tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 IIRC, TNE stands for The New Era... lol how about the NWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Is that from Cybernations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 with the way how hes going maybe he should listen to TNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 <laughs nervously> now you're just trying to scare me...Seriously though, are you reading/hearing/looking at anything that speaks to a brutal summer? I kind of thought that we might be setting up for a blah, mild summer. (sorry for the long range post)... I don't have a clue about the summer, i was just half joking. The thing about summer though is even a normal, blah summer will have it's share of 90 degree heat with dew points of 208. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I don't have a clue about the summer, i was just half joking. The thing about summer though is even a normal, blah summer will have it's share of 90 degree heat with dew points of 208. Holy dew point!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 warmest day looks to be Thursday at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 can the euro and gfs be any farther apart w/ this next storm. GFS has the front through midday Friday, EURO brings a low up the front on Saturday as the front crosses the region early in the morning. What's 18 hours within 84 hours of this event between computer models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 can the euro and gfs be any farther apart w/ this next storm. GFS has the front through midday Friday, EURO brings a low up the front on Saturday as the front crosses the region early in the morning. What's 18 hours within 84 hours of this event between computer models! Euro ensemble is pretty close to the op. Spag charts show the op is right in the middle of the spread, at least in terms of track. You can probably guess which way I'm leaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Euro ensemble is pretty close to the op. Spag charts show the op is right in the middle of the spread, at least in terms of track. You can probably guess which way I'm leaning. I'm shocked by this development. I'm kinda thinking that we'll see a "blend" of the two...timing more of a Friday dinner/evening with a round of rain (not as heavy at the EC suggests) but a secondary low riding the front to slow things down a bit...just not as much as the EC suggests. Personally I think it's a bit too slow on the timing element. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm pretty worried about my +10 call for Mar 1-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm pretty worried about my +10 call for Mar 1-15. too low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm pretty worried about my +10 call for Mar 1-15. Delayed but not denied. Looks like the Mjo may lose its mojo into early march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Delayed but not denied. Looks like the Mjo may lose its mojo into early march. Check out my post on the main forum. Lots of uncertainty in the evolution of the MJO, which might screw up the forecast. I was expecting to be parked in 4-5-6 for Mar 1-15 when I made the original post back on V-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm pretty worried about my +10 call for Mar 1-15. You did keep NYC having a single digit low during that time, didn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm pretty worried about my +10 call for Mar 1-15. I just finished my string of mids and haven't really looked past our seven days much. Maybe this is climatological Karma about March. If you look at some of the ten warmest winters in Philly, some of the March(es) were not that mild and the grand-daddy of them all 1931-2 had more snow in March than the whole winter. Somewhere along the line the nao has to go negative, it is an oscillation after all isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I just finished my string of mids and haven't really looked past our seven days much. Maybe this is climatological Karma about March. If you look at some of the ten warmest winters in Philly, some of the March(es) were not that mild and the grand-daddy of them all 1931-2 had more snow in March than the whole winter. Somewhere along the line the nao has to go negative, it is an oscillation after all isn't it? 4-5 months (currently) of a +NAO seems short compared to the roughly 15 months of a -NAO. The previous 2 years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I just finished my string of mids and haven't really looked past our seven days much. Maybe this is climatological Karma about March. If you look at some of the ten warmest winters in Philly, some of the March(es) were not that mild and the grand-daddy of them all 1931-2 had more snow in March than the whole winter. Somewhere along the line the nao has to go negative, it is an oscillation after all isn't it? It's more about the phase speed of the MJO. Don and Wes aren't buying the Roundy stuff, but it at least gives me pause. We could be in P8 again by the 15th if Roundy is right. How does one even forecast the NAO 15-30 days out in March? The polar vortex is no longer important. Mountain torques on the Rockies could be important, I guess, but beyond that, I got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's more about the phase speed of the MJO. Don and Wes aren't buying the Roundy stuff, but it at least gives me pause. We could be in P8 again by the 