Grothar Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Mt.Holly mentioned in their afternoon AFD of a potential significant rain event for Sunday, thoughts? Seeing is believing. Significant rain event would be less that .50 because we have not seen that amount in weeks. Drys up before going over the mts again? If we have rain, at least throw in a few t-storms. We deserve them with these 80 degree temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Just some minor differences between the 0z Euro and GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Fwiw, DT honking at the day 10 euro showing a easy coast system set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Fwiw, DT honking at the day 10 euro showing a easy coast system set up. Crap. Better go change my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Fwiw, DT honking at the day 10 euro showing a easy coast system set up. I'm sure its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I'm sure its right. It's dumb to use the Euro as justification for it, but the ENSO/MJO pattern is going to be conducive for an interior snow next week. I'd keep half an eye on it if I lived in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 It's dumb to use the Euro as justification for it, but the ENSO/MJO pattern is going to be conducive for an interior snow next week. I'd keep half an eye on it if I lived in the Poconos. It's a pretty slow moving system highly dependent on the strength of the ridging over Canada. And while the MJO correlation to an east coast low has been solid (I believe twice since the new years the MJO has been phase 7 and there's been some type of an eastern coastal low?). So no doubt the MJO is doing its job. Just thought I'd mention it. Obviously, take any solution on longer range with a grain of salt. I do believe he was just mentioning the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 snow showers with that p.o.s cut-off near at 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Apr 1-15: +1 I'm going to stick with this, probably. I'll come up with something for the end of the month on Monday, but expect it to be warm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 correct me if I'm wrong but GFS looks chilly for our region with a -NAO plus a fantasy 300hr snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 both gfs and euro trying to amp up some N. Atlantic ridging and with the shortened wavelengths it looks like we'll be dealing with a couple of fronts over the next 7 days at least, with the GFS being backdoory. overall it looks like we'll still be above average temp wise, even if only a few degrees... good call by adam way back for the first half of April highlighting the potential for not only much cooler weather but also the possibility of some below average temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Mar 16-30: +10, up from +6 Apr 1-15: +1 Verification - Mar 16-31: +10.44 Forecasts Apr 1-15: +2 Apr 16-30: +9 Last Friday, I made a bet with my boss that PHL will see 90 between Apr 20-30. We'll see how that goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Verification - Mar 16-31: +10.44 Forecasts Apr 1-15: +2 Apr 16-30: +9 Last Friday, I made a bet with my boss that PHL will see 90 between Apr 20-30. We'll see how that goes... The trees blooming earlier than usual may cost you. Does the winner get to spend a day at the beach with the signs of spring ladies? I see Ray on here, so I'll add does the loser have to fly to Elko to experience a duststorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 The trees blooming earlier than usual may cost you. Because of more evapotranspiration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Verification - Mar 16-31: +10.44 Forecasts Apr 1-15: +2 Apr 16-30: +9 Last Friday, I made a bet with my boss that PHL will see 90 between Apr 20-30. We'll see how that goes... The trees blooming earlier than usual may cost you. I'll take the under as well. 80+ is definitely do-able after 4/15...just not sure we get to 90 in the 2nd half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I see Ray on here, so I'll add does the loser have to fly to Elko to experience a duststorm? Winnemucca or Lovelock are surer bets, closer to the source region for most of the big ones. Here's the vis from earlier on Saturday, the two METAR plots are Lovelock and Winnemucca, fully enshrouded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 i would give up a pinky for a cold front with an inch of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Because of more evapotranspiration? Yup, plus lower albedo for leaves vs bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Yup, plus lower albedo for leaves vs bare ground. Yes and since we had to no snow on the ground to reflect the sun' rays, the ground temps were allowed to increase substantially. Ground temps above 52- 55 degrees permitted earlier budding of the trees, bushes and as of now, even new grass seed. The little bit of rain showers we had in the last five days have allowed moisture to get into the top layer of the soil profile to help with the budding process. Lets hope we can an inch of rain here too to continue the budding process otherwise we will have fruit trees with a lot of buds and blossoms hanging on longer just waiting for a significant freeze. With the ground dying out this week, everything will look nice, but this may change come the end of April. There was absolutely no runoff from these showers IMHO and this did not help the streams. There were more fishermen in the stream in my backyard than were fishing on the bank because the streams are running below base flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Not sure where else to post this, but given the general warmth we have and are experiencing does anyone believe that we could be seeing more tropical cyclonic activity this year making it's presence felt up the eastern seaboard? Since the ocean waters should be running above normal come hurricane season, thus supporting tropical disturbances in the higher latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Not sure where else to post this, but given the general warmth we have and are experiencing does anyone believe that we could be seeing more tropical cyclonic activity this year making it's presence felt up the eastern seaboard? Since the ocean waters should be running above normal come hurricane season, thus supporting tropical disturbances in the higher latitudes. EC landfalls are more about the positioning of the subtropical ridge than the SSTs along the Eastern Seaboard. As far as I know, there is no correlation with Eastern Seaboard SSTs and landfalling tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 EC landfalls are more about the positioning of the subtropical ridge than the SSTs along the Eastern Seaboard. As far as I know, there is no correlation with Eastern Seaboard SSTs and landfalling tropical cyclones. Could SST's influence the position of the ridge? Just throwing that out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Could SST's influence the position of the ridge? Just throwing that out there... Some of the guys I work with try to use SSTAs to determine where the location of the ridge will be. In practice, personally, I don't find it useful at all and I know guys on the board like HM and Vawxman laugh at the method of forecasting. I can go further with my views on that method if you want, but it might be an esoteric discussion. FWIW, our in house proprietary method does have a significant East Coast threat this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Some of the guys I work with try to use SSTAs to determine where the location of the ridge will be. In practice, personally, I don't find it useful at all and I know guys on the board like HM and Vawxman laugh at the method of forecasting. I can go further with my views on that method if you want, but it might be an esoteric discussion. OK, just curious... figured you would have an opinion If Brian thinks its crap, then its probably crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 that second week of April sure looks interesting...Euro at day 10 is which coincides well with its MJO phase 8 projection...GFS/GEFS also looking pretty sold on W US ridge - E US trough past 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 woo hoo 40's and low 50's in mid April for highs...I'm sure everyone is going to love that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 woo hoo 40's and low 50's in mid April for highs...I'm sure everyone is going to love that! Well we had April in March, might as well as have some March in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 i guess we are not pulling one more snow event out of the hat, just a bunny. dec.5th 2012 will rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 EC landfalls are more about the positioning of the subtropical ridge than the SSTs along the Eastern Seaboard. As far as I know, there is no correlation with Eastern Seaboard SSTs and landfalling tropical cyclones. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Verification - Mar 16-31: +10.44 Forecasts Apr 1-15: +2 Apr 16-30: +9 Last Friday, I made a bet with my boss that PHL will see 90 between Apr 20-30. We'll see how that goes... Would April 16 or 17 count if it happened? Funny thing the leaf out has slowed a bit because of the chilly recent weather, but we have been so bone dry that we have easily been doing +16 to +17C over 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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