am19psu Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah i didn't call it a snowstorm, just a strong signal for a storm. I think the Euro and the ensembles have been beating this drum for a few runs in a row now. Hopefully for us snow lovers it trends colder and for you tropical guys, you just have to wait a little longer for the warmth! I don't think trending colder is in the cards. I think we're going to be holding out for a perfect storm track - if the signal even continues into the short range. Like I said, though, it's a better signal than most anything we've seen so far, especially since it's showing up in the ensembles at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS has storm signal as well. No 50/50 low makes it difficult for coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Do any of the mets utilize the cpc 8-14 day analog composite? For yesterday's map, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th listed analogs were February 9, 16, and 4. The article in Monthly Weather Review for that month exhibited several decent snowfalls for the Mid Atlantic states. I've tracked the 6-10 and 8-14 day analog composite most days this winter. As you might imagine, this is the first time all winter after looking at them that I've been motivated to post. Although the global models have pulled one too many Lucy Van Pelt football swipes to our Charlie Brown, I think we should keep an eye on the next 10 days - could be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Do any of the mets utilize the cpc 8-14 day analog composite? For yesterday's map, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th listed analogs were February 9, 16, and 4. The article in Monthly Weather Review for that month exhibited several decent snowfalls for the Mid Atlantic states. I've tracked the 6-10 and 8-14 day analog composite most days this winter. As you might imagine, this is the first time all winter after looking at them that I've been motivated to post. Although the global models have pulled one too many Lucy Van Pelt football swipes to our Charlie Brown, I think we should keep an eye on the next 10 days - could be interesting... I do. Sometimes it is useful, sometimes not. It's not at the top of the list for ways I create my MR forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Tom, Can you post what the euro shows late next week? Lakes cutter, apps cutter or coast? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Tom, Can you post what the euro shows late next week? Lakes cutter, apps cutter or coast? Thanks. sure... tues night/wed morn some lgt snow about a tenth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 sure... tues night/wed morn some lgt snow about a tenth was looking towards next thurs-saturday range or is that beyond the range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 was looking towards next thurs-saturday range or is that beyond the range? its getting there ill let you know what occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 its getting there ill let you know what occurs ok, thanks, didnt know it was still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 ok, thanks, didnt know it was still running. for the late week system its pushed back. The euro holds most of the energy in sw. It comes out towards day 9-10 at the same time as a strong clipper is coming down. Verbatim rain, low forms on the front and travels over sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 for the late week system its pushed back. The euro holds most of the energy in sw. It comes out towards day 9-10 at the same time as a strong clipper is coming down. Verbatim rain, low forms on the front and travels over sne ok, thanks tom. i've been following that one on the gfs runs for the last few days and was curious what the euro depicted, yeah i know it's out 7 days . glad to see saturday and early next week with some white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Coldest 24 hr period of the winter, although that's not saying much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS_loop.html 12z Euro ensembles continue the theme of a couple coastal storms in the next 10 days, not counting this weekends event. The ensembles have also lost the blowtorch period it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 JB latest tweet this afternoon - his map has 3" plus right across the Philly area once again for the Valentines Day (Tuesday) snow event...as Joe would say " one heck of a way to run a warm up: "Now I posted on this before but the "warmup"next week is going to be in relation to the cold before, but is no warm up unless you think a southern plains to mid and north atlantic snow event (storm) is a warmup. I have been saying that this pattern is going to a stormy split and I think the wheel is now turning my way. No storm coming into the west coast this weekend will disappear in a pattern like this, and guess what, it may simply amplify the NAO so the next storm is snow in many places plains to the northeast next weekend. But that is putting the cart before the horse. First things first, the western shade of blue is where I expect to see accumulating snow in the 24 hour period ending Tuesday 1 am ( so Monday) the right shade for the following 24 hours, and the deep blue the area I think right now has the best shot at 3 inches plus with this" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 JB's map for next week, heaviest snow dark blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 JB's map for next week, heaviest snow dark blue I am serious when I say this, but has been right about