famartin Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It would be pretty ironic to finally get a decent snow after March 20 to complement the October snow and have the actual winter season nearly snowless. February is looking more and more like a continuation of the pattern that brung us. I'm banking on a snowstorm in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I'm banking on a snowstorm in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The week long period of favoribility is trending much shorter in both the model guidance and the MJO forecasts. The Euro ENS for D11-15 is downright ugly. Even though its not that good with it, that would still be a heck of a MJO bust by the GFS. I'm guessing that Thu's weeklies are going to say that the mon weeklies were a whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Even though its not that good with it, that would still be a heck of a MJO bust by the GFS. I'm guessing that Thu's weeklies are going to say that the mon weeklies were a whoops. Me too. If you want a good discussion on the MJO and how it affects the models, start on pg 19 of the SNE first half of February thread. Really good back and forth in there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Me too. If you want a good discussion on the MJO and how it affects the models, start on pg 19 of the SNE first half of February thread. Really good back and forth in there today. Thanks Adam (great back/forth), plus thanks for those olr links also. I can't find half the stuff I want to on the CPC site. I must say CoastalWx must have been reading my mind or I was reading his mind, it just doesn't seem logical for a strong PNA ridge to get obliterated that quickly even if the forcing is gone. Regardless in nina winters the euro often is too quick with the -nao and even the gfs errors with the nao have been too negative pretty much the whole winter. So we're back to square one even with a +PNA/-EPO with a +NAO (or not a -NAO west) these cold shots are not sustainable and once the +PNA/-EPO relaxes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I was reading Brett Anderson's blog the other day. Basically his thinking is even if we do see a pattern change in Feb, the cold air will be on the other side of the globe. The best we could hope for is near-normal temps for a week or so. I do think we'll see a storm in late March/early April. It just seems like one of those years where the majority of our snow will fall outside of winter, similar to 1989-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I was reading Brett Anderson's blog the other day. Basically his thinking is even if we do see a pattern change in Feb, the cold air will be on the other side of the globe. The best we could hope for is near-normal temps for a week or so. I do think we'll see a storm in late March/early April. It just seems like one of those years where the majority of our snow will fall outside of winter, similar to 1989-90. It wouldn't surprise me if we had a big torch event in either March or April either in advance or in the wake of any fluke event...'90 (March) and '02 (April) both had super torch events. As long as we don't get that backdoor front from hell like we did in '03 (going from 87 at 4 PM on the 16th to 47 at 4 AM of the 17th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 just checked out the 0z gfs run, why do i even bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 just checked out the 0z gfs run, why do i even bother? Could be worse. Check out the 0z Euro ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Could be worse. Check out the 0z Euro ensemble run. No way, must avoid but tempting. You know things are bad when I keep looking at web cams from the alps, white they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Could be worse. Check out the 0z Euro ensemble run. I'll wait for the 15 second blurb on the national news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'll wait for the 15 second blurb on the national news. The rodent, Phil, saw his shadow this morning therefore 6 more weeks of winter. I guess that means 6 more weeks of spring-like weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The rodent, Phil, saw his shadow this morning therefore 6 more weeks of winter. I guess that means 6 more weeks of spring-like weather. So you're saying the groundhog isn't buying into the idea of a pattern change either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So you're saying the groundhog isn't buying into the idea of a pattern change either? The 'wood stump' they pull him out of is a decent size, so he probably has a system in there to look over the ensembles and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The rodent, Phil, saw his shadow this morning therefore 6 more weeks of winter. I guess that means 6 more weeks of spring-like weather. My winter here was in Oct. about 14" of snow then. Since then only 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 What I'm afraid of is that when we get to spring we'll be stuck with temps in the 40's and 50's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The NAEFS had backed off for awhile to normal or slightly below. They are now back to mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The NAEFS had backed off for awhile to normal or slightly below. They are now back to mild. I'm sure like all these other models it will change again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Correct me if I am wrong, but the "pattern" has changed significantly twice since December. The first change displaced artic cold toward the Pac NW and the second has given Europe their arctic outbreak and snow, yes? Therefore, we are 0 for 2. I still hold out weenie hope that we get our "wave" and snow chances toward mid-late Feb or even March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It wouldn't surprise me if we had a big torch event in either March or April either in advance or in the wake of any fluke event...'90 (March) and '02 (April) both had super torch events. As long as we don't get that backdoor front from hell like we did in '03 (going from 87 at 4 PM on the 16th to 47 at 4 AM of the 17th). March 1990 was a wild month. We had that string of 80-degree days leading up to St. Patty’s Day. Then we had snow a week later; perhaps the biggest snowfall since the 1989 Thanksgiving eve storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Any word on the new weeklies Adam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Any word on the new weeklies Adam? Haven't seen them, heard they were a torch. I'll know in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Haven't seen them, heard they were a torch. I'll know in about an hour. For PHL in oF, Weeks 1-4: +6, +9, +3, +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 For PHL in oF, Weeks 1-4: +6, +9, +3, +5 Are you sure that is correct, because i heard weeks 3 and 4 were much warmer than weeks 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 For PHL in oF, Weeks 1-4: +6, +9, +3, +5 No picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Are you sure that is correct, because i heard weeks 3 and 4 were much warmer than weeks 1 and 2. Week 2 is far and away the warmest. It's probably >+9, but the scale only goes to +9. Weeks 1 and 4 look similar to each other in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Week 2 is far and away the warmest. It's probably >+9, but the scale only goes to +9. Weeks 1 and 4 looks similar in the Northeast. Ok thanks Adam, so if they are right the much talked about storm for next weekend does not have much of a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ok thanks Adam, so if they are right the much talked about storm for next weekend does not have much of a chance. I wouldn't say that. I mean, Week 1 is Feb 6-12, which is going to be bookended by torches, but there should still be a period around the 8-10th where we could luckbox something. It's not terribly likely, but not impossible, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 if we can pull another snow event during that cooler week all the snow weenies will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 one of the most boring runs I've seen in a while...no real torch/cold signal on either gfs or ecm and no real good storm chances...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz +PNA/+NAO(transient -NAO?)/SE Canada troughing = best pattern for cold this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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