Storm potential around January 27th-28th

[weatherwiz]

After an incredibly boring and absolute abysmal start to the meteorological season in terms of snowfall and lack of cold (not going to complain about that actually!) we are finally beginning to see the weather pattern become more active and a bit more favorable in terms of snowfall potential for our region. This all first began with what really was the first region-wide snowfall accumulation event since late October. A clipper system that will cross through the northern tier of southern New England looks to drop a coating to 2'' with isolated 3'' amounts across the region and then Saturday night a system could produce high end advisory/low-end warning criteria for some. Anyways let's get to the point of this thread...the period of the 27th/28th.

Both the Euro and the GFS are suggesting the potential will exist for yet another storm system to affect the region sometime around this time frame. As usual when dealing with phasing scenarios in the medium and long-range there are some timing differences between the two models. At this point in time considering this is in the 7-8 day range focusing too much on timing differences is rather unimportant and the bigger concern should be on pattern recognition and how each model is handling/evolving the pattern.

If you take a look at the 0z/19 GFS beginning at around hours 168-171 you can see a system is entering the northern tier of the United States around the upper mid-west. During the same time frame the Euro has this feature as well. Over time on both runs both models deepen this trough as it moves eastward and digs further south.

The GFS has a piece of energy rotating through New York and into New England while a second piece of energy rotates around the backside of the trough and digs south towards the mid-Atlantic. It's hard to get a more detailed depiction on the euro as I'm using ewall and it goes from HR-168 to HR-116 but it does appear the Euro perhaps has more of a phase going on...GFS is pretty close but just misses...anyways though this is unimportant at this time.

Looking at teleconnections ensemble forecasts do show the NAO trying to head negative around this time although there does appear to be some spread involved. Ensembles also show the PNA slightly rising as well more towards neutral territory .

Will be interesting to see what transpires, if anything or how this continues to be modeled over the next several days. However, even though we are 7-8 days out give me both models showing a deepening trough to our west along with some s/w energy and potential for phasing and my interest will be peaked.