phlwx Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 the 540 line is back down to Reading by the end of the 12z GFS run today (march 29th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 the 540 line is back down to Reading by the end of the 12z GFS run today (march 29th). Just when it is getting nice. Is this a fruit blossom killer event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 the 540 line is back down to Reading by the end of the 12z GFS run today (march 29th). our april snow is brewing to back end october snow, lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 the 540 line is back down to Reading by the end of the 12z GFS run today (march 29th). Just saw we couldn't get above 53 degrees the last ten days of March last year. This year we might have a low higher than 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Just saw we couldn't get above 53 degrees the last ten days of March last year. This year we might have a low higher than 53. The low at PHL today was 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Ensemble guidance is really showing the wavelengths shortening by the end of the month. If that occurs, the P4-5-6 MJO will no longer teleconnect to a torch and we could end up with a near normal or even below at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Ensemble guidance is really showing the wavelengths shortening by the end of the month. If that occurs, the P4-5-6 MJO will no longer teleconnect to a torch and we could end up with a near normal or even below at the end of the month. Easter bunny might be hard to spot with white on white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Easter bunny might be hard to spot with white on white Eaaaaaaaaasy there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Eaaaaaaaaasy there I hope this clarifies the situation. Trick or treat redux. We were treated with a snow on Halloween, now we will be tricked by a snow on easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 looking at the gfs ensemble temp's, 80f next week for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 I hope this clarifies the situation. Trick or treat redux. We were treated with a snow on Halloween, now we will be tricked by a snow on easter? oof, I sure hope not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 So whats normal temps for end of march early april? 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 So whats normal temps for end of march early april? 60? According to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=phi ABE 56 PHL 59 ILG 58 ACY 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 oof, I sure hope not... Considering I've seen about 100 different flowering trees already flowering this week I hope we stay mild. Winter is so far gone in my mind. Spring's here...enjoy it...live it...love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Considering I've seen about 100 different flowering trees already flowering this week I hope we stay mild. Winter is so far gone in my mind. Spring's here...enjoy it...live it...love it. Signs are not looking good for early April, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Signs are not looking good for early April, imo I presume you mean that Spring is facing an interruption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 I presume you mean that Spring is facing an interruption? Yeah. I think Early April is the best chance for some prolonged below normal since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Below normal early April highs = 40's? Or are you seeing a well below cold signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Below normal early April highs = 40's? Or are you seeing a well below cold signal? Nothing well below. I could see us averaging -5 to -10 for a week or so, though. I'll make an Apr 1-15 call tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yeah. I think Early April is the best chance for some prolonged below normal since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Below normal early April highs = 40's? Or are you seeing a well below cold signal? 5-10 below normal highs would be low-mid 50s. Of course, it could also mean cloudy with a small diurnal range that's in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Nothing well below. I could see us averaging -5 to -10 for a week or so, though. I'll make an Apr 1-15 call tomorrow morning. -10 is enough for snow at night. Can't rule out the bookend storm with some signs of Greenland blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yeah. I think Early April is the best chance for some prolonged below normal since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 -10 is enough for snow at night. Can't rule out the bookend storm with some signs of Greenland blocking. might be an april fools type thing where it snows in a heavier burst late night/early AM but it's snowed/snow showered in April quite a few times -- '06, '07, '03, '04, '11 -- in the last decade. Stuff like that is not uncommon. Nothing well below. I could see us averaging -5 to -10 for a week or so, though. I'll make an Apr 1-15 call tomorrow morning. 50's for highs, 30's for lows ain't terrible in early April...ain't "nice" but we've been much, much worse. I can live with it for a week and frankly given how mild we've been in March the hammer usually comes down hard...I just hope it's quick and as painless as possible when it does drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Verification for the Feb 15-29 period: +5.67 30 day temperature forecast at PHL: Mar 1-Mar 15: +8, down from +10 Mar 16-Mar 30: +6, but with a high bust potential in both directions. I won't have verification for the +8 Mar 1-15 call until Monday because I'm out of town on business. Mar 16-30: +10, up from +6 Apr 1-15: +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Does anyone have access to precip 0Z EURO map hr 240? Just wondering if the depicted ocean storm is throwing any moisture inland. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 GFS showing run of mill cool down post end of week storm...850 line gets to Toms River. EC has it in Wilmington....North Carolina. Disagreement much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I won't have verification for the +8 Mar 1-15 call until Monday because I'm out of town on business. Mar 16-30: +10, up from +6 Apr 1-15: +1 Mar 1-15 anomaly: +8.32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Mar 1-15 anomaly: +8.32 Good going at not buying into the 1931-32 March analog. Did anyone buy into that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Mt.Holly mentioned in their afternoon AFD of a potential significant rain event for Sunday, thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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