phlwx Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Stupid local effects... Re: the actual bet, if the stat forecasts for the MJO are right, I'll have a chance Apr 29-30. If the Euro is right, it'll be busto. Doesn't look like it's happenin at this point. Might be in the 50's on the 29th if the EC is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Doesn't look like it's happenin at this point. Might be in the 50's on the 29th if the EC is right. I don't think it has much of a chance to get to 90, but I think the range of possible high temperatures on Saturday is anywhere between 55 and 85. That's a fun forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Doesn't look like it's happenin at this point. Might be in the 50's on the 29th if the EC is right. What's funny is that the objective analogs are agreeing with the pattern I was sniffing out: Something else is going on with the atmosphere right now that I don't have a clue about (e.g. solar?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Something else is going on with the atmosphere right now that I don't have a clue about (e.g. solar?). The coastal storm was a definite bootleg to conventional wisdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This thread has been a bit quiet since our warmup ended. Any of the mets have thoughts on temps and/or storms in the medium range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This thread has been a bit quiet since our warmup ended. Any of the mets have thoughts on temps and/or storms in the medium range? Looks like a fairly normal May at this point. I'll put out a forecast on Monday. Weak ENSO/MJO signatures leave little in the way of strong signals in the East. If I had to bet on anything, it'd be above normal temps in the Plains and/or Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Lol, now the euro Wants to build in a west based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 maybe near 90 on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 maybe near 90 on Friday? Even with a 50-50 and NAO block. Smh... Certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Even with a 50-50 and NAO block. Smh... Certainly possible. Thunderstorms possible also i take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 Even with a 50-50 and NAO block. Smh... Certainly possible. that doesn't build in til after friday Thunderstorms possible also i take it? euro doesn't have anything for friday, atleast the 0z didnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 that doesn't build in til after friday euro doesn't have anything for friday, atleast the 0z didnt. its there by thursday. Not fully west based. But it's there. NO match for the -PNA out west. I also imagine the different wavelengths hinder the full effect of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 its there by thursday. Not fully west based. But it's there. NO match for the -PNA out west. I also imagine the different wavelengths hinder the full effect of the block. -NAO's in the warm season don't yield cold unless they are anomalously strong for May. Wavelengths FTW (or FTL?). BTW, I'd probably go 86 for a high on Friday afternoon. It's not "near" 90 but it's a lot closer than it has been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I don't think it has much of a chance to get to 90, but I think the range of possible high temperatures on Saturday is anywhere between 55 and 85. That's a fun forecast. And 55 it was. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 32.7 this morning with decent amount of frost. Fell just shy of 8th freezing morning this month. Hopefully last frost/freeze of the season. Covering/uncovering 30+ tomatoes/peppers gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Apr 16-30: +6 May 1-15: +1 I'm not too confident in either of these forecasts. I'm above the Euro ENS for the April 16-30 period, mainly because I think we'll be warmer in the last 5 days of the month than what the Euro has. Early May is a tough forecast. Models are losing the MJO signal and the ENSO signal is weakening as well. Without those two dominant teleconnections, it's tough to make a call. Verification for April 16-30: +2.28 Busted hard on the end of month warmth. The MJO going into the CoD killed me. May 1-15: +1 May 16-31: -2 Sticking with the early month call. This week's warmth should be balanced out by next week's cool shot. Latter half of the month is a crap chute. No ENSO, no MJO. Without the two leading principal components of the global circulation, it's a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Verification for April 16-30: +2.28 Busted hard on the end of month warmth. The MJO going into the CoD killed me. May 1-15: +1 May 16-31: -2 Sticking with the early month call. This week's warmth should be balanced out by next week's cool shot. Latter half of the month is a crap chute. No ENSO, no MJO. Without the two leading principal components of the global circulation, it's a tough call. Adam, You had quite a nice run with these outlooks even if the COD got you sort of (it was still warm) on the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 GFS past day 5 has a weird looking pattern. -PNA but also HP stacked along 60N in Canada/N. Atlantic and cut-off in S Canada. Perfect time for -NAO. Why do I get the feeling this may be a cool summer? Anyways, any thoughts about the mechanism for the recent pattern trends? I think some of the global circulatory changes associated with the QBO/solar activity may have played a role. Some pretty big changes with respect to zonal wind in the high latitudes over the past month, particularly at 70-100mb. W Pac with the most obvious wind/height changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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