Calderon Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Where is the main discussion for this event going to be? Seems like the SE thread has more weenies then real discussion. Only 3 total pages. yeah, really nothing going on concerning the SE side. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Keep it here SmokeEater as storms will begin in the Midwest area. And I value your radar postings when things get active. Thanks man, times like this I wish severe wx events were held in its own area, like cane discussions. But it is what it is, we make due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That's not exactly a good assumption to make. Areas south of the TN/KY and AR/MO border will be discussed in the SE forum. I didn't mean all of the posters posting there. Don't take offense to my post. There is hardly any discussion there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I didn't mean all of the posters posting there. Don't take offense to my post. There is hardly any discussion there though. TalkWx seems to be getting the bulk of the discussion from the SE side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like the northern part of the slight risk now extends along U.S. 30 from the Calumet region to Ft. Wayne in IN. If we can get enough mixing those stronger winds might get down to the surface even this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 222026Z - 222230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE ARKLATEX THEN RACE NEWD TOWARD WRN TN/NWRN MS AFTER DARK. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 00Z. LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX AND WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SPREAD INTO SRN/ERN AR...AS NOTED BY SFC DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S...WHILE A STUBBORN WEDGE OF COOLER AIR HAS YET TO BE DISPLACED OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/NWRN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS GREATEST AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO THE S-E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING BAND OF LOW LEVEL CU ALONG THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 OVER NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER FORCING THAT WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX. WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS LINE...OR PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR THE LA BORDER AS EXHIBITED BY SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN FROM NEAR TYR TO JUST WEST OF SHV. NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Smoke, are you going to be posting radar images over in the SE thread? Cuz, I do think it will need a radar updater. Superstorm probably will do some as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like more super computer problems for the HRRR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like more super computer problems for the HRRR... Bad timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Forget that, I just refreshed the page and it seems to be working again. EDIT: Well, kinda working. they have output only through hour 7 for the last two runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 HRRR continues to show cells in front of the main line in Ohio. Scary thing is a F4 tornado hit this county in January in the 1970s I believe, strongest recorded tornado for this county. Not many people living there back then, rural area. Correction F3 on Febuary 22, 1971 7 miles away from center of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Smoke, are you going to be posting radar images over in the SE thread?Cuz, I do think it will need a radar updater. Superstorm probably will do some as well. If they are active over there i will, no prob. I just don't want to be the only one posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 HRRR continues to show cells in front of the main line in Ohio. Scary thing is a F4 tornado hit this county in January in the 1970s I believe, strongest recorded tornado for this county. Not many people living there back then, rural area. Correction F3 on Febuary 22, 1971 7 miles away from center of city. nothing like 3am supercell development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 nothing like 3am supercell development Scary looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 40 degree dewpoints getting closer to I-70 in IL/IN. Progress baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 cu in se OK/ne TX mark the edge of the steep low-level lapse rates and good 0-3km CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 From late afternoon AFD from IWX... HOWEVER...THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH AN INVERSION REMAINING GIVEN SNOW PACK AND STRONG EAST COMPONENT TO THE LL FLOW. HENCE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY LIMITED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND IN THE SOUTHERN FA...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED QLCS WITH MID LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING JET CORES. RETAINED GUSTY WIND TS MENTION ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Its a shame that we may not get any good visible sattelite images of this overnight system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Jesus...LOT even mentioning chance at a tornado in southeast CWA. What I'd pay to see a tornado suck up snow. THIS SETUP WOULD FURTHER HELP FOR WINDS TO PUNCH THE INVERSION AND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE WITHIN SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS AT CHAMPAIGN SHOW ALMOST 70 KTS AND 3000 FT...SO PLENTY AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TOO FOR THE CHANCE OF A TORNADO AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...AS FORECAST PROFILES AND SYNOPTICS APPROACH THOSE THAT CAN PRODUCE COOL SEASON EPISODES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Still 34° and can't see the tops of cell phone towers here. Was 40° in Greenfield a couple hours ago. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE NORTHWEST ALABAMA EASTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN INDIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF MICHIGAN...OHIO...AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAM IMPULSE...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW...A BROAD CURRENT OF FAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND LOUISIANA AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR. AS THE STORMS BUILD AND INTERACT WITH THE JET STREAM WINDS...SOME OF THEM LIKELY WILL BECOME LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...POSING A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE LINE LATER TONIGHT...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH DAWN MONDAY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..GUYER/MEAD/CORFIDI.. 01/22/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Going to see rapid changes north of the OH River over the course of the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I could definitely see an Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory being warranted for overnight, with the HRRR printing out localized 1" rain totals and at least another 0.5" of liquid in the snowpack in most places up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Temp has jumped 4 degrees in the last half hour here, now sitting at 52/48. Visibility is just over 1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Showers starting to fire in Central Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 mid/upper jet beginning to encroach on western AR, will see rapid increase in forced ascent as it continues to push eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This setup is very concerning, especially for the oh and tn valleys. Shear vectors look like they may be more perpendicular than first thought, leading to more discrete structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Temp has jumped 4 degrees in the last half hour here, now sitting at 52/48. Visibility is just over 1/4 mile. Wow, what a difference. 70 miles to your north Im at 35 degrees still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wow, what a difference. 70 miles to your north Im at 35 degrees still. Took the car through Mikes to knock the salt off it, hit drizzle all the way home. What luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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