xram Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z GFS has 850mb winds between 80-90mph come tuesday morning for MGJ.. Areas with elevation should have no problem reaching 40-50 sustained if this was to be believed.. Combine that with 5-10" of rain.. Scary stuff fellas! Scary indeed! Your up there in elevation. Never thought we would have to worry about this kind of event so soon after last years double whammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 A long number of days coming up that could make Irene seem like a walk in the park in terms of wind. Not sure why some in another thread were talking about the ground being dry...not up here, my yard is on the muddy side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A long number of days coming up that could make Irene seem like a walk in the park in terms of wind. Not sure why some in another thread were talking about the ground being dry...not up here, my yard is on the muddy side. Same here. I was cleaning drains on I87 from exits 8 to 17 ( river to river) and the ditch line has a lot of water running in it now. Trust me there are a lot of dead trees along that Northway and everywhere else too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 636 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- INCREASING WINDS TODAY WITH TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH WITH THE NE FLOW INCREASING. HIGHS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NE FLOW WILL BE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY AS WELL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GROWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY IN LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREES WITH LATEST BLEND OF NAM...CMC...ECMWF AND SREF AND THEIR QPF FIELDS WHICH ARE ALL LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 MPH THIS MORNING AND NEAR 40 MPH TOWARDS SUNSET IN RESPONSE INCREASING SW TO NE ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING VERY STRONG COASTAL STORM. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... IN ACCORDANCE WITH EXPECTED POST TROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY...WIND FIELDS INCREASE SPATIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REALLY PICKING UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT. INCREASED WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 55 TO 60 MPH BY THAT POINT. THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. GENERAL OPERATION MODELS ARE LINING UP BETTER WITH TIMING...BRINGING THE STORM IN MONDAY EVENING...AND WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE NJ COAST INTO NYC. LATEST NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH AND BRINGING THE STORM IN NEAR SOUTH TO CENTRAL NJ. THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TRANSITION INTO POST TROPICAL PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC. BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF WINDS...WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF SANDY...MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF 40-55MPH AND GUSTS 70-80MPH. THESE WINDS COULD BE 10 TO 15 MPH HIGHER IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS. AS FOR RAINFALL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE POWERFUL COASTAL STORM INTERACTS WITH INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THINKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CITY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WITH MORE INTENSE RAIN EXPECTED FOR A LONGER TIME. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 I have a feeling the wind will be the biggest story around here unlike Irene and the flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well, the steady breeze overnight and increasing just a bit this morning has brought down most of the leaves on my hill. I can only hope that's the saving grace and I don't lose too many branches or whole trees tomorrow. I'm going to finish this cup of coffee I'm working on now then head outside to clean up a bit and put some stuff inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 A long number of days coming up that could make Irene seem like a walk in the park in terms of wind. Not sure why some in another thread were talking about the ground being dry...not up here, my yard is on the muddy side. Yeah it's far from dry up here.. It's pretty saturated throughout imby. Another reason why I'm grateful that we separated from the NYC region forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Orange County Executive Diana is drafting a SOE that will shut Orange County down, details to follow once its released as per the OCEM Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't see any restrictions on travel in there. Sunday, October 28, 2012 @ 5:55 pm ORANGE COUNTY EXECUTIVE DIANA ISSUES STATE OF EMERGENCY IN PREPARATION FOR HURRICANE SANDY Schools, Courts, County buildings and personnel effected (GOSHEN, NY) – Orange County Executive Edward A. Diana signed Executive Order No. 6 issuing a State of Emergency for the County of Orange effective 5:00 pm today in preparation for Hurricane Sandy ordering that all public school districts and all private schools (pre-K through high school) are to be closed, effective immediately. SUNY Orange Campuses in Middletown and Newburgh will be closed effective immediately, as well. In addition, effective 7:00 am, October 29, 2012 all County buildings are to be closed to the public and all County employees, except those deemed essential personnel are directed not to report to work after 7:00 am on October 29, 2012. This includes County DMV offices in Middletown, Newburgh and Port Jervis, as well as visitation to the County Jail. All County parks and recreational facilities shall be closed to the public, effective immediately until further notice. In addition, after consultation with Administrative Judge of the Ninth Judicial District, the Honorable Alan Scheinkman, County, City, Village and Town Courts in Orange County will be closed on Monday, October 29, 2012. The only exception will be Emergency Applications, which will be heard at the Emergency Services Center, 22 Wells Farm Road in Goshen. These actions have been taken for the safety of Orange County residents due to current weather forecasts predicting the arrival of Hurricane Sandy, with possible and unprecedented sustained and damaging winds and heavy rainfall that pose a real and immediate danger of catastrophic flooding, downed power lines, extended power outages, road closures, and the safety of potable water supplies. For a copy of the Executive Order, please visit www.orangecountygov.