phlwx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I disagree with you. I am certainly no JB defender but what he said was the last 4 runs of the Euro. By looking at them, he is right. Now you can split hairs and say last nights run was not as sharp with the trough as yesterdays 12z run but this mornings run is most certainly showing a much deeper trough then 4 runs ago. Having looked at most of the Euro runs the past days there has been some sort of signal for this late week trough in some form since it first popped on day 10. The 12z was arguably the most strong/sharp overall but it's not like there has been a clear trend towards a deeper trough...it's flipped around in intensity from run to run. Using a map from two days ago and another from last night and saying the trend is X when data is clearly showing there is waffling in each solution is a bit disingenuous. If anything this winter...and I made this point yesterday...the Euro has honked big cold in the Day 8-10 range on a few occasions this winter and we end up with a -4 to -8 at 850 instead of -16 to -20 that it advertises several days prior...plus the cold is much more fleeting in duration compared to reality. It's not to say that we won't have a rather cold day late next week...but JB saying that the last four have shown a clear trend is a bit dishonest considering it's nowhere near as cold in the OV as the model was showing 12...or even 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 you gotta love the differences between the 0z and 12z runs of the euro. 12z runs have uber -naos, while 0z runs have +naos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The Beatles February continues per JB see latest post below "the shorter term, this week, a wave of low pressure will come out of the gulf of Mexico with a swath of snow from the Texas Panhandle to the central plains Tuesday night then into the midwest Wednesday and Northeast Thursday . A major storm crashes into the west coast Tuesday then drops to near the Baja and this is a huge deal as I describe on the video. Should it stay west of Baja the polar vortex and severe cold will drop into the lakes midwest and northeast early next week. If it come out quickly , into the gulf then same kind of thing will still happen, but a major storm cold precede it out of the gulf. As it is the in between solution may mean less extreme this weekend and early next week, but that energy will be heard from and probably mean a major winter event by Valentines day in the east. . The overall pattern is going to get stormy and colder for much of the nation over the coming weeks as there is major blocking locking in, cross polar flow delivering arctic air, and an active storm track for a time into the west with wetter weather in California and the seeds for storms that can deliver snow to much of the nation north of I-40 as the month wears. On the table in a pattern like this is the threat of a shot of severe cold, enough so that Chicago could have a day below 0 and a night that NYC hits 0. The two years in snowed in Rome last 1985 and 1986, both had arctic outbreaks into the US where temps fell to near 15 below in the southern appalachians with severe arctic attacks. The stratwarm and the turn to brutal cold in Europe are keys to major global cold outbreaks. and the US is waiting in line. whether it goes to that extreme or not, is still not perfectly clear but what is clear is that the road to winters end will be bumpier than what has gotten us here to this date" " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Didn't JB say that there'd be 1-3" of snow in central NJ just yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Didn't JB say that there'd be 1-3" of snow in central NJ just yesterday? His post a couple days ago said Colts Neck NJ would be on the northern fringe of 3-6" snows. No mention of that today of course. I'll probably see drizzle if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Didn't JB say that there'd be 1-3" of snow in central NJ just yesterday? 3-6. What I got out of JB's paragraph was: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Not even a mention of it.....it just vanished His post a couple days ago said Colts Neck NJ would be on the northern fringe of 3-6" snows. No mention of that today of course. I'll probably see drizzle if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Didn't JB say that there'd be 1-3" of snow in central NJ just yesterday? Credibility cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 you gotta love the differences between the 0z and 12z runs of the euro. 12z runs have uber -naos, while 0z runs have +naos. The 12Z ensemble means both days did not carry the same nao configuration. Still trying to rectify what's going on in the tropical pacific between the gfs and ecmwf, neither one of them looks right for different reasons, maybe why the longer term runs are more volatile than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 D6-10 still rather uncertain thanks to the IO OLR uncertainty. Stat guidance looks closer to the GEFS than the Euro, but a blend probably makes the most sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 D6-10 still rather uncertain thanks to the IO OLR uncertainty. Stat guidance looks closer to the GEFS than the Euro, but a blend probably makes the most sense. This winter is like a line up of train wrecks. Quite the difference from the last two block-buster winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 This winter is like a line up of train wrecks. Quite the difference from the last two block-buster winters! MGorse Posted 15 December 2011 - 07:46 PMMy poor brand spanking new snowblower is getting blamed. All will be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 That's Mike's snow blower in his avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Close but no cigars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 That's Mike's snow blower in his avatar. It is all shined up and waiting and waiting and waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z euro bringing down the pv again across the northeast early next week...with lows in the single digits and probably below zero in the pocs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 For PHL in oF, Weeks 1-4: +6, +9, +3, +5 New ones are out. Big changes. In order: -1, +6, +1, +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 New ones are out. Big changes. In order: -1, +6, +1, +2 How is the PNA and NAO looking on the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 How is the PNA and NAO looking on the weeklies? After this week, it's +EPO/-PNA/+NAO to differing degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 After this week, it's +EPO/-PNA/+NAO to differing degrees Thanks Adam. Those aren't good at all. What a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 +1 and + 2 isn't rhat bad(though the normals are higher later in the month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 +1 and + 2 isn't rhat bad(though the normals are higher later in the month). No not at all. It was certainly a flip from the uber torch on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 No not at all. It was certainly a flip from the uber torch on Thursday. Am i crazy or have the Monday weeklies been colder than the Thursday weeklies?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Am i crazy or have the Monday weeklies been colder than the Thursday weeklies?. Scooter and I were talking about that offline. That's definitely been the trend for the last several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Scooter and I were talking about that offline. That's definitely been the trend for the last several weeks. That's what i thought, if the Thursday weeklies shows it colder than maybe i will be optimistic for a half decent storm before the winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 New ones are out. Big changes. In order: -1, +6, +1, +2 Those numbers look better (in more ways than one), still looks like an awfully big spring back for week 2, if there has to be a +6 in the future, I'd choose door number 3. Thank-you for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Pretty much everything staying on track for cooler temps this weekend into early next week, then a warm up again the back half of next week. The 8-15 period isn't textbook by any stretch, but will probably be the best LW pattern we see all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Pretty much everything staying on track for cooler temps this weekend into early next week, then a warm up again the back half of next week. The 8-15 period isn't textbook by any stretch, but will probably be the best LW pattern we see all winter. Kind of an interesting in thew d7-9 timeframe, but then a warm up near and after V-Day? Also, still some sizeable differences in the 11-15 day between all models. EC still the warmest, with a crappy Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Kind of an interesting in thew d7-9 timeframe, but then a warm up near and after V-Day? Also, still some sizeable differences in the 11-15 day between all models. EC still the warmest, with a crappy Pacific. Oops, I mean Feb 8-15, not day 8-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Oops, I mean Feb 8-15, not day 8-15. Sure you did with that +6 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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