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Medium Range Thread


tombo82685

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Works for me. :whistle: In 2009-2010 one of our colleagues was on mids for all of the three major winter storms. Second thing we did after seeing a storm on the models, was check what shift he was working. ;)

In 2009-10 and 2010-11, I was working mids during both of the biggest storms in Ewing (Feb 10 2010 and Jan 26 2011). My next set of mids will be February 14-20 :whistle:

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Much above through Feb 5, then some transient +PNA/-NAO pattern for Week 3 (starting Feb 6), then a weak signal for Week 4 with maybe some slight ridging into the Davis Straits.

After the failure of the Ensembles and the weeklies in regards to the torch, i am not as impressed with what they call for. It's been a pretty cold period the last week, did they ever call for that? :unsure:

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After the failure of the Ensembles and the weeklies in regards to the torch, i am not as impressed with what they call for. It's been a pretty cold period the last week, did they ever call for that? :unsure:

The departures for me the last 10 days are -6, -8, -8, -2, +15, -4, -6, -10, -4, -1....that's below normal. Not sure for others.

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Allentown's dead on average for 1/14-1/23.

Philly is all of -0.1 degrees in the last ten days.

Today puts ABE and Philly both above average.

Normals are really one of those things you can't estimate for a personal weather station. Small siting and terrain differences make it essentially impossible.

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After the failure of the Ensembles and the weeklies in regards to the torch, i am not as impressed with what they call for. It's been a pretty cold period the last week, did they ever call for that? :unsure:

IDK about the Euro weeklies, but I thought there was a zero departure week in there (might have been as week 1 or week 2). The NAEFS did have an average week in there outlooked around the correct time (and more than one run).

post-623-0-80531000-1327409361.png

I'm assuming the Euro week is Mon-Sun and while there will not be any 70s and whatever the value of the torch it was suppose to be, it is going to average much warmer than normal (speaking for around our area).

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IDK about the Euro weeklies, but I thought there was a zero departure week in there (might have been as week 1 or week 2). The NAEFS did have an average week in there outlooked around the correct time (and more than one run).

I'm assuming the Euro week is Mon-Sun and while there will not be any 70s and whatever the value of the torch it was suppose to be, it is going to average much warmer than normal (speaking for around our area).

The Euro weeklies have been running slightly warm. Even for last week, it was progged in around +2.

Yeah, we're definitely going to be well above normal on average here. I jumped the gun on the magnitude because I had warm forecasted based on MJO/stratosphere stuff, then saw the Euro weeklies with the widespread >+9 anoms and figured it would come in excessively warm. I was wrong there.

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12z GFS is a little interesting for the weekend. Models are really struggling right now in regards to this potential rain/slop/snow maker.

Big differences between the 12Z yesterday versus 0Z last night, and 0Z last night versus 12Z today. Struggling is an understatement. They're clueless.

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I will say I'm not too enthusiastic about the weekend potential 2nd storm..

Too much going against it for it wanting to be an amplified system. Overall, the pacific is entirely way to progressive. There's hints of ridging out west, but there's a shortwave just offshore that's kicking the ridge east and stoping it from really amplifying. The 250mb jet is impressive on the east coast, but there's not enough time for amplification due to a lack of blocking with holding power. We'll see what happens, but I'm not favoring this time period.

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Looks mostly warm compared to normal here through about the 4th, except for Sunday-Monday. Still targeting Feb 5-15 or so for good winter weather chances based on the MJO.

At least that is trying to make it towards the date line. After that, we may go backwards again, but that's getting far out there.

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