Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like a pretty decent storm on tap although warm for most. Rain changing to snow farther north looks like a possibility. The severe threat looks a bit interesting. Although we are seeing a strong frontal passage today, this front doesn't really penetrate very far south to scour the Gulf so decent moisture will be lurking near the Gulf coast. The question is how much of this gets drawn northward. The synoptic pattern is pretty favorable for a severe weather event and in light of what happened a couple days ago (with dewpoints only in the mid 50's), I'd keep an eye on this especially in the Ohio Valley. This can be a general storm thread for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS has a 500 mb jet streak of 110 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks good for Wishforsnow in the Keweenaw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 120 kt+ Jet Streak plus a 75 kt LLJ on the GFS in the Ohio River Valley...absolutely crazy if that would pan out. Looks more like a late March-April type storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 South trended has continued with the last 3 runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro also went south it looks like with an impressive narrow but heavy snow band from eastern IA up into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This Tuesday (Jan. 24) will mark the 45th anniversary of the 1/24/1967 Midwest tornado outbreak (including tornadoes in the St. Louis area) which would then be followed within 2 days by the onset of the Blizzard of '67 (especially in Chicago). Jan. 24, 1967 was also on a Tuesday--very interesting considering the storm threat for early next week in parts of the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ECMWF H7-H3 LAYER ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE EML WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN STRONG LOW CENTERED WAA. H85 THETA-E APPROACHES 325K BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SW INDICES NEGATIVE...INDICATING A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE THUNDER AT THIS POINT. ALBEIT SMALL...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN INDICATED H5 JETLET IN EXCESS OF 90 KNOTS...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE QLCS JET DRIVEN CELLS. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN ATTM IS FOR INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN FULL SNOWPACK MELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. Interesting tidbit from IWX Thurs. afternoon AFD regarding this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 ECMWF H7-H3 LAYER ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE EML WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN STRONG LOW CENTERED WAA. H85 THETA-E APPROACHES 325K BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SW INDICES NEGATIVE...INDICATING A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE THUNDER AT THIS POINT. ALBEIT SMALL...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN INDICATED H5 JETLET IN EXCESS OF 90 KNOTS...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE QLCS JET DRIVEN CELLS. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN ATTM IS FOR INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN FULL SNOWPACK MELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. Interesting tidbit from IWX Thurs. afternoon AFD regarding this system. Would be cool to get the rare severe storm with snow on the ground. Snow is going to be melting fast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Would be cool to get the rare severe storm with snow on the ground. Snow is going to be melting fast though. This fluff won't last long. Interesting looking system. Haven't looked at it yet in detail...too many to track. Which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 This fluff won't last long. Interesting looking system. Haven't looked at it yet in detail...too many to track. Which is a good thing. Saturday might be key. If we don't melt much then it might not all be able to melt by Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Saturday might be key. If we don't melt much then it might not all be able to melt by Sunday evening. Suppose so. This stuff should settle fast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Not like they're bullish but I was a bit surprised to even see IWX mention severe in their AFD since we're still a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DVN throws a bone. . . AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 546 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012 SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE RELATIVE NEW AND DEEPER SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE...THE SUNDAY SYSTEM MAY END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH. DPROG/DT TRENDS FROM MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AND THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW BEING FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM IS FURTHER SOUTH THEN THE PTYPE WOULD FAVOR BEING SNOW MORE THAN A RA/SN MIX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro continues to be on the slower side. Brings 55 degree dewpoints to about I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 23/0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 With the heavy snows of the current system appearing to trend further south than previously anticipated, would this drag the 23-24th storm further south as well? I mean it seems quite warm regardless, just hoping for all snow to develop a "snowpack" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 With the heavy snows of the current system appearing to trend further south than previously anticipated, would this drag the 23-24th storm further south as well? I mean it seems quite warm regardless, just hoping for all snow to develop a "snowpack" It might a little bit but doubtful it would be enough to change the overall outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It might a little bit but doubtful it would be enough to change the overall outcome. Agreed. It sure didn't with this past Monday/Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z Euro is a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 IWX continues to talk about elevated t storms and the slight possibility of QLCS svr in their Friday afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z GFS and my latest run looking good for a round of severe weather south of I-70. 55F Td's into southern Indiana... 50F almost to Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks real bad for keeping our snowpack.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 IWX thinks it could go west. CONTINUED MODEL SUPPORT FOR A STRONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY UPPER JET STREAK AND NEGATIVE UPPER TROUGH TILT SUGGESTS A WEST BIAS TO THE SFC LOW TRACK WITH SLOWER SYSTEM ARRIVAL AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE GRIDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z GFS is rain changing to snow here. Carefully watching this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 IWX thinks it could go west. CONTINUED MODEL SUPPORT FOR A STRONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY UPPER JET STREAK AND NEGATIVE UPPER TROUGH TILT SUGGESTS A WEST BIAS TO THE SFC LOW TRACK WITH SLOWER SYSTEM ARRIVAL AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE GRIDS. IWX always thinks it's going west. For excitement purposes though, let's hope it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 IWX always thinks it's going west. For excitement purposes though, let's hope it does. lol...kinda seems that way but this type of setup with the trough going negative could favor that. Wildcard is snowcover but it's a relatively thin band and given the orientation and a system of this caliber I'm not sure it will be able to play a significant role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Haven't really even looked into this system yet. Just by looking at a few of the 12z runs this looks pretty interesting. Looks like a multi-phase precip type event for a large area. GEM really jacks this thing up by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 lol...kinda seems that way but this type of setup with the trough going negative could favor that. Wildcard is snowcover but it's a relatively thin band and given the orientation and a system of this caliber I'm not sure it will be able to play a significant role. No doubt. Depending on strength, yeah I agree...snow cover will have little effect. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Severe weather possible and some nutty high winds to acompany after whatever squall pushes on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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