Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Jan 19-20th Observations


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 754
  • Created
  • Last Reply

For those with a QPF fetish. TAN reporting 0.23" from all of this.

METAR KTAN 200452Z AUTO 26003KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M01/M02 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP152 P0023 T10111017 400001122

Y

eah that is why you do not take model qpf verbatim in these setups...there are going to be enhancement jackpots that they cannot pick up on...the biggest red flag on some weenie jackpots was the instability and the inflow/LL convergence.

Snow growth was good too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Y

eah that is why you do not take model qpf verbatim in these setups...there are going to be enhancement jackpots that they cannot pick up on...the biggest red flag on some weenie jackpots was the instability and the inflow/LL convergence.

Snow growth was good too.

The perfect recipe for a thumper. Looks to be waning out there, I got some silver dollar sized flakes falling amongst the others.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models also tried to weaken the big band as it went east, which I didn't buy. I was mentioning to this Scott earlier tonight. It didn't make sense given the increasing inflow and LL convergence...sometimes the models get a bit too married to the upper level stuff and don't look at the low level stuff enough occurring near or just above the BL...they will give some weenie jackpots to the higher terrain, like they did in this case, but I thought E areas in RI and E MA had a better shot at 3" than I did.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks! I'll be calling in tomorrow. Hopefully they played the new song I gave them this week.

So, I'm looking at the radar and the 4" seemed to happen in No more than an hour so either the radars I'm looking at suck, or this was God'd Band.... Help me out guys....

Yeah Cory, we had a thumper. Your area got under a 35dbz+ band and it was coming down 2-3"/hr.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models also tried to weaken the big band as it went east, which I didn't buy. I was mentioning to this Scott earlier tonight. It didn't make sense given the increasing inflow and LL convergence...sometimes the models get a bit too married to the upper level stuff and don't look at the low level stuff enough occurring near or just above the BL...they will give some weenie jackpots to the higher terrain, like they did in this case, but I thought E areas in RI and E MA had a better shot at 3" than I did.

This is where the meso models can be helpful, like the RSM.

Time to measure. Snows are light now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is where the meso models can be helpful, like the RSM.

Time to measure. Snows are light now.

The RSM seems to do very well in these weird meso setups and windex setups (I remember the RSM absolutely nailed the 1/28/10 windex event)....the NAM is supposed to be a meso model and the best one at that...but it didn't show the intensifying over E MA as the RSM did...it tried to weaken it a bit after it crossed the ORH hills...and then not strengthen it again until it was over the Cape.

Often in these setups, common sense and previous knowledge can trump a lot of models...since models are so heavily based on upper air dynamics which drives out wx more than anything..but in these particular instances, the upper air can not "see" some of the low level stuff going on, esp when the flow is weak up there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The RSM seems to do very well in these weird meso setups and windex setups (I remember the RSM absolutely nailed the 1/28/10 windex event)....the NAM is supposed to be a meso model and the best one at that...but it didn't show the intensifying over E MA as the RSM did...it tried to weaken it a bit after it crossed the ORH hills...and then not strengthen it again until it was over the Cape.

Often in these setups, common sense and previous knowledge can trump a lot of models...since models are so heavily based on upper air dynamics which drives out wx more than anything..but in these particular instances, the upper air can not "see" some of the low level stuff going on, esp when the flow is weak up there.

The NAM certainly hinted at it with the instability showing up.

Based on the 0.23" it looks like ratios were over 15:1 with this. Nice fluff job.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM certainly hinted at it with the instability showing up.

Based on the 0.23" it looks like ratios were over 15:1 with this. Nice fluff job.

Yes it did...that is why we tell people to sometimes stop with the QPF fetish...we saw the instability parameters and thought there could be some pretty heavy bursts.

The models can often pick this up, but it does not translate to the qpf...that is why some of us hate the QPF fetish, lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...