Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 6:36 PM, cyclone77 said: The extreme nature of the LLJ is very impressive. Check out this ridiculous return in deep moisture in 18hrs... 12z this morning.. And 06z tonight, just 18hrs later! THat is about as quick as you'll ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Just think, you live in Paducah or Evansville and you wake up this morning with temps in the 30's. In the pre-model days, you'd have no idea about what may happen tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 last night i thought about heading down to E. Arkansas...but decided not to for several reasons...one of the big reasons being most(if not all) of the action will be after dark, and i didn't feel like chasing a fast moving QLCS across KY/TN/MS at night. now i'm thinking about possibly heading down into IN or farther south in IL for some QLCS action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 6:51 PM, Chicago Storm said: last night i thought about heading down to E. Arkansas...but decided not to for several reasons...one of the big reasons being most(if not all) of the action will be after dark, and i didn't feel like chasing a fast moving QLCS across KY/TN/MS at night. now i'm thinking about possibly heading down into IN or farther south in IL for some QLCS action... I'd say save your money for better days for real setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 6:57 PM, Thundersnow12 said: I'd say save your money for better days for real setups. OTOH, I think I see his rationale...it's January and you might as well take a chance. Very difficult to chase this type of system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Anyone who bags a backlit/nighttime tornado from this QLCS setup gets mad props from me lol. It's definitely possible, but too much of a risk for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 With this occuring with temps in the uppers 30s to mid 40s in my location does that mean pretty much all thundestorms will have hail in them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:09 PM, Nic said: With this occuring with temps in the uppers 30s to mid 40s in my location does that mean pretty much all thundestorms will have hail in them? Hail is more reliant on cold mid-level temps and high PWAT values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:09 PM, Nic said: With this occuring with temps in the uppers 30s to mid 40s in my location does that mean pretty much all thundestorms will have hail in them? Freezing levels are on the low side but even if the inversion doesn't mix out, the hail will be falling through some fairly warm temps just above the surface. This setup could be favorable for small hail at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not really related to the severe thread here, but some very intense surface winds over west Texas the last few hours. Amarillo had sustained 51mph gusting to 63mph at noon. Lots of blowing dust showing up on visible down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:13 PM, Hoosier said: Freezing levels are on the low side but even if the inversion doesn't mix out, the hail will be falling through some fairly warm temps just above the surface. This setup could be favorable for small hail at least. Should be fairly interesting to see what happens, rare to see thunderstorms with cool surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:17 PM, Nic said: rare to see thunderstorms with cool surface temps. not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:17 PM, Nic said: Should be fairly interesting to see what happens, rare to see thunderstorms with cool surface temps. The last couple ice storms we've had here have featured T-storms. It's weird being under a severe T-storm warning and it's only like 28 degrees outside, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 6:57 PM, Thundersnow12 said: I'd say save your money for better days for real setups. On 1/22/2012 at 7:02 PM, Hoosier said: OTOH, I think I see his rationale...it's January and you might as well take a chance. Very difficult to chase this type of system though. that is true. it's just a thought at this point though. there are several negatives and positives. we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:26 PM, Chicago Storm said: that is true. it's just a thought at this point though. there are several negatives and positives. we'll see... Wouldn't have to drive too far to possibly get impacted by a squall line with some very strong wind potential. Usually not what we chase for, but it would be a nice tidbit in January. Especially a few days after a nice snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Paducah currently 48/46...Memphis 61/56 WAA is heading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 mid/upper level jet streak continues to push eastward looking at the PRCO profiler with 60 dews now up to southern AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Off the good ol' WGN RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:54 PM, cyclone77 said: Off the good ol' WGN RPM. I'm going to start calling you Mr. RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:37 PM, Thundersnow12 said: That looks eerily similar to what the HRRR showed prior to the April 16th outbreak in the Carolinas last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 7:54 PM, cyclone77 said: Off the good ol' WGN RPM. Wow. That's intense. If there's a thunderstorm here tonight, that'll be a first with snow cover that I've experienced. -Thunder during a snowstorm is a different thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 8:07 PM, Geos said: Wow. That's intense. If there's a thunderstorm here tonight, that'll be a first with snow cover that I've experienced. -Thunder during a snowstorm is a different thing though. Damn even gives MKE some T-Storm Love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 20z outlook is out, basically no change in thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Where is the main discussion for this event going to be? Seems like the SE thread has more weenies then real discussion. Only 3 total pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 strong heating now taking place in southern AR with temps rising 10-12 degrees in the last 2 hours as the front lifts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 8:12 PM, JoMo said: 20z outlook is out, basically no change in thinking. Low CAPE, strong shear, and good forcing add up to an evening of concern for many in the mid south particularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 8:14 PM, SmokeEater said: Where is the main discussion for this event going to be? Seems like the SE thread has more weenies then real discussion. Only 3 total pages. looks like we're doing two threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 8:14 PM, SmokeEater said: Where is the main discussion for this event going to be? Seems like the SE thread has more weenies then real discussion. Only 3 total pages. Keep it here SmokeEater as storms will begin in the Midwest area. And I value your radar postings when things get active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 On 1/22/2012 at 8:14 PM, SmokeEater said: Where is the main discussion for this event going to be? Seems like the SE thread has more weenies then real discussion. Only 3 total pages. That's not exactly a good assumption to make. Areas south of the TN/KY and AR/MO border should be discussed in the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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