famartin Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's you're not stating, as one bodybuilder put it on twitter this morning, that it's "southward trending." Well, the body builder will be dissapointed in the GFS since it trended north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html Man, if that 10 day Euro verifies, it will have Adam dancing in the streets with nothing on but a big smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html Man, if that 10 day Euro verifies, it will have Adam dancing in the streets with nothing on but a big smile. Hell, I was already doing that looking at the prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hell, I was already doing that looking at the prog I'm so ready for this "winter" to end. I would look forward to spring every year, however i know the 90's with dew points of 75 always follow close behind. My ideal year would start in September and end in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hell, I was already doing that looking at the prog Here's a secret picture I took at where Adam works after that run came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html Man, if that 10 day Euro verifies, it will have Adam dancing in the streets with nothing on but a big smile. Well we can always oh yay him with that GFS solution for Sunday night. Be kind Adam, its all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well we can always oh yay him with that GFS solution for Sunday night. Be kind Adam, its all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Time to go look for the shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Here's a secret picture I took at where Adam works after that run came out. I sure hope Adam isn't the guy with no shirt on but has a face of a woman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 :deadhorse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 :deadhorse: lol. That storm fits this winter perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 lol. That storm fits this winter perfectly. 3/5 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 lol. That storm fits this winter perfectly. That storm fits perfectly for Delaware! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 70's next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 70's next weekend? I'd bet some decent coin that we break 70 sometime before the Ides of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'd bet some decent coin that we break 70 sometime before the Ides of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 i bet adam gets snowed on before his torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 ... Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'd bet some decent coin that we break 70 sometime before the Ides of March if we can get that high on the 12z Euro down about 75-100 more miles from its hr 204 position I'd go 70+. Trend is getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 What's the thinking on Monday at this point? The GFS has been showing pretty much the same thing for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 What's the thinking on Monday at this point? The GFS has been showing pretty much the same thing for a while now. euro has some precip, but no where near the gfs. Ggem has a coastal then the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Regarding Sunday/Monday, the 0Z GFS folded to the EC, while the GEM folded to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 30 day temperature anomaly forecast at PHL: Feb 15-Feb 29: +6 Mar 1-Mar 15: +10 Verification for the Feb 15-29 period: +5.67 30 day temperature forecast at PHL: Mar 1-Mar 15: +8, down from +10 Mar 16-Mar 30: +6, but with a high bust potential in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS runs look very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Verification for the Feb 15-29 period: +5.67 30 day temperature forecast at PHL: Mar 1-Mar 15: +8, down from +10 Mar 16-Mar 30: +6, but with a high bust potential in both directions. The EC & UK long range modeling would be the bust warm...GFS bust cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The EC & UK long range modeling would be the bust warm...GFS bust cold? More concerned with MJO heading to P7 and especially P8 the last 5-7 days of the month. I can envision a scenario where we average below normal the last week of the month under CAD while DCA ends up +5. As you said though, we could just as easily end up torching all the way through and I could bust by 5 degrees on the low side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 More concerned with MJO heading to P7 and especially P8 the last 5-7 days of the month. I can envision a scenario where we average below normal the last week of the month under CAD while DCA ends up +5. As you said though, we could just as easily end up torching all the way through and I could bust by 5 degrees on the low side. What happens if we enter the MJO circle of death (GFS' MJO prediction)? I'm still trying to get a better handle on MJO impacts when the wave weakens in certain areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 What happens if we enter the MJO circle of death (GFS' MJO prediction)? I'm still trying to get a better handle on MJO impacts when the wave weakens in certain areas... Who looks at the GFS? In all seriousness, at that point you'd have to look at other teleconnections, in this case, I'd start my forecast from a base of March weak Ninas and a weak to moderate +AO. That gets us warm but not super torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: the MJO, the Roundy stuff looks off to me and has for the last week or so, but this is another statistical projection that seems on point to me. You have to extrapolate from D20, but I think you get the idea of the uncertainty at the end of the month (look at the way the convection dampens as it gets to the dateline, but still significant subsidence over the IO). http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/fmaps.5day.MJO.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Regarding Sunday/Monday, the 0Z GFS folded to the EC, while the GEM folded to the GFS. That was one weird looking low when the GFS had it, it looked like one of those perfectly cylindrical silicon nodules (Star Trek - Devil In The Dark). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.