TheWeatherPimp Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah, us further south I'm betting will lose the bulk of the snowpack before nightfall. I'd be curious how the snow would effect storms directly on top of it. Guess it would depend on how the warm LLJ is mixing down to combat The melting snow could help increase low level moisture but could also help strengthen the inversion. Kind of a catch 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinicity Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 February 21, 1993 had snow cover across most of Ohio and Indiana when a low pressure system brought severe thunderstorms to southern Ohio/Indiana and southward. Storm Reports http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php?lat=40.000&lon=98.000&zoom=35&mode=1&bdate=19930221/1200&edate=19930222/1200&torflag=1&windflag=1&hailflag=1&t01=0&t02=5&t03=0&t04=9999&t05=0&t06=9999&t07=0&t08=9999&t09=0&t10=9999&h01=0&h02=9999&w01=0&w02=9999&showt=-1&showh=-1&showw=-1 Snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The melting snow could help increase low level moisture but could also help strengthen the inversion. Kind of a catch 22. Yeah, a tornado ripping through snow melt fog would be an interesting sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 There is a MOD for tomorrow, map not out yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 ..MID MS AND OH VALLEY A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU EARLY THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN THE MID-MS VALLEY. VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID LINEAR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM ERN IL SWD INTO WRN KY. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LINE SURGES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME SUGGEST THAT A COOL SFC INVERSION WILL EXIST IN SPITE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR THIS REASON...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL EXCEPT IN SRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I can see potential into northern IN but that may depend a lot on instability/any BL effects snowpack may have that far north. But, strong forcing could help overcome any negatives.. It will be interesting to see if t-storms get going this far north. My location looks to be too far north and west for t-storms, but I remember winter t-storms before. They always came in with a mild air punch and always after the snowpack melted - even if the snowpack was around less than 24 hours before. Light freezing rain here tomorrow going to showers late, high 37°. Might be tough to get t-storms past Lafayette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Pretty significant tornado outlook for MS/TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Can't blame them for not going really aggressive on the northern end. Just gonna have to watch the trends very closely and adjust as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I'm kind of surprised we don't have a MDT for the wind potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I'm kind of surprised we don't have a MDT for the wind potential as well. This plus if anything in reply to Hoosier's post above it looks like they trimmed back the northern extent some, a bit surprising to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 This map will look much different 24 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 This plus if anything in reply to Hoosier's post above it looks like they trimmed back the northern extent some, a bit surprising to me Sfc temp/inversion questions aside, I thought the 5% wind would've been extended farther north given the modest instability and strong wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Sfc temp/inversion questions aside, I thought the 5% wind would've been extended farther north given the modest instability and strong wind fields. Yes, I hope they don't get burned like the other day because this system could impact many more areas than that complex that ran the Eastern end of Lake Erie. Speaking of instability both the NAM and GFS bring 250-500 MUCAPE into the Southern part of Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Btw is this going to be a regional thread or should it maybe get moved to the main board? I know last event there was a main board thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 IWX WRF brings 50 degree temps/dewpoints into southern lower Michigan with mid 50's farther south into central Indiana. That would imply a weak inversion at best and would heighten the severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 IWX WRF brings 50 degree temps/dewpoints into southern lower Michigan with mid 50's farther south into central Indiana. That would imply a weak inversion at best and would heighten the severe threat. Link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Link please? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/program_areas/model/wrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 IWX WRF brings 50 degree temps/dewpoints into southern lower Michigan with mid 50's farther south into central Indiana. That would imply a weak inversion at best and would heighten the severe threat. Also brings in TTs as high as 55 into Southern Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 06z NAM ticks up the MUCAPE across IN/S. MI overnight even more with pockets of 500 North to as much as 800 J/kg across parts of Central/Southern Indiana. A wedge of surface based CAPE makes it up to Southern IL/IN late in the evening and overnight tonight. I am very concerned about the Moderate Risk area however, dewpoints are progged to be near or even above 65 all the way up to Memphis this evening. I think that area from Paducah to Vicksburg will really be under the gun for possible tornadoes from 00Z to 06Z this evening, maybe even a bit further North into S. IL by 06Z. Edit: both GFS/NAM trending slower/stronger also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 From the 4:11 am est Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Northern Indiana... FOR TODAY SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS SFC LOW EDGES EAST FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE THROUGH WRN KS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE CWA. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVERSPREADING MELTING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVE. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE UPR GRTLKS TNGT AND EARLY MONDAY... ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL SWEEP E-NE ACROSS OUR CWA... WITH STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS AND PSBLY TSTMS. GIVEN STRONG WIND PROFILE TO BE IN PLACE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS CAUSING DAMAGING WINDS...HWVR MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THIS IN OUR AREA IS LINGERING SFC BASED INVERSION WHICH WILL HINDER DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION. AFTER FROPA... INVERSION WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. DVLPG STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SFC WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH IN OUR CWA MONDAY WITH GALES IN NSH ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 MEG (Memphis office): POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS A SHORTWAVE LOBE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE OZARKS. BY 03Z /9 PM CST/...NAM PROGS A SOUTHWESTERLY 65 TO 70KT 850MB JET AXIS FROM NORTHWEST MS TO SOUTHEAST MO. 22/06Z NAM SOUNDING FOR MEMPHIS SHOWED 500 TO 700 M2/S2 3KM SHEAR. IN OTHER WORDS...NO SHORTAGE OF DYNAMICS AND SHEAR. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE OVERCAST TODAY...DESTABILIZATION WILL ARRIVE ALMOST ENTIRELY BY ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. 60F PLUS DEWPOINTS WERE CONFINED WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE GULF COAST...BUT SHOULD SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. NAM PROJECTS 65F SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHWEST MS DELTA BY 21Z /3PM CST/. ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT... PROVIDING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. 22/06Z NAM PROGS MIXED LAYER MU CAPES OF 1500 TO 1800 J/KG OVER EASTERN AR BY 6PM CST. THE AMOUNT OF CAPE WILL MODULATE STORM SEVERITY...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AMPLE SHEAR...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS LATE TOWARD SUNSET. QLCS SHOULD WORK EAST TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 2 AM. SEE LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 My concern with this storm is that it is going to be another nocturnal event for this area. The last thing I want to see is another 11/06/05 EVV. Hopefully any spinups this far north (OH River on north) will be weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 WOW this is January right??? Extended the MDT further north for Wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 988 low now in se Colorado per 8 am EST readings. This could be shaping up to be quite a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 My concern with this storm is that it is going to be another nocturnal event for this area. The last thing I want to see is another 11/06/05 EVV. Hopefully any spinups this far north (OH River on north) will be weak. It wouldn't be Indiana if it wasn't a screaming fast squall line at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 More used to seeing Dixie alley under the gun in Jan not the Ten valley. This is going to get ugly real fast. Just briefly look over the 6z guidance it looks like something more common in April. Crazy ass weather this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Nice to see they adjusted Northward from this morning's outlook. Really shaping up to be a potentially significant day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 From my 0z run.. 5z 2-7z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Interesting fact I found out this morning. The last time a moderate risk was issued for Indiana in a January was January 29, 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 As a catastrophe property insurance adjuster... This the last thing I want to see in January. Wont get to spend any time at home before I am deployed again... But regardless... This has potential to get real ugly. And further north, with frozen ground and a snowpack, plus heavy rain... could certainly be looking at some flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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