Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 March 3rd is a Saturday. I know because I'm supposed to be driving a Ferrari around NJ motorsports park on Friday 3/2, so there will definitely be a storm around that time... We'll outlook it now. Thanks for the catch, forgot about Feb 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Look on the bright side, at least your not relying on the models past 120hrs :-)!!!! Works for me. In 2009-2010 one of our colleagues was on mids for all of the three major winter storms. Second thing we did after seeing a storm on the models, was check what shift he was working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Works for me. In 2009-2010 one of our colleagues was on mids for all of the three major winter storms. Second thing we did after seeing a storm on the models, was check what shift he was working. In 2009-10 and 2010-11, I was working mids during both of the biggest storms in Ewing (Feb 10 2010 and Jan 26 2011). My next set of mids will be February 14-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 In 2009-10 and 2010-11, I was working mids during both of the biggest storms in Ewing (Feb 10 2010 and Jan 26 2011). My next set of mids will be February 14-20 isnt that presidents day weekend to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 isnt that presidents day weekend to? Yup, so who's going to work Ray's mids in Elko? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 isnt that presidents day weekend to? PD III? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Latest on the weeklies? Do we get any blocking? Torch? -NAO or - AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Latest on the weeklies? Do we get any blocking? Torch? -NAO or - AO? Much above through Feb 5, then some transient +PNA/-NAO pattern for Week 3 (starting Feb 6), then a weak signal for Week 4 with maybe some slight ridging into the Davis Straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Much above through Feb 5, then some transient +PNA/-NAO pattern for Week 3 (starting Feb 6), then a weak signal for Week 4 with maybe some slight ridging into the Davis Straits. After the failure of the Ensembles and the weeklies in regards to the torch, i am not as impressed with what they call for. It's been a pretty cold period the last week, did they ever call for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 After the failure of the Ensembles and the weeklies in regards to the torch, i am not as impressed with what they call for. It's been a pretty cold period the last week, did they ever call for that? The departures for me the last 10 days are -6, -8, -8, -2, +15, -4, -6, -10, -4, -1....that's below normal. Not sure for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Allentown's dead on average for 1/14-1/23. Philly is all of -0.1 degrees in the last ten days. Today puts ABE and Philly both above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Sunday's system might throw some backlash snow showers into the region as it intensifies. This looks like a winner for the Cape and the Maine coasts as it develops once it hits the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Allentown's dead on average for 1/14-1/23. Philly is all of -0.1 degrees in the last ten days. Today puts ABE and Philly both above average. Normals are really one of those things you can't estimate for a personal weather station. Small siting and terrain differences make it essentially impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I'm sure that +15 really kills the mean average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Just in terms of Philly it's 3 above, 7 below in the last 10 (through yesterday). Today will make it 4 up, 6 down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 If we look at the last 10 or 15 years for january temps this month is not that much above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 After the failure of the Ensembles and the weeklies in regards to the torch, i am not as impressed with what they call for. It's been a pretty cold period the last week, did they ever call for that? IDK about the Euro weeklies, but I thought there was a zero departure week in there (might have been as week 1 or week 2). The NAEFS did have an average week in there outlooked around the correct time (and more than one run). I'm assuming the Euro week is Mon-Sun and while there will not be any 70s and whatever the value of the torch it was suppose to be, it is going to average much warmer than normal (speaking for around our area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 IDK about the Euro weeklies, but I thought there was a zero departure week in there (might have been as week 1 or week 2). The NAEFS did have an average week in there outlooked around the correct time (and more than one run). I'm assuming the Euro week is Mon-Sun and while there will not be any 70s and whatever the value of the torch it was suppose to be, it is going to average much warmer than normal (speaking for around our area). The Euro weeklies have been running slightly warm. Even for last week, it was progged in around +2. Yeah, we're definitely going to be well above normal on average here. I jumped the gun on the magnitude because I had warm forecasted based on MJO/stratosphere stuff, then saw the Euro weeklies with the widespread >+9 anoms and figured it would come in excessively warm. I was wrong there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS is a little interesting for the weekend. Models are really struggling right now in regards to this potential rain/slop/snow maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS is a little interesting for the weekend. Models are really struggling right now in regards to this potential rain/slop/snow maker. Big differences between the 12Z yesterday versus 0Z last night, and 0Z last night versus 12Z today. Struggling is an understatement. They're clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Big differences between the 12Z yesterday versus 0Z last night, and 0Z last night versus 12Z today. Struggling is an understatement. They're clueless. Agreed but i would sooner have you say that, then me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Big differences between the 12Z yesterday versus 0Z last night, and 0Z last night versus 12Z today. Struggling is an understatement. They're clueless. EC has been more consistent, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 EC has been more consistent, no? Today's EC, yes. Between 12Z yesterday and 0Z last night the EC had a fairly substantial shift, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I will say I'm not too enthusiastic about the weekend potential 2nd storm.. Too much going against it for it wanting to be an amplified system. Overall, the pacific is entirely way to progressive. There's hints of ridging out west, but there's a shortwave just offshore that's kicking the ridge east and stoping it from really amplifying. The 250mb jet is impressive on the east coast, but there's not enough time for amplification due to a lack of blocking with holding power. We'll see what happens, but I'm not favoring this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Bootleg sleet or snizzle or even light snow possible late tonight north and west of the city...EC's pushing this a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Looks mostly warm compared to normal here through about the 4th, except for Sunday-Monday. Still targeting Feb 5-15 or so for good winter weather chances based on the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Looks mostly warm compared to normal here through about the 4th, except for Sunday-Monday. Still targeting Feb 5-15 or so for good winter weather chances based on the MJO. At least that is trying to make it towards the date line. After that, we may go backwards again, but that's getting far out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 At least that is trying to make it towards the date line. After that, we may go backwards again, but that's getting far out there. Oh yeah. Just based on the statistical progs, Feb 15-29 looks a lot like Jan 15-29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Oh yeah. Just based on the statistical progs, Feb 15-29 looks a lot like Jan 15-29. Cool that means maybe another 3-4" snow event to double my totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Cool that means maybe another 3-4" snow event to double of totals! Don't you mean triple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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