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Very proactive.. I love it! Lets see what this b*&^h Sandy is all about now Btw.. Lets energize this thread tomorrow! If you have generators put them to good use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Pretty historic situation. Ever since Katrina '05 especially people have talked about the "worst case scenario" of a strong hurricane heading NE into the Jersey Shore, pushing water into NY. I never thought I would see even a potential for that situation to play out so soon. It could be highly devastating—but, from a meteorology standpoint, we are witnessing one of the most amazing weather events of the modern era in our part of the world. A perfectly structured hurricane came into perfect coinicidence with a perfectly structured upper trough, with the blocking upstream to keep the resulting storm from heading out to sea. I would guess the satellite right now is probably something similar to what '38 would have looked like. Take pics if you see something cool, report back here if possible, and stay safe. This is what we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Better to be in Albany than NE NJ for this - 55 mph gusts are still serious, but nothing compared to what the NYC area should be seeing out of this. I don't know how this area usually does with storms though, hopefully I don't lose power with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 A little breezy out there this morning. Really worried about the potential wind max tonight. 52/48 29.42 .05" highest gust 25mph, Be safe everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Very concerned here with the wind as well. Upton mentions gusts to 85mph tonight here, not going to be fun. I'm somewhat protected here, the ridge that NYS 416 runs on is a little over 100 feet higher and to my east. I'm hoping that offers some protection, I'm most exposed here to west to northwest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Very concerned here with the wind as well. Upton mentions gusts to 85mph tonight here, not going to be fun. I'm somewhat protected here, the ridge that NYS 416 runs on is a little over 100 feet higher and to my east. I'm hoping that offers some protection, I'm most exposed here to west to northwest winds. Good luck out there Rob. I,m in a lower elevation at 125' with storm king mtn a few miles to the east. Hope it blocks thos strong e/ne gusts later. Vis loop http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm completely exposed to the E - SE. The front of the house is getting buffeted pretty seriously already. Of course we got vinyl siding a few years ago so I can't board up the big window without putting holes in the trim. I have to go out and pick up some stuff anyway so I guess a few rolls of masking tape are going to have to do. I've got branches 20+ feet long already down on the front lawn and all sorts of Halloween decorations have blown into the front of the house from the neighbors that didn't put them away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What are you guys seeing now? Remember I'm exposed, almost at the top of the hill, to the east - It's been blowing easily 20+ up here for quite a while now and the gusts have to be over 40 based on tree damage so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheahunter Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Just returned from high tide at Peekskill. Route 6 closed by Fort Smith due to flooding. https://picasaweb.google.com/104145002472724772294/Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Getting quite nasty here.. Gusting close to 40mph now and rain is steady. Power is maintaining as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 .44" so far. Highest gust was 30 mph. Anemometer is sheltered by trees somewhat. Still have power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 .22 here, max wind was 18mph a minute ago. Considering how sheltered from wind my station currently is that's impressive. So far so good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 .22 here, max wind was 18mph a minute ago. Considering how sheltered from wind my station currently is that's impressive. So far so good here. .20" here with a max gust of 41mph.. Curious to see how bad it gets once Sandy makes landfall around 6pm or so.. Power is flickering but still on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Estimates for our rainfall has really dropped since yesterday. Handheld anemometers are down to $12.50 on ebay. They used to be well over $100. http://www.ebay.com/...r-/110927774220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheahunter Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Power has been out here for a while but is back now. D*mn it's windy out there now! Easily sustained in the high 30's but probably more. Trees are taking a beating up here and I'm more than a bit concerned about two near my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Winds ripping here also. Been up here for 20yrs and never experienced sustained winds like this. Trees are holding up well. I'm shocked we still have power. I have 2 large oaks 20 ft from the house I'm worried about when we get the wind shift to the e/se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Lightning and 60 mph winds here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Lightning and 60 mph winds here now Winds have picked up here too, around the 60's in speed. Lights flickerd a few times but are still on for now. I can see the archs from the wires and transformers popping all around. Stronest winds with this event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Lost power at around 530.. Thank god for generators The winds have been unreal.. Gusting around 60.. 60k ppl without power who have o&r. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Weird as the radar presentation almost seems to me that upon landfall the eye expanded all the way up to Sandy Hook which put the northern semicircle band through NYC and arcing up here....hence the winds. No power here by the way but I flipped the generator on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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