Nic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 sooo foggy if there is a tornado no one will see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Convection really ramping up now south and west of LZK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Are these storms going through any dual pol areas tonight? Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Just had a shower go through Muncie. Ready for a fun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Are these storms going through any dual pol areas tonight? Sent from my ADR6400L MEG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like some convection starting south of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 MEG. as well as BNA/OHX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Tornado Watch just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 A storm southeast of Hot Springs AR has an early look to it. It will have to avoid the other storms around it to reach its full potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Tornado Watch just issued. PDS... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 A storm southeast of Hot Springs AR has an early look to it. It will have to avoid the other storms around it to reach its full potential though. Is this the correct thread for Arkansas storms, because I will be doing both depending upon where a storm is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 90/60 tornado probs...crazy for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... NUMEROUS TORNADOES INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. ...THOMPSON Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood High Moderate Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind High Moderate Severe Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Is this the correct thread for Arkansas storms, because I will be doing both depending upon where a storm is located. Arkansas is more central/western forum but there really isn't any discussion there. What's happening in Arkansas is probably more relevant to people in the SE forum so I'd say post images/warnings there unless something is about to cross into this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Arkansas is more central/western forum but there really isn't any discussion there. What's happening in Arkansas is probably more relevant to people in the SE forum so I'd say post images/warnings there unless something is about to cross into this region. Any chance you can try and push to put severe threads in the main forum, like cane threads? Posting in 2-3 different threads, for one severe weather outbreak, can get time consuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 222337Z - 230130Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SERN MO AND NERN AR DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND DURING THE NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A 993 MB LOW POSITIONED OVER ERN KS...WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-NEWD INTO SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN MS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S EXIST S OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S EXIST OVER THE MID-SOUTH ACCOMPANIED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE/PSEUDO WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD OUT OF CNTRL AR TOWARD THE SRN IL/WRN KY BORDER. AS A POTENT UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW OVER KS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO ERN IA/NRN IL. AS THIS OCCURS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NWD INTO WRN KY...ALLOWING UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE...RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH...AS WELL AS MORE SUBTLE ASCENT ALONG BOTH THE PRIMARY AND PSEUDO WARM FRONTS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING BY 00-03Z TIME PERIOD OVER NERN AR/SERN MO AND POSSIBLY WRN KY/SRN IL. STRONG VEERING DEEP LAYER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY 70+ KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED ABOVE A 50+ KT S-SWLY LLJ WILL FAVOR FAST NELY STORM MOTIONS FROM 40-60 KT. THE STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS AND LINES POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /WITH 0-1 KM SRH AOA 400 M2 S-2/ WILL PROMOTE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. PRIMARY CONCERN REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT IS MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS /I.E. SLIGHTLY COOL NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES/. HOWEVER...IF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...THEN WATCH TYPE WILL BE TORNADO. ..GARNER.. 01/22/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Arkansas is more central/western forum but there really isn't any discussion there. What's happening in Arkansas is probably more relevant to people in the SE forum so I'd say post images/warnings there unless something is about to cross into this region. Yeah it'd be nice to go to the central, cuts out some of the hoi polloi in the SE forum. I really enjoy people commenting about how it's raining at their house while a verified tornado is on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Any chance you can try and push to put severe threads in the main forum, like cane threads? Posting in 2-3 different threads, for one severe weather outbreak, can get time consuming. I think the cane comparison is not entirely valid but maybe it is worth revisiting as we head into the season. We'll see. It's sorta abnormal to have a severe threat spanning multiple subforums at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah it'd be nice to go to the central, cuts out some of the hoi polloi in the SE forum. I really enjoy people commenting about how it's raining at their house while a verified tornado is on the ground. This +1000, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Just a random question but can tornadoes form with below freezing surface temps, like in a freezing rain event? Or is there not enough energy with those temperatures to form one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Just a random question but can tornadoes form with below freezing surface temps, like in a freezing rain event? Or is there not enough energy with those temperatures to form one. Freezing rain requires a specific temperature profile - namely one with low level inversion featuring cold air at the surface and significantly warmer air above. Such an inversion would make tornado development extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Just a random question but can tornadoes form with below freezing surface temps, like in a freezing rain event? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 2 Tornado warnings south, southwest of Little Rock! warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5... VALID 230048Z - 230145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES. SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AR AND INCIPIENT REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING...WITH PROBABLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO NERN AR. AS OF 0045Z...LEAD BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDED IN A NNE-SSW ORIENTATION FROM RANDOLPH TO COLUMBIA COUNTIES. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH INITIAL TORNADO WARNINGS HAVING BEEN RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS S-CNTRL AR. MODIFIED 00Z LZK/SHV/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 750-1250 J/KG IS PREVALENT AHEAD OF THIS BAND FROM S-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL AR. WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NOW IN EXCESS OF 500-600 M2/S2...EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS BREEDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED/LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The cell heading towards Bearden looks dangerous ATM. 110kts g2g. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 23z RUC... BWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 AR/TN on south is being discussed here... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32067-jan-22nd23rd-severe-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I agree this needs to be all one topic as SmokeEater said it is time consuming to switch from region to region, plus where do the arbitrary boundaries lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 IL/IN/KY/MO tor watch... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM AR TO SE MO...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND A COOL AIR MASS ERODES. THOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SRN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE IS EXPECTED...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS AND 60-70 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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