Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I agree this needs to be all one topic as SmokeEater said it is time consuming to switch from region to region, plus where do the arbitrary boundaries lie. multiple tabs ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 multiple tabs ftw. Just because we can do that doesn't mean it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 SEL6 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 730 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL 200 AM CST. SEVERAL TORNADOES SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM AR TO SE MO...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND A COOL AIR MASS ERODES. THOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SRN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE IS EXPECTED...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS AND 60-70 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Line looks like it is starting to grow/strengthen Northward as the instability slides Northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 40 degree dewpoints have made it to LAF with mid 50's extreme southwest IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 40 degree dewpoints have made it to LAF with mid 50's extreme southwest IN. A bit ahead of schedule btw. EVV is 58/56 and the raw NAM output for EVV was 55/54 as of one hour from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 RUC has a corridor of 0-3km SRH of 750-1000 from TN northward later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Warm front position is pretty clear looking at the surface obs. Won't be long till it scoots through IND. Small cluster of storms south of Urbana look to scoot west of LAF. Impressive seeing obs in the 40s and very thick fog along with the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IL AND WRN/CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 230225Z - 230430Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IL AND WRN/CNTRL IND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW. AT 02Z...A 996 MB SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE /AROUND 8-10 C AT 850 MB/ ABOVE A COOL STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS /TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 40F OVER NRN IND TO AROUND 60F OVER SRN IL AND SRN IND/. AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 06Z...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE NWD OUT OF SRN IL INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IL...AND THEN MOVE EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL IND. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER IL/IND...WHICH WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR AN APPRECIABLE SVR WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG/DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE EJECTING CYCLONE...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NIGHT FOR SIGNS OF GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED DESTABILIZATION. ..GARNER.. 01/23/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Amazing to see an MD that far north with that much snow on the ground. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Amazing to see an MD that far north with that much snow on the ground. Unreal. Snow melting has really picked up in the last a couple of hours. Can see the grass and streets are pretty much clear now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Amazing to see an MD that far north with that much snow on the ground. Unreal. Not to mention temps are in the 30s across the northern part of the MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Area to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Here is an RUC forecast sounding for Bloomington Indiana valid 6z Monday. The inversion from about 850 mb to the surface is noticeable but it is really more of an isothermal layer. Profiles will probably end up looking similar to this over much of the new MD area, perhaps just a bit cooler. So the question is how effective will this stable layer be at preventing damaging winds from making it to the surface? We will find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Storms west of evansville are booking it. Clocking in at around 60 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...6... VALID 230237Z - 230400Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5...6...CONTINUES. NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF QLCS FROM SWRN IL INTO NERN AR SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NEWD WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE BROKEN SRN PORTION OF THE LINE ACROSS E-CNTRL/SERN AR EVOLVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER. AS OF 0230Z...A 450-MI LONG QLCS EXTENDED FROM SWRN IL INTO S-CNTRL AR. GREATEST RELATIVE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS NOW PROGRESSING INTO PARTS OF E-CNTRL/SERN AR. EFFECTIVE SRH WILL REMAIN EXTREME AOA 500 M2/S2 AND WITHIN THE BROADEST WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 62-64 F SURFACE DEW POINTS...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES REMAINS HIGH AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES SWRN TN/NWRN MS. THE SOLID LINEAR STRUCTURE FARTHER N WITHIN A COMPARATIVELY NARROW SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR SHOULD PREDOMINATELY FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH OBSERVED METAR GUSTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE THUS FAR IN SERN MO/NERN AR...THE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE LINE AMIDST STRONG MID-LEVEL DCVA MAY AID IN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES THE MS RIVER TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FARTHER N OF WW 6...PLEASE SEE MCD 50. ..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012 ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK... LAT...LON 35228948 33519037 33139115 33259203 33399251 36279063 37708980 38198946 38458862 38528812 38278806 37738827 35228948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Impressive looking storms approaching Mount Vernon, IL. Hail reports: 0735 PM HAIL FREDERICKTOWN 37.56N 90.30W 01/22/2012 E0.70 INCH MADISON MO TRAINED SPOTTER 0847 PM HAIL NASHVILLE 38.35N 89.38W 01/22/2012 E0.75 INCH WASHINGTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Heck of an inversion here... 11C at 925mb, with surface temps at around 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 FWIW, I'm looking at the 00z IWX WRF and it appears to be about 3-6 degrees too warm right now in much of IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thunderstorms starting to bow out WNW of Mount Vernon. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lsx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 FWIW, I'm looking at the 00z IWX WRF and it appears to be about 3-6 degrees too warm right now in much of IL/IN. Yes it is. I'm still a touch under 40 here on my thermometer, 39.7º currently...FWIW. EDIT: looks like the 12z LSX WRF has a better handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wayy to cold for anything interesting here, still 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Heck of an inversion here... 11C at 925mb, with surface temps at around 35. Temp has risen to 36 here... slowly melting the snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wayy to cold for anything interesting here, still 37. You do realize that KDAY is already at 43 and temperatures are rising everywhere else, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 FWIW, I'm looking at the 00z IWX WRF and it appears to be about 3-6 degrees too warm right now in much of IL/IN. Yeah that's about right for here too. Still have an icy driveway from the drizzle. Wind off the lake is helping keep temperatures in check and helping to create denser fog. Severe Thunderstorm Warning for downstate IL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ILC055-077-081-145-199-230345- /O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0007.120123T0311Z-120123T0345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 911 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 945 PM CST. * AT 908 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF PINCKNEYVILLE TO CEDAR LAKE AREA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. AT 834 PM...THIS LINE OF STORMS BLEW DOWN A POWER LINE DOWN WEST OF PERRYVILLE MISSOURI. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... MURPHYSBORO...CARBONDALE...DU QUOIN...CHRISTOPHER...REND LAKE AREA...WEST FRANKFORT...BENTON...MOUNT VERNON...ELKVILLE...DE SOTO...TAMAROA...HURST...CAMBRIA...ROYALTON...ZEIGLER...SESSER... VALIER...WOODLAWN...WEST CITY AND VERGENNES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 61 Degrees at HNB, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Really dangerous lightning here in Carbondale. No wind or hail that I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 IND update MOST RECENT SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT ARRIVAL OF THE QLCS/SQUALL LINE INTO THE WABASH VALLEY WILL BE AROUND 05Z...AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. THE LINE WILL THEN TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 09-10Z. DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...THE DYNAMICS AND FORCING ALOFT MORE THAN COMPENSATE AND THE ABUNDANCE OF BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FURTHER SUPPORT A MAINTAINED INTENSITY TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ALL NIGHT. BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL IMPEDE WINDS ALOFT FROM BEING PULLED TO THE SURFACE. CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY SHOW THE INVERSION REMAINS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE INVERSION BREAKS DOWN WILL BE BIG IN DETERMINING JUST HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE. PRESENCE OF THE DEEP SHEAR AND INTENSE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES SUPPORTS A CONTINUED MENTION OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 SVR warning for IL storm is for 70+mph winds, moving at 70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Insane amount of lightning down in southern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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