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The Hudson Valley Thread


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Is this the same ECM that showed a whiff with the last event? Its a good model but not always gonna be right.

Agreed - that was my main issue with the ECM for the last storm, just because it nailed Sandy doesn't mean it's always the most reliable model. It was way too far west with the early November snowstorm and too suppressed with the recent storm in the medium range. It's not impossible that there won't be much precipitation from this, but I'd expect at least something closer to the GFS with snow showers and some light accumulations, which is reasonably drier than the NAM which was too wet for the last event.

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Agreed - that was my main issue with the ECM for the last storm, just because it nailed Sandy doesn't mean it's always the most reliable model. It was way too far west with the early November snowstorm and too suppressed with the recent storm in the medium range. It's not impossible that there won't be much precipitation from this, but I'd expect at least something closer to the GFS with snow showers and some light accumulations, which is reasonably drier than the NAM which was too wet for the last event.

Yeah I agree.. Don't see this producing much. Maybe C-1"

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Getting an unexpected moderate LES band here... I don't recall snow being in the forecast for tonight. Instead, it's snowing moderately with a coating on all surfaces - this is more than I had with yesterday's event and 11/7 combined. I haven't seen it snow this heavily since January in NE NJ...

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Ended up better than I thought, measured nearly an inch of snow. I assume higher ratios were involved since liquid equivalent precip didn't reach 0.1", temps were 21-22 degrees throughout the event. Finally got my first inch after 9 traces with 2 of them dustings.

Good for you. Nothing but a few weenie flakes around here but a wintry looking sky for sure. After a break over the next few days or so the pattern is looking once again more winter like. Certainly a different feel this year versus last!

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Good for you. Nothing but a few weenie flakes around here but a wintry looking sky for sure. After a break over the next few days or so the pattern is looking once again more winter like. Certainly a different feel this year versus last!

It wasn't anything major but at least enough to get me back in winter mode. 12z ECM still has the fantasy snowstorm at hour 240, it's going to change again given the time range but perhaps we could see a small window of opportunity in the pattern to get a storm, possibly a snowstorm. The pattern overall excluding the 12/10 ECM storm is still not too impressive but I like our chances of getting into an actual winter pattern much more than last year.

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It wasn't anything major but at least enough to get me back in winter mode. 12z ECM still has the fantasy snowstorm at hour 240, it's going to change again given the time range but perhaps we could see a small window of opportunity in the pattern to get a storm, possibly a snowstorm. The pattern overall excluding the 12/10 ECM storm is still not too impressive but I like our chances of getting into an actual winter pattern much more than last year.

The way I look at it, the pattern looks much better than last year so it's a step in the right direction.

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If the latest models are of any indication, the pattern would be quite favorable after the 15th or so, especially for the Northeast with a gradient type pattern apparently setting up. While the models obviously are going to keep changing back and forth, I have some hope for the 2nd half of the month to finally have more cold and snow chances. At least the models actually have snowstorms in their "fantasy range" this year, especially tonight's 0z CMC/GFS runs; last year barely even had that.

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.Freezing Rain Advisory In Effect Until 11 AM EST This Morning... The National Weather Service In Upton Has Issued A Freezing Rain Advisory...Which Is In Effect Until 11 AM EST This Morning. * Locations...Orange County Ny And Western Passaic County In Nj * Hazard Types...Light Freezing Rain. * Ice Accumulations...A Trace To A Couple Hundredths Of An Inch. * Temperatures...In The Mid To Upper 20S. * Timing...Through 11 AM. * Impacts...There May Be A Light Accumulation Of Ice On Untreated Surfaces Making For Slippery Travel.

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Thanks to IrishRob17 for introducing me to these forums....

Current Wx pattern is rather boring... no prospects of a significant storm... no threat of snow. Anyone want to step up to the plate and predict "if" and "when" this -NAO and -AO finally start to pay some winter dividends (for our area)? It's only Dec 10th and I've gotta keep the faith... I'm even confident of a White Christmas... so what does everyone else think?

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