Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Apparently the UKMET is a crushing blow and KU event from NC-NYC fwiw. Just stating what the model shows verbatim (unless I'm seeing old data again). (below from DT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 He would need a flatter solution with the northern stream hanging tougher. Meanwhile, we would need the 50/60 low to get out of the way. is this from you guys.......i thought it was pretty cool of you (NWS Mt Holly) to put this (the model performance charts) on FB................... https://www.facebook...&type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 is this from you guys.......i thought it was pretty cool of you (NWS Mt Holly) to put this (the model performance charts) on FB................... https://www.facebook...&type=1 Yeah that was us and thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hurricane threw a bone to the idea of Sunday potential jusayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I like seeing women walking around in sundresses as opposed to bundled up to the extreme? Other than that, I'd have to question Allsnow's and your capacity to read for context. It was a joke, relax. I know that is what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 adam and tony told me their forecasts this weekend are a blend of c000, p002, p008 if only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 That 0z Dr.No is so close to being a Dr.Dump. Do I dare to check the NY City forum? So it now looks like precip should be on the light late Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 So it now looks like precip should be on the light late Thursday? Still about .25" in the Pocs Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Just an FYI more than anything else, there are a couple of good threads to pay attention to in the Met 101 forum re: model guidance and how it's created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 What happened to all the posts in this thread? I see 10 e-mails but only 2 new posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 new thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 What happened to all the posts in this thread? I see 10 e-mails but only 2 new posts? I split them off into a 2/19 thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 JB's map for next week, heaviest snow dark blue Today: mostly sunny with temps in the upper 40's/low 50's. I don't want to be critical but this wasn't one of JB's better forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Today: mostly sunny with temps in the upper 40's/low 50's. I don't want to be critical but this wasn't one of JB's better forecasts. Wow, what a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Today: mostly sunny with temps in the upper 40's/low 50's. I don't want to be critical but this wasn't one of JB's better forecasts. Heckuva way to run a warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Adam should move the last few posts to the DT/JB/etc thread on the NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Adam should move the last few posts to the DT/JB/etc thread on the NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Today: mostly sunny with temps in the upper 40's/low 50's. I don't want to be critical but this wasn't one of JB's better forecasts. Credibility waives buh-bye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 30 day temperature anomaly forecast at PHL: Feb 15-Feb 29: +6 Mar 1-Mar 15: +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 30 day temperature anomaly forecast at PHL: Feb 15-Feb 29: +6 Mar 1-Mar 15: +10 70's in early march? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 70's in early march? I mean, it's possible. Means go from 46 to 51 over the course of the 1st-15th. I don't see any cold signals at all for that first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I mean, it's possible. Means go from 46 to 51 over the course of the 1st-15th. I don't see any cold signals at all for that first half of March. Then again, as we go into spring, a lot of the winter teleconnections start to lose their significance. By this time, it's not much help to look at the stratosphere for example, so I'm basing the entire forecast on the MJO, PDO, warm Atlantic SSTs, and no snow in Canada to develop cold air masses. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I mean, it's possible. Means go from 46 to 51 over the course of the 1st-15th. I don't see any cold signals at all for that first half of March. Based on the EC from last night we'd be entering phase 3 right around the last few days of Feb...perhaps the torch's arrival for March 6th on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 30 day temperature anomaly forecast at PHL: Feb 15-Feb 29: +6 Mar 1-Mar 15: +10 i hope we leap right into spring. My fear is we get into mid march to may with cool rainy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just quick question. Is the piece of energy on the water vapor over the four corners out west the storm being modeled or does another storm get cutoff from the jetstreams like this.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The s/w that eventually spins up the Gulf Low is in Southern California right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The s/w that eventually spins up the Gulf Low is in Southern California right now. Thanks, I like to follow the sat. pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 oooo a bl issue coastal at hr 177 on the GFS last night. The more impressive feature on the models last night was that deep low in the Northern Plains at hr 216+ on the Euro from last night. That looks fun to drive in a semi through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 oooo a bl issue coastal at hr 177 on the GFS last night. The more impressive feature on the models last night was that deep low in the Northern Plains at hr 216+ on the Euro from last night. That looks fun to drive in a semi through. We have had so many issues this winter that our issues have had issues. Today's 12z gfs run sure looks like that its in mode conflict with the mjo and teleconnection indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Could hit 60-65 on Friday ahead of the front...pretty potent storm that will blow into Canada. Might be a changeover to snow north/west of I-80 and I-81 post-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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