weatherpsycho Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Severe weather possible and some nutty high winds to acompany after whatever squall pushes on in. Would be fun if we can get some tstorms into SE-MI. Could also have a nice west wind LES event on the back side. Lake MI is wide open for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This sucker is gonna have some wicked winds. I would not be shocked if we surge well into 50s in the heart of the Warm sector. Break out into some low angle Jan sun wont help heat things up, but it will sure remind allot of us when the real weather fun starts. Severe FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Sorry i dont care to ever see t-storms in jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks good for Wishforsnow in the Keweenaw! I will believe when I see it. Most times big system storms hasn't been materializing. Hoping we don't get freakin rain. That will make a mess out of everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Sub 990 mb on the GFS. Some 200 MUCAPE on the NAM into parts of Ohio and lower ontario for Monday. Also showing some nasty 850 winds around 70kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I will believe when I see it. Most times big system storms hasn't been materializing. Hoping we don't get freakin rain. That will make a mess out of everything here. Oh yeah rain is a disaster there. Been up there before during a mid-winter meltdown with rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 May see a period of freezing rain/freezing drizzle on the front end especially north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 00z NAM brings MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg into Ohio late Sunday/early Monday while the GFS is less. NAM appears to be on the quick side with other models being slower. Both models struggle to get 50 degree dewpoints up to I-70 but this could very well be underdone given model tendency to underestimate moisture return with strong flow fields and especially since we have a reservoir of pretty decent moisture in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 heh, I just noticed that SPC amended the day 3 outlook this afternoon to include a slight risk area. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES... AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... 20/12Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE MORE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A MORE INTENSE AND LOWER LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO GULF COAST REGION DURING THE D1/D2 PERIOD WILL LIKELY WEAKEN...RESULTING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SHELF WATERS. GIVEN THE MORE SRN TRACK OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE NWD-RETURNING WARM SECTOR WILL COINCIDE WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WITH SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ..MEAD/GOSS.. 01/20/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Although the best severe threat looks to be south, it is a little strange to sit here at 18 degrees with several inches of snowpack and be looking at models and even thinking that there could be something not far away come Sunday night. Helps keep the skills fresh I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Although the best severe threat looks to be south, it is a little strange to sit here at 18 degrees with several inches of snowpack and be looking at models and even thinking that there could be something not far away come Sunday night. Helps keep the skills fresh I guess lol Yeah I have never seen a situation where you go from teens to potential severe in 48-60 hours, maybe 4-5 days sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Day 2 severe outlook is a clone of the old day 3. I mean identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah I have never seen a situation where you go from teens to potential severe in 48-60 hours, maybe 4-5 days sure. Yeah, it's usually the other way around. What a strange winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah, it's usually the other way around. What a strange winter. I can't remember a winter where we have had so many night time highs too, that is as bizarre as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 23/5z Winds are veering more on the 0z run than past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 23/5z Winds are veering more on the 0z run than past runs. Quick question, your MCAPE map is that most unstable or mixed layer, looks like most unstable but just want to make 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah I have never seen a situation where you go from teens to potential severe in 48-60 hours, maybe 4-5 days sure. Its sickening. You go from a sugar snowstorm with a temp of 16 degrees on Friday night to potential severe early Monday morning? No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This system looks like a low impact/non-event for Iowa and northwest Illinois. Thunderstorms and heavier rain stay well east of here, and not much wrap around precip to work with. Should keep most of the snow cover intact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Oh yeah rain is a disaster there. Been up there before during a mid-winter meltdown with rain! Then it is a pain when it refrezees and turns the parking lots into ice rinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well, I think we'll officially turn this into the severe thread since the winter aspect doesn't look like much. SPC mentions a possible upgrade to moderate risk in some areas especially south/west. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-UPPER JET/ NOW OVER THE CONUS WEST COAST WILL REACH THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH/STRONG JET ALOFT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. ...OH VALLEY... FARTHER NORTH...THE EXACT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION IS INHERENTLY MORE QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WHICH PARTIALLY COINCIDES WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK/BRUNT OF DPVA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. THAT SAID...A ROBUST WIND FIELD/LATE NIGHT DEEPENING PHASE OF THE CYCLONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RESPECTABLE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES EVEN WHERE NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY IS SCANT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 15% probs getting closer. Thrill a minute weather continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well, I think we'll officially turn this into the severe thread since the winter aspect doesn't look like much. You jinxed it lol 12z Euro bombs this thing to 988mb over Traverse City, MI with a snow band on the back side from GRB southward to IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 You jinxed it lol 12z Euro bombs this thing to 988mb over Traverse City, MI with a snow band on the back side from GRB southward to IL. Darn, guess I should've waited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 While we currently sit in the 20's with low dewpoints north of the OH River, here is what is ready to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Quick question, your MCAPE map is that most unstable or mixed layer, looks like most unstable but just want to make 100% sure. I believe it would MU CAPE: http://www.ncl.ucar.edu/Document/Functions/Built-in/wrf_cape_2d.shtml#Description " Computes maximum convective available potential energy (CAPE)" I believe those are the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Unreal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 15% probs getting closer. Thrill a minute weather continues. I guess you can say I'm right on the edge literally. SLGT risk area runs right through Lebanon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Probably the most significant severe potential in some time across the CONUS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 You jinxed it lol 12z Euro bombs this thing to 988mb over Traverse City, MI with a snow band on the back side from GRB southward to IL. Its still Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Its still Winter Yeah, I just looked at the Euro on Wunderground, came here and thought WTF happened to the winter storm thread before realizing the subject of the thread changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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