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The Hudson Valley Thread


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Hey, glad to see that you stopped by over here. I agree that we just need to be patient but I think that's hard for many as they hear Christmas music talking about snow, sleigh rides, and winter wonderlands! Myself included ;)

I'm with you Rob... I'm tired of having to look 10 days down the road to have anything to be excited about. I need this arctic floodgate to open up. This weather has been a snoozer for the most part. GFS is hinting at a colder solution on the 16th - 17th that would produce snow... but EURO has more warmth. How about the GFS be right for once?!

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I'm with you Rob... I'm tired of having to look 10 days down the road to have anything to be excited about. I need this arctic floodgate to open up. This weather has been a snoozer for the most part. GFS is hinting at a colder solution on the 16th - 17th that would produce snow... but EURO has more warmth. How about the GFS be right for once?!

It doesn't look to me like the floodgates open up before the end of the month, but especially with the central-west based NAO block I have some hope that more widespread snow could take place at least once before 12/31. I'm not too sure about the 16-17th event, that one looks marginal at this time, but there's more potentials coming up after this.

The GEFS for the medium range, finally not 300+ hours out or something like that, does offer hope:

post-1753-0-43593600-1355202151_thumb.gi

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Thanks to IrishRob17 for introducing me to these forums....

Current Wx pattern is rather boring... no prospects of a significant storm... no threat of snow. Anyone want to step up to the plate and predict "if" and "when" this -NAO and -AO finally start to pay some winter dividends (for our area)? It's only Dec 10th and I've gotta keep the faith... I'm even confident of a White Christmas... so what does everyone else think?

I don't know what pattern you are looking at but I see a blocking pattern setting up to the north with southern jet stream sending bowling balls from west to east across the country to our south for the rest of the year starting later this weekend. Almost half the country has the potential for snow on the ground by Christmas which is very rare. Boring? I think not.
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It doesn't look to me like the floodgates open up before the end of the month, but especially with the central-west based NAO block I have some hope that more widespread snow could take place at least once before 12/31. I'm not too sure about the 16-17th event, that one looks marginal at this time, but there's more potentials coming up after this.

The GEFS for the medium range, finally not 300+ hours out or something like that, does offer hope:

post-1753-0-43593600-1355202151_thumb.gi

Agreed, I'm not sold on the 16-17 event either. I think that is part of what transitions us and sets us up for what might come after. The 18-19 nor'easter potential looks interesting, but more than that the general pattern looks very active. Definitely lots of potential for the rest of December.

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I don't know what pattern you are looking at but I see a blocking pattern setting up to the north with southern jet stream sending bowling balls from west to east across the country to our south for the rest of the year starting later this weekend. Almost half the country has the potential for snow on the ground by Christmas which is very rare. Boring? I think not.

If the weather pattern over the last 2 weeks was exciting to you... I don't wanna see what happens when a major nor'easter actually hits.

My comment about the boring weather had to do with the last 2 weeks of weather, not the potential beyond Dec 15th. On that point, I agree with you... there is a LOT on the table the last 2 weeks of December, including multple chances for accumulating snow before Christmas. The question I asked was when are we going to see all this 'potential' start becoming a reality, because the models can't decide on when the cold will begin surging into our area. I've been watching this since late Nov, and the "arctic express" just keeps getting delayed more each day.

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If the weather pattern over the last 2 weeks was exciting to you... I don't wanna see what happens when a major nor'easter actually hits.

My comment about the boring weather had to do with the last 2 weeks of weather, not the potential beyond Dec 15th. On that point, I agree with you... there is a LOT on the table the last 2 weeks of December, including multple chances for accumulating snow before Christmas. The question I asked was when are we going to see all this 'potential' start becoming a reality, because the models can't decide on when the cold will begin surging into our area. I've been watching this since late Nov, and the "arctic express" just keeps getting delayed more each day.

You stated "Current Wx pattern is rather boring... no prospects of a significant storm... no threat of snow." I'm opining that is incorrect. While the system on the 16-17th is not a lock for snow here, there is a significant possibility. After that, there is potential for 2 more storms before Christmas that would heavily favor snow with the block in place. So going forward from today is not boring in the least and using the word current is not indicating you were speaking about the last 2 weeks. The storm yesterday, while not wintery around here, produced a mid-west blizzard, a tornado outbreak in the deep south and an ice-storm in parts of S. Ontario and Quebec hardly benign weather
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You stated "Current Wx pattern is rather boring... no prospects of a significant storm... no threat of snow." I'm opining that is incorrect. While the system on the 16-17th is not a lock for snow here, there is a significant possibility. After that, there is potential for 2 more storms before Christmas that would heavily favor snow with the block in place. So going forward from today is not boring in the least and using the word current is not indicating you were speaking about the last 2 weeks. The storm yesterday, while not wintery around here, produced a mid-west blizzard, a tornado outbreak in the deep south and an ice-storm in parts of S. Ontario and Quebec hardly benign weather

It comes down to what your definition of prospects of a significant storm is I suppose. I believe that you also need to factor in the wild ride the models have been on over the past few days. IMO the pattern has been more than boring for me in the past couple of weeks and I'm guessing that others felt the same way because theres only been crickets in this thread. Over the past couple of weeks the models kept showing changes just 10 days away over and over again. Now is seems like the propects of a pattern change is gaining traction and the 10 days away is now becoming, 9, 8, 7 days, etc away and we have a shot a storms again. So maybe I'm conservative but only now that the change appears to get closer do I think we are getting into the prospects of some storms. I'm liking the direction that we are heading in now for the second half of the month.