any patter/storm past October this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hey Darkstar quick answer....yes. Has it been a good year for him or any long range forecaster - no. He remains one of the more skilled professionals out there. Paul I am serious when I say this, but has been right about any patter/storm past October this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Latest from JB "The pattern has changed, below is excerpted from what I have been telling my clients. I realize that unless you have snow on the ground and wind chills to -20 ( wind chills in the northern plains are near -50 this morning and Sunday much of the northeast will have the required criteria) you dont believe it. But for anyone studying the pattern and understanding that the scene on the stage has been changed, you can see it. The WEATHER IS DOING THE OPPOSITE of what it was. For instance, in parts of the mid atlantic, snow tonight and then again Tuesday will make it 4 straight precip events it has snowed. But I think this pattern is heading for one more notable for storms and rumors of storms, than super cold. The coldest part may be upfront, but when one considers the overall pattern , this has alot of similarities to sleeper winters such as 1969 and 1993 where for much of the east and plains , the snow part of the winter did not wake up till February" "THIS IS NOT A WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE US but instead stormy. While the week three and four pull the trough back into the west more, I am riding the MJO train and the canadian ensembles for the day 11-15 and 16-20 lumping them together as the modeling is getting whipped in the east at 500 mb with the trough this weekend and next as if one simply goes back and looks at the forecast you can see we have had a change in the way the models are verifying from a long distance out.. INSTEAD OF MORE RIDGING IN THE EAST, THERE IS NOW MORE TROUGHING. So again, I am not going to go wild on temps over the east, but I am cold in much of the nation day 11-20, so much so I lumped them together. I expect a stubborn negative NAO to develop and the pattern now is storms, and rumors of storms. With the above in mind and my idea the Canadian with the further east position of the trough in its ensembles as closest to my thinking, one can see the model with a trough in the east and the merry go round of systems coming from the west and amplifying the trough as they do. I am playing the source region game, Keep in mind what you see , in spite of an overall eastern N America trough, has the deep negatives further south and as a matter of fact the day 8-12 period is ripe for a major storm in the east.. bigger than the event this weekend which will slap people in the fact with the cold that comes for two days after" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ^ He has nailed the "rumors of storms" all winter long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The GGEM has a big snowstorm 7 days out. The Euro has a big snowstorm 10 days out. I'm not biting until it's 7-10 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The GGEM has a big snowstorm 7 days out. The Euro has a big snowstorm 10 days out. I'm not biting until it's 7-10 hours out. LOL. I still like the 17-18th as the better potential for a major storm, but it still looks more interior to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL. I still like the 17-18th as the better potential for a major storm, but it still looks more interior to me. Well Lancaster is more interior then Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well Lancaster is more interior then Philly. I like the way you think I hope we can get one moderate event this winter, although the Oct one was a pretty good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like the way you think I hope we can get one moderate event this winter, although the Oct one was a pretty good start. I think we will. Then i hope we have a cool, cloudy summer so i can troll Adam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think we will. Then i hope we have a cool, cloudy summer so i can troll Adam. Troll me? I root for that every summer. EDIT: Actually, I root for clear, cool summers with low DPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Troll me? I root for that every summer. EDIT: Actually, I root for clear, cool summers with low DPs Dang it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KNYC lol...JB will be 20 degrees off for Monday morning if MOS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The 6Zand 12Z GFS are very stormy in the coming weeks for SEPA, Northern DE and Southern NJ. Unfortunately, it warms up each time the storm approaches so it's either snow to rain or just rain. The 0Z Euro yields a rainstorm. The typical storm track (as it has been for much of this winter) is a Southern Slider that both mostly misses us to the south and amplies too far offshore to do anyone any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_12z_slp_all.htm Both the 6Z and the 12Z GFS show the potential President's Storm as a low going off the southeast coast at this time. I like the look though with high pressure to the north, storm to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 After the thu/fri system, cool down and then moderate for the President's Day storm per GFS (which is modeled to be kinda weak as of the 0z run last night). Generally milder in the extended range (post 240) with perhaps a one-two day cold shot mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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