Rainshadow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I wouldn't say that. I mean, Week 1 is Feb 6-12, which is going to be bookended by torches, but there should still be a period around the 8-10th where we could luckbox something. It's not terribly likely, but not impossible, either. That's quite a flip from Monday. I'm guessing its MJO is taking a big dive into the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 That's quite a flip from Monday. I'm guessing its MJO is taking a big dive into the COD. Yeah, I'd almost guarantee with that pattern, the hovmoller will show major -OLR anomalies over the Maritime Continent by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah, I'd almost guarantee with that pattern, the hovmoller will show major -OLR anomalies over the Maritime Continent by next weekend. I don't know, it looks like we got the ying and yang solutions three days apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I don't know, it looks like we got the ying and yang solutions three days apart. I'm trying not to be warm biased, but I have a real hard time believing the GEFS solution since the pattern seems to be driven entirely by the tropics right now and the GEFS convective/radiation scheme is patently awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm trying not to be warm biased, but I have a real hard time believing the GEFS solution since the pattern seems to be driven entirely by the tropics right now and the GEFS convective/radiation scheme is patently awful. I agree with you, there have been some mjo projection rocks this winter pulled by the gfs, but the discontinuity in the short term the way the Euro just drops the convection like a hot potato doesn't seem right either. Thankfully I don't get paid for that part of the forecast or else I might have to give them money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I agree with you, there have been some mjo projection rocks this winter pulled by the gfs, but the discontinuity in the short term the way the Euro just drops the convection like a hot potato doesn't seem right either. Thankfully I don't get paid for that part of the forecast or else I might have to give them money. Yeah, it's not either/or. Just because I think the GEFS is totally wrong in the mid range doesn't mean I believe the Euro solution is absolutely correct, either. Of concern to cold lovers, though, is that the Canadian ensemble is much more similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah, it's not either/or. Just because I think the GEFS is totally wrong in the mid range doesn't mean I believe the Euro solution is absolutely correct, either. Of concern to cold lovers, though, is that the Canadian ensemble is much more similar to the Euro. Oh I agree and I hope no one thinks I think either is absolutely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Pictorially I wanted to show what Adam and I were posting about. There was an excellent discussion about this in the main section. i'm under the assumption (somebody correct me if I'm wrong) that this is the tropical olr observation/outlook for both the northern and southern hemisphere. Phil (main section) had a satellite photo that alot of the convection is south of the equator near the dateline. Could the discontinuity in the Euro, be because of a jump north and even if the GFS is right about a mondo phase 7 mjo, if most of the convection is south of the equator, would its effect in our hemisphere be more muted? Its GFS first, then the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Tony, I don't think those maps are explicitly explained anywhere, but my assumption is that they are OLR anomalies from 7.5S-7.5N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Tony, I don't think those maps are explicitly explained anywhere, but my assumption is that they are OLR anomalies from 7.5S-7.5N Adam, I was thinking that it might have been 5N to 5S. I was hoping you'd reply. Maybe Wes knows. Regardless, the discontinuity on those progs could have as much to do with geography as it does with the convection itself. That was the extremely long winded point about how off the Euro outlook "looks" with the near dateline convection just after initialization time. Can I tell you what I expect from the next four weeks in mid March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Can I tell you what I expect from the next four weeks in mid March? Oh, please do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Final torch stats from Philly (1/23-2/2): Average Temperature anomaly - +12.16oF, Absolute Max Temp - 67oF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Oh, please do! bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Final torch stats from Philly (1/23-2/2): Average Temperature anomaly - +12.16oF, Absolute Max Temp - 67oF well one thing the torch didnt do is dry out my yard! guess that will happen in july at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 we may need to create a feb.10th-12th thread, just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 bump Is it mid-March already? Well the weather sure thinks it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 we may need to create a feb.10th-12th thread, just saying Of course, the GFS op says its rain Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Is it mid-March already? Well the weather sure thinks it is. I iz good at readin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Of course, the GFS op says its rain Just sayin' Well I never said the "S" word, just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 JB Tweet "Euro goes Roidian on winter with system later next week - stronger and vortex collapsing into the lakes...have been telling clients given case study of other strat warm and euro cold - hard to believe pattern does not get nasty in states" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 ^ it's about the 5th time that damn model has shown "nasty" or "vile" cold in the East in the Day 8-10 range this winter...and by the time reality hits we're running a -4 at 850 instead of -24. I'll believe it when it's "vile" inside 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The sun angle will be coming into play soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The sun angle will be coming into play soon. Dam, you take away JB's excuse for the euro model being not "so vile" I guess he is hoping the European cold snap translates into the same thing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 qoute from HM in medium range weather discussion..........fwiw You can analyze every cluster of thunderstorms all you like in the Tropics and talk about what happened in January, but the simple truth is that the regime has shifted. Now I am not suggesting an epic cold pattern is coming or that blizzard after blizzard is on the way, but this is NOT the same setup. This is the furthest east the forcing has gotten all winter, the NH AAM anomalies have reversed and the solar parameters continue to decline toward a probable min later this month during the next IMF dip. Our issue is not going to be the PV retreating to Alaska as much as it will be the tight / fast nature to the vortex (since the center of the stratospheric vortex will be essentially over the PV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 ^ it's about the 5th time that damn model has shown "nasty" or "vile" cold in the East in the Day 8-10 range this winter...and by the time reality hits we're running a -4 at 850 instead of -24. I'll believe it when it's "vile" inside 3 days. Well natural gas futures closed down 2.2% today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Nice strong HP finally setting up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 the 0z gfs, most likely wrong and of comical nature has prob the most outrageous block i have seen this year in the long range. Epic -nao hooks up with a -epo pinches off the pv and forces it south into the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 lol good ol JB... http://twitter.com/B...732451442884608 Unfortunately I can't post the 500 mb difference between 12z Friday and 0z last night but there's a 25 mb INCREASE at 500 mb over the Ohio Valley between 12z and 0z as the trough is flatter to the south. There was some nasty cold in the OV at 12z but those -16 to -20 850's were replaced with -4 to -8. If that's not intellectually dishonest, I don't know what is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 lol good ol JB... http://twitter.com/B...732451442884608 Unfortunately I can't post the 500 mb difference between 12z Friday and 0z last night but there's a 25 mb INCREASE at 500 mb over the Ohio Valley between 12z and 0z as the trough is flatter to the south. There was some nasty cold in the OV at 12z but those -16 to -20 850's were replaced with -4 to -8. If that's not intellectually dishonest, I don't know what is... I disagree with you. I am certainly no JB defender but what he said was the last 4 runs of the Euro. By looking at them, he is right. Now you can split hairs and say last nights run was not as sharp with the trough as yesterdays 12z run but this mornings run is most certainly showing a much deeper trough then 4 runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 the 0z gfs, most likely wrong and of comical nature has prob the most outrageous block i have seen this year in the long range. Epic -nao hooks up with a -epo pinches off the pv and forces it south into the northern plains. It also has PD III. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.