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0z GFS smashes parts of the HV with a heavy snowstorm for the 2nd event, too bad it has a terrible handle regarding the H5 set up in this time frame... I see no reason to expect it to not change significantly again with the next few runs.

I agree that it will likely change but the key thing is that we have opportunities that are showing up within 10 days. It's getting interesting now.

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I agree that it will likely change but the key thing is that we have opportunities that are showing up within 10 days. It's getting interesting now.

It's definitely getting interesting, probably the most interesting winter time frame since 2010-11... the main question now appears to be where. The potential for a snowstorm with the 19-20th event is definitely there, it will take a while for the models to get a better handle on it though. The 16-17th event also isn't handled too well although that one I'm thinking is more for the central-northern Northeast with some front end snow for parts of the Hudson Valley.

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12z CMC buries us wow.. Dream run smh.. Too bad it's gonna change in 12 hrs

1 to just under 2 feet of snow in the Hudson Valley... that would be awesome if it actually happened. Although it's way overdone, at least chances for some accumulations are starting to look better out of this. At the very worst there would still probably be some front end snow.

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......FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTH INTO THE POCONOS.

* HAZARDS...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...ARRIVING AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUE UNTIL NOON WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME COATED WITH LIGHT ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

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Snow forecast today was a fail. Didn't see anything on the ground or in the air since I woke up this morning, forecast was for 1/2" of snow. This was the same storm that the CMC had as a 20 inch blizzard a few days ago...

Once again we're getting into late December with almost no snow. After these storms I'm going back to NE NJ for a while, not too sure how snow chances will be there compared to the HV. I'm still thinking at least one snow event is possible before the end of the month, but it's a bit hard to stay hopeful when KALB is approaching 8" below average and when it's been almost 11 months since the last time I saw over an inch.

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Just got finished looking at just about every computer model under the sun... I've gotta say, I'm putting the odds of a white Christmas under 25% at this point for anyone south of ALB and under 1000ft in elevation. Cold air will rush in behind Thur/Fri storm, but not in time to give us any snow.

Next 5 days see 2 rainstorms for Hudson Valley, then the arctic express hits. Problem is... by then the moisture is gone. Cold & dry pattern locks in thru Christmas... only snow to be found will be lake effect. Winter may not be far away... but it looks too late for a white Christmas.

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Just got finished looking at just about every computer model under the sun... I've gotta say, I'm putting the odds of a white Christmas under 25% at this point for anyone south of ALB and under 1000ft in elevation. Cold air will rush in behind Thur/Fri storm, but not in time to give us any snow.

Next 5 days see 2 rainstorms for Hudson Valley, then the arctic express hits. Problem is... by then the moisture is gone. Cold & dry pattern locks in thru Christmas... only snow to be found will be lake effect. Winter may not be far away... but it looks too late for a white Christmas.

That seems reasonable to me considering the way things have gone over the past few days.

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Just got finished looking at just about every computer model under the sun... I've gotta say, I'm putting the odds of a white Christmas under 25% at this point for anyone south of ALB and under 1000ft in elevation. Cold air will rush in behind Thur/Fri storm, but not in time to give us any snow.

Next 5 days see 2 rainstorms for Hudson Valley, then the arctic express hits. Problem is... by then the moisture is gone. Cold & dry pattern locks in thru Christmas... only snow to be found will be lake effect. Winter may not be far away... but it looks too late for a white Christmas.

Do not overlook the possibility of the upper low dumbelling south in the fri-sat period as it hits the block in Quebec. That may be enough to cause widespread squally conditions down to PA/NJ. As always, elevation does count though with probabilities.
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Do not overlook the possibility of the upper low dumbelling south in the fri-sat period as it hits the block in Quebec. That may be enough to cause widespread squally conditions down to PA/NJ. As always, elevation does count though with probabilities.

100% correct. Between the strength of that upper low, and the cold air we finally are in line for... we could get a quick burst of accumulating snow in the Mid Hudson valley. Fingers crossed... we deserve it.

Also will be curious to watch how the storm system next week plays out. With so many players on the field in the next 7 days, don't be surprised if the models are wrong about another GLC. We are due for a nor'easter... and once we get 1... they could come in bunches.

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The pattern finally looks to get more interesting... may not be all snowstorms but at least some snow with a more active pattern is an improvement over what we've had so far. I'm especially liking the block in Canada, the storm next week doesn't look like a done deal GLC at this time and I'd think at least some snow is associated with it in the HV. The GFS looks like the snowier case scenario with 6-12" along with a south transfer, although it's been inconsistent as usual in this time range. There's still too much inconsistency with the models to know exactly where this tracks but the block and overall set up does suggest snow potential for the HV, especially if something close to the latest GFS/CMC runs verifies.

It will also be interesting to see what happens with that potential mini-clipper event on Christmas that the GFS, CMC and ECM have been suggesting. Doesn't look like anything major but if it verifies, perhaps could bring some mood flakes across the region while also having some influence on the late week storm.

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... Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 am EST

Friday...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Wind

Advisory... which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 am EST

Friday.

* Locations... all of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.

* Winds... sustained winds from the south and southeast will

increase to 15 to 30 mph this evening... continuing into the

overnight hours. Gusts could reach 40 to 50 mph... especially

over the higher elevations.

* Timing... the strongest... most frequent gusts are likely to occur

later this evening... and through the overnight

period... generally between 9 PM and 4 am.

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