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Jan 19-20th Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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Two nice little cells there.

Eastern edge rots a bit as it tries to move in, I remember Walt talking about that effect for years.

I know you're expecting to not get much due to it being too warm and on the fringe but it looks like you're in line to get in on some very heavy precip based on how the radar looks. I don't see how it would miss you. I'd be surprised if you don't pick up at least an 1" if not around 2"

I agree what you said about the Euro for eastern areas but it didn't get things going until E MA and missed the boat on things developing earlier in CT and RI, and was generally a bit light for w ma and the worcester/springfield areas.

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I know you're expecting to not get much due to it being too warm and on the fringe but it looks like you're in line to get in on some very heavy precip based on how the radar looks. I don't see how it would miss you. I'd be surprised if you don't pick up at least an 1" if not around 2"

I agree what you said about the Euro for eastern areas but it didn't get things going until E MA and missed the boat on things developing earlier in CT and RI, and was generally a bit light for w ma and the worcester/springfield areas.

No doubt it wasn't perfect. I think it was late firing and therefore too weak throughout, but it def would have had the most snow in eastern areas coming out around Bob up to Scooter. This seems to always be the case, the Euro tends to be more conservative and is usually "more" correct while the NAM/GFS end up too robust and having to cut back late in the game. It was Will and the guys a year or two ago that pointed this out to me and with access to wunder we can all see it play out each time now.

The 0z NAM was fine, this is now an ultra thin band of heavy snow...can only expect models to do so well.

Models weren't bad, the guys here were better.

The problem here is temps, the SE wind of death, and time is not on our side. The back edge seems to have slowed a bit as Bob mentioned we're seeing some inflow. But we've still got the issue of it being quite a bit above freezing. Originally thought .75 to 1.25....I figure it'll be in that range.

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That was a pretty good band that just went through. Got about .5-.75 in twenty minutes.

What are we looking at for a time of when the snow shuts off? Looking at radar it doesn't look like too much for fun besides southeast mass and that line out in NY state but usually those don't make it to NE intact.

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