south of Route 70 and east of Route 295 -- going to be tough to get much in the way of snow outside of a coating to an inch on the front end. The transition to rain should be a relatively quick one..."

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Latest Wxsim forecast module for NW Chester County has a total of 6" to 7" of snow and sleet with a little light ZR at the end. Here is the breakdown

- Start time is near 2am with 1" on the ground by 3am with Heavy Snow falling and the temp at 24.6

- 6am Heavy Snow Temp 24.4 with accumulations up to 3"

- 9am Heavy Snow Temp 26.4 snow totals up to 5"

- 11am mix with IP - temp 28.6

- mixed precip ending by noon

Total snowfall 6 to 7"

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Latest Wxsim forecast module for NW Chester County has a total of 6" to 7" of snow and sleet with a little light ZR at the end. Here is the breakdown

- Start time is near 2am with 1" on the ground by 3am with Heavy Snow falling and the temp at 24.6

- 6am Heavy Snow Temp 24.4 with accumulations up to 3"

- 9am Heavy Snow Temp 26.4 snow totals up to 5"

- 11am mix with IP - temp 28.6

- mixed precip ending by noon

Total snowfall 6 to 7"

Hey Paul - Does that translate 15 miles to your south? If so, I will take it.

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Hey Carmen,

Wxsim seems like an outlier with it's higher snow forecasts (NWS only 2 to 4") but we will see....one thing I doubt happening is what Steve at NJPA weather has for Chesco - 1 to 3" of snow and then a change to plain rain. Think whatever falls will be frozen

Hope all else is well with you!

Paul

Hey Paul - Does that translate 15 miles to your south? If so, I will take it.

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Hey Carmen,

Wxsim seems like an outlier with it's higher snow forecasts (NWS only 2 to 4") but we will see....one thing I doubt happening is what Steve at NJPA weather has for Chesco - 1 to 3" of snow and then a change to plain rain. Think whatever falls will be frozen

Hope all else is well with you!

Paul

I agree. I don't think we see any rain.

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Looks like Hurricane and Sheena are using animation that looks a heck of a lot like the 18Z NAM. Appears to be a significant amount of ice in New Castle County and northward into PA north of Philly. I'm glad I'm not a forecaster since it seems difficult to distinguish b/w conditions conducive to sleet vs ZR.

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