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The Hudson Valley Thread


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The 12z NAM is indicating the potential for some heavy banded snowfall in The Hudson Valley tonight. Here's an image for 06z Thursday.

post-869-0-09721800-1356540764_thumb.gif

The shaded contour shows strong low level frontogenesis over Ulster and Dutchess counties. The green contour shows very negative EPV which suggests some CSI over the region. This will be during a period where the 1000-850 mb thicknesses are below 1300 meters, which is usually the threshold for snowfall. If the NAM is correct, there could be a period of very heavy snow tonight for parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Columbia counties.

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Interesting analysis, thanks! I think the general consensus right now is that the NAM will bust too warm, but hopefully it's got a clue for the strong dynamics you talked about.

Yeah it's strange that the NAM has a track very similar to the latest GEM, but it brings the 0c 850 line north of ALB. The GEM from what I can see on the ewall site keeps the 0c line south of the CT/MA border.

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Yeah it's strange that the NAM has a track very similar to the latest GEM, but it brings the 0c 850 line north of ALB. The GEM from what I can see on the ewall site keeps the 0c line south of the CT/MA border.

Toss the NAM thermal profile

STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST

======================================

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850

HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO

VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN

THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE

POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER

PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. SEE WINTER WEATHER

GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS FROM HPC AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON

SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS CYCLONE.

DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN

THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE

NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST

CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED

SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. TREND-WISE, THE GUIDANCE HAS

STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, BUT THE NAM

HAS STOPPED TRENDING QUICKER/NORTHEAST. WITH THE 21Z SREF/00Z

GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE QUICKER NON-NAM

CONSENSUS, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH

AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

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As we can see on the above pressure map which should update every hour, the secondary has now been born over Norfolk VA which is considerably south and east of where it was modeled. Now providing this doesn't literally hug the coast as it rides NE/NNE then we are in the bigger game west of the Thruway. The one fly in the ointment to watch as the low deepens is if some good convection fires up offshore later on. This would potentially pump the ridge to the east and keep the storm closer to the coast. But since this morning seeing the parent low having trouble getting out of TN, everything seems to be correctly falling in line for a big snow event around here. Watch the catch-up forecasts as the evening progresses. :snowwindow:

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MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW STILL FORECAST FOR NW ZONES. SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE INCREASED BY 1-2" BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON

THIS TREND.

ONE OTHER ASPECT OF NOTE IS THAT IT APPEARS AS IF THE STORM IS

DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. IF THIS

TREND CONTINUES...THE STRONGER WINDS WOULD SHIFT EAST...AND THE

IMPACT FROM THE WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE A BIT LESS

THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE BASED ON

THIS...IT IS JUST AN EARLY TREND WE ARE BEGINNING TO NOTICE.

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Approaching 3 inches here in my area of Monroe and it is coming down heavy.

25 degrees

Just hope it stays snow for most of the night.

If it does we should easily make the 4-8 currently predicted. Good stuff!

Greatest pressure fall is now over S. NJ which is not a good location for us to stay snow. With that track, while it can stay cold enough for snow at the surface, warm layers will mix in from above. Thinking we all go to PL/ZR by midnight. Hopefully sleet rather than ice. But this track sucks. Never thought it would ride inland to NJ. Even the warmest models had it a little offshore. As Clint Eastwood would say, "right turn Clyde". And we need it in a hurry.
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You should be in GFL for this. :) ALB has me in 12"+ Are you down there in Monroe all the time now?

Greatest pressure fall is now over S. NJ which is not a good location for us to stay snow. With that track, while it can stay cold enough for snow at the surface, warm layers will mix in from above. Thinking we all go to PL/ZR by midnight. Hopefully sleet rather than ice. But this track sucks. Never thought it would ride inland to NJ. Even the warmest models had it a little offshore. As Clint Eastwood would say, "right turn Clyde". And we need it in a hurry.

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You should be in GFL for this. :) ALB has me in 12"+ Are you down there in Monroe all the time now?

For the forseeable future. I am renting my house up in Queensbury for now. Wife has a good job in Westchester thanks to her sister who wanted her back down in Orange Cty. She is getting sick of the commute, especially on nights like this when it will take her 3 hrs . to drive home. Unfortunately for me though, until she goes back to being stay at home mom, I'm stuck down here. Being at 1K helps with the latitude problem but not in storms like this. Going over to PL already every time it lets up a bit.
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Ahh..makes sense then...good to have some elevation anyway. I stopped at that BJ's there near exit 16 on the way home.

That's a negative that you have PL at times already there. I think I get mostly snow, but wouldn't be shocked if we ping a little bit here in the AM. ALB did remove all mention of sleet from my latest point/click....

For the forseeable future. I am renting my house up in Queensbury for now. Wife has a good job in Westchester thanks to her sister who wanted her back down in Orange Cty. She is getting sick of the commute, especially on nights like this when it will take her 3 hrs . to drive home. Unfortunately for me though, until she goes back to being stay at home mom, I'm stuck down here. Being at 1K helps with the latitude problem but not in storms like this. Going over to PL already every time it lets up a bit.

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Greatest pressure fall is now over S. NJ which is not a good location for us to stay snow. With that track, while it can stay cold enough for snow at the surface, warm layers will mix in from above. Thinking we all go to PL/ZR by midnight. Hopefully sleet rather than ice. But this track sucks. Never thought it would ride inland to NJ. Even the warmest models had it a little offshore. As Clint Eastwood would say, "right turn Clyde". And we need it in a hurry.

The greatest pressure falls now seem to be offshore now per the SPC map. Pretty bright banding on radar pushing north, I wonder if anyone in the HV will get some thundersnow from this.

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The greatest pressure falls now seem to be offshore now per the SPC map. Pretty bright banding on radar pushing north, I wonder if anyone in the HV will get some thundersnow from this.

Excellent!! That would be the "right turn clyde" we need. Snowing and blowing to beat the band here. Eyeballing between 3-4" OTG now.
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