itsdnice Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Hello everyone.. still without power up here , no running water , what looks like a 200yr old pine crushed my SUV and my girlfriends car , flooded basement , all with a 3 month old baby...this storm was absolutely intense wind wise here more than I expected for being further away. I hope every one else is OK. Data service is spotty here so its been hard to keep up but I could do without another nor easter for a while :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Hello everyone.. still without power up here , no running water , what looks like a 200yr old pine crushed my SUV and my girlfriends car , flooded basement , all with a 3 month old baby...this storm was absolutely intense wind wise here more than I expected for being further away. I hope every one else is OK. Data service is spotty here so its been hard to keep up but I could do without another nor easter for a while :/ Yeah, for me the hardest part is this feeling of detachment from the news. I had a generator to get me through until the power was restored but the cable/ internet hasn't returned. Been using my 4G Droid as a hotspot to watch Hulu Plus so my family doesn't go stir crazy but I can't get any live news. Even went to Walmart to buy a digital antenna since I have elevation here but the only channel I could get was AL Jazeera.......Funny because the first story the Arab commnentator was reading was about Romney being responsible for Malaria in the US. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Anyone else seeing snow? KALB is reporting light snow, I just checked outside and there's flurries falling. I haven't seen any frozen precipitation since 2/10 (in NE NJ) when I had a coating of snow that melted very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Models are cold in the extended.. Winter is coming! Monday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Congrats on your families addition. Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Congrats on your families addition. Enjoy!! Thank you! He is 1 month old today and has already lived through a once in a lifetime event lol.. My other son is gonna be 6 and has a few under his belt smh.. It seems like we are throwing out the phrase "once in a lifetime" quite often these days. Wed thru Thurs is looking more and more wintry. Atleast a snow to rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Thank you! He is 1 month old today and has already lived through a once in a lifetime event lol.. My other son is gonna be 6 and has a few under his belt smh.. It seems like we are throwing out the phrase "once in a lifetime" quite often these days. Wed thru Thurs is looking more and more wintry. Atleast a snow to rain event. My oldest son has picked up my interest in weather. It was cool chatting with him last week about Sandy and what the models were showing. He transferred up to Oswego ( I started having kids young so I'm looking forward to his first hand lake effect reports. As for this week, at the very least we are looking at a few chilly days that could end up bone chilling since its still early in the season. J know I'm not used to it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The storm was mostly a non event up here. Some moderate wind gusts, but only a few twigs down. Off and on showers..maybe .7" total. just a few scattered power outages. Wednesday could be the first accumulating snow. My oldest son has picked up my interest in weather. It was cool chatting with him last week about Sandy and what the models were showing. He transferred up to Oswego ( I started having kids young so I'm looking forward to his first hand lake effect reports. As for this week, at the very least we are looking at a few chilly days that could end up bone chilling since its still early in the season. J know I'm not used to it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We got our power back Friday afternoon and had hot water ready to go for showers not long after, thank goodness! It was so nice to kick back on the couch with a cold beer and watch some tv I work downtown, SOHO, and there is power but no heat there and my fat old man lower back was pretty achy after 8 hours in the chill. Waa waa, I know. Has anybody heard when they're getting the steam up downtown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Those steam and gas lines in NYC must be so old... Maybe some going back to the days of the Consolidated Gas Co., before it merged with Edison Electric. We got our power back Friday afternoon and had hot water ready to go for showers not long after, thank goodness! It was so nice to kick back on the couch with a cold beer and watch some tv I work downtown, SOHO, and there is power but no heat there and my fat old man lower back was pretty achy after 8 hours in the chill. Waa waa, I know. Has anybody heard when they're getting the steam up downtown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If only the CMC was actually a reliable model along the lines of the ECM - the latest 0z run slams the Hudson Valley with at least 7-10 hours of mod-heavy snow followed by light rain and a dry slot. Probably too cold IMO but at least some snow is likely at the start, especially in the higher elevations with accumulations, before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If only the CMC was actually a reliable model along the lines of the ECM - the latest 0z run slams the Hudson Valley with at least 7-10 hours of mod-heavy snow followed by light rain and a dry slot. Probably too cold IMO but at least some snow is likely at the start, especially in the higher elevations with accumulations, before the changeover. Don't know how long you have been in the HV but I have seen this setup a million times. Anyone north of Rockland and usually west of the Hudson will start as frozen and eventually flip to rain. The question is how much frozen.. As of right now for the Mid-Hudson I would have to say 1-3" with the most being in Western sections with elevations >1000'.. Even the GFS here gives us 1-2" before the flip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And just like that the 0z EC gives us a decent snowstorm.. lol smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Don't know how long you have been in the HV but I have seen this setup a million times. Anyone north of Rockland and usually west of the Hudson will start as frozen and eventually flip to rain. The question is how much frozen.. As of right now for the Mid-Hudson I would have to say 1-3" with the most being in Western sections with elevations >1000'.. Even the GFS here gives us 1-2" before the flip.. Just moved here early this fall, so I'm still learning about the average climate and typical trends here. At first 850mb temps weren't cold enough with the rest of the models which is why I suspected the CMC was too cold, but the 0z ECM also trended colder, closer to the CMC, with the 850mb temps and at least on the Wunderground snow map (not the most accurate but it's the only one I have) looks to have 2-3" or so in the valley with higher amounts for the Catskills. I'm expecting to see at least some snow here, not sure yet about the exact accumulations though. If the CMC and ECM are onto something, they would end up on the high end of that 1-3" range, probably a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just moved here early this fall, so I'm still learning about the average climate and typical trends here. At first 850mb temps weren't cold enough with the rest of the models which is why I suspected the CMC was too cold, but the 0z ECM also trended colder, closer to the CMC, with the 850mb temps and at least on the Wunderground snow map (not the most accurate