15th if Roundy is right. How does one even forecast the NAO 15-30 days out in March? The polar vortex is no longer important. Mountain torques on the Rockies could be important, I guess, but beyond that, I got nothing. The problem is we're not really that good at forecasting it beyond a week or so even in winter and then its influence as the spring moves along weakens anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's more about the phase speed of the MJO. Don and Wes aren't buying the Roundy stuff, but it at least gives me pause. We could be in P8 again by the 15th if Roundy is right. How does one even forecast the NAO 15-30 days out in March? The polar vortex is no longer important. Mountain torques on the Rockies could be important, I guess, but beyond that, I got nothing. I just went to the ESRL site, wow that Atlantic its almost in the perfect +nao tripole, what the heck as Irishbri posted above we've had 4-5 months of +nao. The nina looks like its fading fast too and when was the last time there were negative ssta off the African coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I just went to the ESRL site, wow that Atlantic its almost in the perfect +nao tripole, what the heck as Irishbri posted above we've had 4-5 months of +nao. The nina looks like its fading fast too and when was the last time there were negative ssta off the African coast? I can't remember, but not particularly excited about this tropical season being an active one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Here are the March temps after the 10 warmest winters on record in PHL. Even with the new normals, the recent ones have been warm. Maybe not coincidental that three of these Marches were the snowiest month of the season. 1932...39.4F (coldest month)...5.8" snow (snowiest month) 1890...38.8F (coldest month)...5.8" snow (snowiest month again) 2002...45.5F...Trace snow 1998...45.5F (again).....0.1" snow 1933...41.4F...0.7" snow 1880...39.8F (no snow records taken) 1991...46.1F...0.7" snow 1913...47.6F....Trace of snow 1937...38.7F...7.8" snow (snowiest month of season) 1949...43.9F...0.9" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I can't remember, but not particularly excited about this tropical season being an active one. Well it only takes one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I can't remember, but not particularly excited about this tropical season being an active one. Well it only takes one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Adam, I can't find the olr outlooks anymore off the cpc site, you know the ones where it looked like the observed and outlooked did not align on the Euro and the GFS had the off the charts MJO phase 7. Have they been moved, stopped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Adam, I can't find the olr outlooks anymore off the cpc site, you know the ones where it looked like the observed and outlooked did not align on the Euro and the GFS had the off the charts MJO phase 7. Have they been moved, stopped? Haha, I blew our cover. I emailed the administrator to tell him the Euro wasn't updating and he wrote back to tell me that those products were never considered anything close to operational, so he removed them from the folder. P.S. Weeklies are a blowtorch through Week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Haha, I blew our cover. I emailed the administrator to tell him the Euro wasn't updating and he wrote back to tell me that those products were never considered anything close to operational, so he removed them from the folder. P.S. Weeklies are a blowtorch through Week 4. The sun did rise in the east today. The way the MJO is trundling along toward warmer phases and the NAO is outlooked to stay positive, hard to disagree with warmer than normal. I have got to start worrying about the fruit growers around here, everything is going to get off to a fast start without any cold shots to slow them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Still find it hard to believe how far off the Roundy MJO forecast is from the dynamical models and the Wheeler products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Wednesday 1 PM on the EC. FWIW, the high strengthened from 1029ish on 12z to 1034ish on 0z for the same time frame. It is *slightly* colder... This might be something for Poconos for a front end thump to rain type event (like Thursday night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Wednesday 1 PM on the EC. FWIW, the high strengthened from 1029ish on 12z to 1034ish on 0z for the same time frame. It is *slightly* colder... This might be something for Poconos for a front end thump to rain type event (like Thursday night). Yup this has been there with this system, especially with a 1030ish high tagging along north of this, that some snow will fall in the northern part of the precipitation shield. This is the more logical outcome than expecting a HECS or near HECS outcome that it had a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yup this has been there with this system, especially with a 1030ish high tagging along north of this, that some snow will fall in the northern part of the precipitation shield. This is the more logical outcome than expecting a HECS or near HECS outcome that it had a couple of days ago. It's you're not stating, as one bodybuilder put it on twitter this morning, that it's "southward trending." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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