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The Hudson Valley Thread


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18z GFS has 850mb winds between 80-90mph come tuesday morning for MGJ.. Areas with elevation should have no problem reaching 40-50 sustained if this was to be believed.. Combine that with 5-10" of rain.. Scary stuff fellas!

Scary indeed! Your up there in elevation. Never thought we would have to worry about this kind of event so soon after last years double whammy.

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A long number of days coming up that could make Irene seem like a walk in the park in terms of wind. Not sure why some in another thread were talking about the ground being dry...not up here, my yard is on the muddy side.

Same here. I was cleaning drains on I87 from exits 8 to 17 ( river to river) and the ditch line has a lot of water running in it now. Trust me there are a lot of dead trees along that Northway and everywhere else too.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

636 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

INCREASING WINDS TODAY WITH TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH WITH THE NE FLOW

INCREASING. HIGHS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NE FLOW WILL BE MORE OF

A DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY AS WELL WITH A CHANCE

OF SHOWERS GROWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY IN LATTER PORTION OF

THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREES WITH LATEST BLEND OF NAM...CMC...ECMWF

AND SREF AND THEIR QPF FIELDS WHICH ARE ALL LESS THAN A TENTH OF

AN INCH.

WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 MPH THIS MORNING AND NEAR 40

MPH TOWARDS SUNSET IN RESPONSE INCREASING SW TO NE ORIENTED

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING VERY STRONG COASTAL STORM.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

IN ACCORDANCE WITH EXPECTED POST TROPICAL TRANSITION OF

SANDY...WIND FIELDS INCREASE SPATIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REALLY

PICKING UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING

TO 40 TO 55 KT. INCREASED WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

MORNING WITH THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT

TIGHTENING. WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 55 TO 60

MPH BY THAT POINT.

THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS

FROM SANDY STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. GENERAL

OPERATION MODELS ARE LINING UP BETTER WITH TIMING...BRINGING THE

STORM IN MONDAY EVENING...AND WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE NJ COAST

INTO NYC. LATEST NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH AND

BRINGING THE STORM IN NEAR SOUTH TO CENTRAL NJ. THE STORM IS

STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TRANSITION INTO POST TROPICAL PRIOR TO

LANDFALL...BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WILL BE A LARGE AND

DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.

BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE

REGION.

IN TERMS OF WINDS...WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM

STRENGTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS

WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF

SANDY...MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR

SPEEDS OF 40-55MPH AND GUSTS 70-80MPH. THESE WINDS COULD BE 10 TO

15 MPH HIGHER IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE

REALIZED...THE COMBINATION OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED

GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE

WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION

TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL

ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES

AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

AS FOR RAINFALL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO

TUESDAY AS THE POWERFUL COASTAL STORM INTERACTS WITH INTENSE

JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING

THIS TIME. THINKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN

ACROSS THE CITY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WITH MORE INTENSE RAIN

EXPECTED FOR A LONGER TIME. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE

ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

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Well, the steady breeze overnight and increasing just a bit this morning has brought down most of the leaves on my hill. I can only hope that's the saving grace and I don't lose too many branches or whole trees tomorrow. I'm going to finish this cup of coffee I'm working on now then head outside to clean up a bit and put some stuff inside.

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A long number of days coming up that could make Irene seem like a walk in the park in terms of wind. Not sure why some in another thread were talking about the ground being dry...not up here, my yard is on the muddy side.

Yeah it's far from dry up here.. It's pretty saturated throughout imby. Another reason why I'm grateful that we separated from the NYC region forum

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I don't see any restrictions on travel in there.

Sunday, October 28, 2012 @ 5:55 pm

ORANGE COUNTY EXECUTIVE DIANA ISSUES STATE OF EMERGENCY IN

PREPARATION FOR HURRICANE SANDY

Schools, Courts, County buildings and personnel effected

(GOSHEN, NY) – Orange County Executive Edward A. Diana signed Executive Order No. 6 issuing a State of Emergency for the County of Orange effective 5:00 pm today in preparation for Hurricane Sandy ordering that all public school districts and all private schools (pre-K through high school) are to be closed, effective immediately. SUNY Orange Campuses in Middletown and Newburgh will be closed effective immediately, as well.

In addition, effective 7:00 am, October 29, 2012 all County buildings are to be closed to the public and all County employees, except those deemed essential personnel are directed not to report to work after 7:00 am on October 29, 2012. This includes County DMV offices in Middletown, Newburgh and Port Jervis, as well as visitation to the County Jail.

All County parks and recreational facilities shall be closed to the public, effective immediately until further notice.

In addition, after consultation with Administrative Judge of the Ninth Judicial District, the Honorable Alan Scheinkman, County, City, Village and Town Courts in Orange County will be closed on Monday, October 29, 2012. The only exception will be Emergency Applications, which will be heard at the Emergency Services Center, 22 Wells Farm Road in Goshen.

These actions have been taken for the safety of Orange County residents due to current weather forecasts predicting the arrival of Hurricane Sandy, with possible and unprecedented sustained and damaging winds and heavy rainfall that pose a real and immediate danger of catastrophic flooding, downed power lines, extended power outages, road closures, and the safety of potable water supplies.

For a copy of the Executive Order, please visit www.orangecountygov.com

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Pretty historic situation. Ever since Katrina '05 especially people have talked about the "worst case scenario" of a strong hurricane heading NE into the Jersey Shore, pushing water into NY. I never thought I would see even a potential for that situation to play out so soon. It could be highly devastating—but, from a meteorology standpoint, we are witnessing one of the most amazing weather events of the modern era in our part of the world. A perfectly structured hurricane came into perfect coinicidence with a perfectly structured upper trough, with the blocking upstream to keep the resulting storm from heading out to sea. I would guess the satellite right now is probably something similar to what '38 would have looked like. Take pics if you see something cool, report back here if possible, and stay safe. This is what we do.

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Very concerned here with the wind as well. Upton mentions gusts to 85mph tonight here, not going to be fun. I'm somewhat protected here, the ridge that NYS 416 runs on is a little over 100 feet higher and to my east. I'm hoping that offers some protection, I'm most exposed here to west to northwest winds.

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Very concerned here with the wind as well. Upton mentions gusts to 85mph tonight here, not going to be fun. I'm somewhat protected here, the ridge that NYS 416 runs on is a little over 100 feet higher and to my east. I'm hoping that offers some protection, I'm most exposed here to west to northwest winds.

Good luck out there Rob. I,m in a lower elevation at 125' with storm king mtn a few miles to the east. Hope it blocks thos strong e/ne gusts later.

Vis loop

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html

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I'm completely exposed to the E - SE. The front of the house is getting buffeted pretty seriously already. Of course we got vinyl siding a few years ago so I can't board up the big window without putting holes in the trim. I have to go out and pick up some stuff anyway so I guess a few rolls of masking tape are going to have to do. I've got branches 20+ feet long already down on the front lawn and all sorts of Halloween decorations have blown into the front of the house from the neighbors that didn't put them away.

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Winds ripping here also. Been up here for 20yrs and never experienced sustained winds like this. Trees are holding up well. I'm shocked we still have power. I have 2 large oaks 20 ft from the house I'm worried about when we get the wind shift to the e/se.

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