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CWG potential ice storm discussion


usedtobe

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nice post...pretty much what I expected....explains everything well

Thanks, I think for us in the city, the 18Z gfs and nam are pretty bleak unless you are going to be up at 1:00 Am tomorrow nite as the slight differences in the pressure pattern and 10 kt winds as opposed to 5, suggests that the cold air may erode faster than the earlier nam was predicting. That said, it may be hiccup or it may be real. My guess is the latter but I don't really know.

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Thanks, I think for us in the city, the 18Z gfs and nam are pretty bleak unless you are going to be up at 1:00 Am tomorrow nite as the slight differences in the pressure pattern and 10 kt winds as opposed to 5, suggests that the cold air may erode faster than the earlier nam was predicting. That said, it may be hiccup or it may be real. My guess is the latter but I don't really know.

I'll be up....I'm hoping for a 10-11pm start but that may be ambitious....My gut tells me IMBY I start as sleet....But maybe I get lucky and get 45 minutes of -SN before changing to IP....it is fun to watch sleet accumulate....surface temps are always tricky...maybe the cold will hold for longer then progged

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I'll be up....I'm hoping for a 10-11pm start but that may be ambitious....My gut tells me IMBY I start as sleet....But maybe I get lucky and get 45 minutes of -SN before changing to IP....it is fun to watch sleet accumulate....surface temps are always tricky...maybe the cold will hold for longer then progged

this is for DC at 9z...not sure if it is rain/zr or sleet...seems like a good portion of the column is above 0

GFS_3_2012011918_F39_39.0000N_77.0000W.png

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If that sounding were absolutely perfect, it would be rain, drop the surface temp 2 degrees and it might be freezing though the droplets might not be in the cold layer long enough to droplets below freezing. The 18Z gfs and nam don't look pretty and I can see why Bob Ryan is downplaying the event. If this holds until tomorrow, the CWG will probably back down from what I wrote.

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