West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Greatest pressure falls are now along the VA/NC border which is a good sign for us that the storm may wind up a bit further east when all is said and done. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The 12z NAM is indicating the potential for some heavy banded snowfall in The Hudson Valley tonight. Here's an image for 06z Thursday. The shaded contour shows strong low level frontogenesis over Ulster and Dutchess counties. The green contour shows very negative EPV which suggests some CSI over the region. This will be during a period where the 1000-850 mb thicknesses are below 1300 meters, which is usually the threshold for snowfall. If the NAM is correct, there could be a period of very heavy snow tonight for parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Columbia counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The 12z NAM is indicating the potential for some heavy banded snowfall in The Hudson Valley tonight. Here's an image for 06z Thursday. Interesting analysis, thanks! I think the general consensus right now is that the NAM will bust too warm, but hopefully it's got a clue for the strong dynamics you talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If the NAM is correct, there could be a period of very heavy snow tonight for parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Columbia counties. Lets just drop that puppy south about 30-50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Upton playing catch up for Orange County.. Still think they are too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Interesting analysis, thanks! I think the general consensus right now is that the NAM will bust too warm, but hopefully it's got a clue for the strong dynamics you talked about. Yeah it's strange that the NAM has a track very similar to the latest GEM, but it brings the 0c 850 line north of ALB. The GEM from what I can see on the ewall site keeps the 0c line south of the CT/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Upton playing catch up for Orange County.. Still think they are too low Got the whole county over 6 now. Underdone at least on west portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah it's strange that the NAM has a track very similar to the latest GEM, but it brings the 0c 850 line north of ALB. The GEM from what I can see on the ewall site keeps the 0c line south of the CT/MA border. Toss the NAM thermal profileSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ====================================== PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850 HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. SEE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS FROM HPC AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS CYCLONE. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. TREND-WISE, THE GUIDANCE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, BUT THE NAM HAS STOPPED TRENDING QUICKER/NORTHEAST. WITH THE 21Z SREF/00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE QUICKER NON-NAM CONSENSUS, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I turned on TWC which is a rare occurrence for me, their map graphics are horrible. They were better in the 80's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 As we can see on the above pressure map which should update every hour, the secondary has now been born over Norfolk VA which is considerably south and east of where it was modeled. Now providing this doesn't literally hug the coast as it rides NE/NNE then we are in the bigger game west of the Thruway. The one fly in the ointment to watch as the low deepens is if some good convection fires up offshore later on. This would potentially pump the ridge to the east and keep the storm closer to the coast. But since this morning seeing the parent low having trouble getting out of TN, everything seems to be correctly falling in line for a big snow event around here. Watch the catch-up forecasts as the evening progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW STILL FORECAST FOR NW ZONES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE INCREASED BY 1-2" BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THIS TREND. ONE OTHER ASPECT OF NOTE IS THAT IT APPEARS AS IF THE STORM IS DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE STRONGER WINDS WOULD SHIFT EAST...AND THE IMPACT FROM THE WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE BASED ON THIS...IT IS JUST AN EARLY TREND WE ARE BEGINNING TO NOTICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 -SN has begun here by exit 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Flurries here.. 24/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Moderate snow here now. Latest pressure falls are greatest just inland in E. VA. Gotta get that off the coast soon or we will have sleetfest tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Moderate snow here now. Latest pressure falls are greatest just inland in E. VA. Gotta get that off the coast soon or we will have sleetfest tonight.. Agreed. I hate when it's 20 something degrees and sleeting. It's such a tease. I'd almost rather have plain rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Light snow here with some blowing already off of the roof. As far as the sleet, if it happens it helps to solidify the snow pack and that's fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Up to 3" an hour possible for some of us, wow! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2236.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Quickly approaching 2" here.. Heavy Snow w/ the temp steady at 23.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Approaching 3 inches here in my area of Monroe and it is coming down heavy. 25 degrees Just hope it stays snow for most of the night. If it does we should easily make the 4-8 currently predicted. Good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 1.5" in Wappingers Falls in the past hour, moderate to heavy falling. Keep that rain/snow line south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Approaching 3 inches here in my area of Monroe and it is coming down heavy. 25 degrees Just hope it stays snow for most of the night. If it does we should easily make the 4-8 currently predicted. Good stuff! Greatest pressure fall is now over S. NJ which is not a good location for us to stay snow. With that track, while it can stay cold enough for snow at the surface, warm layers will mix in from above. Thinking we all go to PL/ZR by midnight. Hopefully sleet rather than ice. But this track sucks. Never thought it would ride inland to NJ. Even the warmest models had it a little offshore. As Clint Eastwood would say, "right turn Clyde". And we need it in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You should be in GFL for this. ALB has me in 12"+ Are you down there in Monroe all the time now? Greatest pressure fall is now over S. NJ which is not a good location for us to stay snow. With that track, while it can stay cold enough for snow at the surface, warm layers will mix in from above. Thinking we all go to PL/ZR by midnight. Hopefully sleet rather than ice. But this track sucks. Never thought it would ride inland to NJ. Even the warmest models had it a little offshore. As Clint Eastwood would say, "right turn Clyde". And we need it in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM still wallops the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You should be in GFL for this. ALB has me in 12"+ Are you down there in Monroe all the time now? For the forseeable future. I am renting my house up in Queensbury for now. Wife has a good job in Westchester thanks to her sister who wanted her back down in Orange Cty. She is getting sick of the commute, especially on nights like this when it will take her 3 hrs . to drive home. Unfortunately for me though, until she goes back to being stay at home mom, I'm stuck down here. Being at 1K helps with the latitude problem but not in storms like this. Going over to PL already every time it lets up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ahh..makes sense then...good to have some elevation anyway. I stopped at that BJ's there near exit 16 on the way home. That's a negative that you have PL at times already there. I think I get mostly snow, but wouldn't be shocked if we ping a little bit here in the AM. ALB did remove all mention of sleet from my latest point/click.... For the forseeable future. I am renting my house up in Queensbury for now. Wife has a good job in Westchester thanks to her sister who wanted her back down in Orange Cty. She is getting sick of the commute, especially on nights like this when it will take her 3 hrs . to drive home. Unfortunately for me though, until she goes back to being stay at home mom, I'm stuck down here. Being at 1K helps with the latitude problem but not in storms like this. Going over to PL already every time it lets up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Greatest pressure fall is now over S. NJ which is not a good location for us to stay snow. With that track, while it can stay cold enough for snow at the surface, warm layers will mix in from above. Thinking we all go to PL/ZR by midnight. Hopefully sleet rather than ice. But this track sucks. Never thought it would ride inland to NJ. Even the warmest models had it a little offshore. As Clint Eastwood would say, "right turn Clyde". And we need it in a hurry. The greatest pressure falls now seem to be offshore now per the SPC map. Pretty bright banding on radar pushing north, I wonder if anyone in the HV will get some thundersnow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The greatest pressure falls now seem to be offshore now per the SPC map. Pretty bright banding on radar pushing north, I wonder if anyone in the HV will get some thundersnow from this. Excellent!! That would be the "right turn clyde" we need. Snowing and blowing to beat the band here. Eyeballing between 3-4" OTG now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Heavy Snow w/a temp of 23.4 4.2 on the ground.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's blowing around too much here to get a solid measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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