but it's the only one I have) looks to have 2-3" or so in the valley with higher amounts for the Catskills. I'm expecting to see at least some snow here, not sure yet about the exact accumulations though. If the CMC and ECM are onto something, they would end up on the high end of that 1-3" range, probably a bit higher. If you have any questions about local/micro climates in the area we have quite a few posters in this sub forum that can help with that. As for the 0z EC... taken verbatim it shows a high end advisory event for the area. Tomorrows runs should be telling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 If you have any questions about local/micro climates in the area we have quite a few posters in this sub forum that can help with that. As for the 0z EC... taken verbatim it shows a high end advisory event for the area. Tomorrows runs should be telling.. True, we will see what happens today. I thought your initial guess was a good one, at least what I was thinking too. I'm not expecting to need a shovel here, at least that's what I'm thinking this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think most of us see snow out of this, better chance west naturally. However.... like the Halloween storm last year, accumulations around here will likely be elevation dependent. While I would love to be living near High Point NJ for this event, I would take my chances in eastern Orange County at 1K rather than on the valley floor in Port Jervis. This is all assuming the Euro verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z NAM/GFS give immediate area 2-4".. Id still prefer to be >1000' but we will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z Euro continues to advertize the potential for a covering of snow for the area, it is colder than the previous 0Z run, but still looks a little marginal for those outside of higher elevations. I am officially interested now... Let's see if it continues to hold on the current solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I have been watching closely again for another storm to play havoc with school openings. This last week has been interesting since I send school buses to 55 schools in the area and some still don't have power. I am hoping for it to be more of a elevation storm-the last few snow events seemed to have I-84 as the rain/snow line. I can only hope this one is this way-schools have taken too much of a pounding and not even sure how any more days off will affect the rest of the year for a lot of districts. At this point-I hope it only snows on weekends and holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The latest model trends, even the ones that still have impact in the NYC area, look to be enough to keep parts of the Hudson Valley, especially further north closer to Albany, on the drier side, especially with the latest 18z GFS run. As usual, we're once again left to wait until the 0z runs and maybe (hopefully not) tomorrow's 12z runs for a clear consensus, but I suspect the trend towards more separation between the shortwaves could be the reason for this. The solutions from earlier today definitely aren't ruled out, for now I'd go with continuity (as in a few inches of snow/mix) until the 0z runs which should hopefully give a better idea, but IF this trend continues, the Hudson Valley may be spared of the heavier precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The latest model trends, even the ones that still have impact in the NYC area, look to be enough to keep parts of the Hudson Valley, especially further north closer to Albany, on the drier side, especially with the latest 18z GFS run. As usual, we're once again left to wait until the 0z runs and maybe (hopefully not) tomorrow's 12z runs for a clear consensus, but I suspect the trend towards more separation between the shortwaves could be the reason for this. The solutions from earlier today definitely aren't ruled out, for now I'd go with continuity (as in a few inches of snow/mix) until the 0z runs which should hopefully give a better idea, but IF this trend continues, the Hudson Valley may be spared of the heavier precipitation. Dude don't fall into the trap lol.. its the 18z NAM/GFS. As long as the EC is showing something I will prepare accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dude don't fall into the trap lol.. its the 18z NAM/GFS. As long as the EC is showing something I will prepare accordingly. I'm being really cautious with this for now. I plan to make a forecast for it tonight, but if I was to say "we're not getting a storm because <insert model here> doesn't show it" and it still strikes anyways, it would be a huge fail on my part. This trend is also evident on the rest of the western models, however, including the ECM which had a little more separation between the shortwaves with its 12z run. I'm waiting until the 0z runs to make my forecast, and for now not making any final call for this to miss to the east, but I would not be surprised if this does end up being the case. The first (and probably only) analog that comes to my mind is the April Fools 2011 storm - literally an April Fools joke - when the other western, stronger models caved in to the east and weaker NAM in the very short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Practically every model shifted east with the 0z runs except for the 0z NAM; only the 12z ECM is left with any real impact in the Hudson Valley (more than light rain/snow showers) and it's been shifting east too. I've just about given up on anything more than light precip here, although I'll wait until the morning to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Practically every model shifted east with the 0z runs except for the 0z NAM; only the 12z ECM is left with any real impact in the Hudson Valley (more than light rain/snow showers) and it's been shifting east too. I've just about given up on anything more than light precip here, although I'll wait until the morning to be sure. It truly is amazing how for Sandy almost every single storm was locked into a S NJ- C NJ hit for at least 2 days but when it comes to nor easters they can shift soo dramatically within 48 hrs.. Goes to show how much is in play and the amount of ingredients needed for a winter storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Liking my location much better today. Even though it appears the heaviest precip. will focus along the coast, in storms like this there is usually a secondary enhanced band that sets up over Orange Cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Liking my location much better today. Even though it appears the heaviest precip. will focus along the coast, in storms like this there is usually a secondary enhanced band that sets up over Orange Cty. I expect a westward shift today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 I expect a westward shift today.. And that is what the NAM is doing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Fail on the model's part - and on mine as well. I honestly don't remember the last time the models were still shifting back and forth within the 48 hour range. There was the 12/26/10 and 10/29/11 storms but they were settling on a consensus by this point. I guess we're back to the question of how far north the higher snow totals make it into the Hudson Valley. If this trend is correct, southern areas look good, but I'm not so sure about how much makes it into Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Going with my initial call.. 1-3" for the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Here we go again.. Nice little snowstorm for our area on the 12z EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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