IrishRob17 Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 "Only that day dawns to which we are awake"-Thoreau. That quote runs through my head on glorius mornings such as this one. The sun slowly rising and lighting up the nearing peak foliage (peak in some spots), I can't be the only one totally loving this fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 I'm about 4 miles as the crow flies. I wonder if I get some influence from it as minor it might be. KSWF is 4-5 miles west of the river and had a low of 39 this morning. KMGJ is about 8 miles west of KSWF and had a low of 34. The Hudson isnt always the whole reason for the differences that occur between KSWF and KMGJ but it tends to be a major factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 KSWF is 4-5 miles west of the river and had a low of 39 this morning. KMGJ is about 8 miles west of KSWF and had a low of 34. The Hudson isnt always the whole reason for the differences that occur between KSWF and KMGJ but it tends to be a major factor. Driving north on RT. 32 this morning there was a 5 degree diff. between Highland Mills and the river influenced Vails Gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Driving north on RT. 32 this morning there was a 5 degree diff. between Highland Mills and the river influenced Vails Gate. On Rt 9w near the intersection of Forge Hill elevations are as low as 30'.. Even when you climb up Forge Hill to Rt 94 in Vails Gate elevation is still only 150-200'.. Combine that with the Hudson right alongside and thats a recipe for disaster during marginal events. I have seen it numerous times when I lived there. 35 for a low here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 On Rt 9w near the intersection of Forge Hill elevations are as low as 30'.. Even when you climb up Forge Hill to Rt 94 in Vails Gate elevation is still only 150-200'.. Combine that with the Hudson right alongside and thats a recipe for disaster during marginal events. I have seen it numerous times when I lived there. 35 for a low here.. I had 34 when I left the house at 7am, I'm guessing thats where I bottomed out along with the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 The heaviest band of rain stayed to my west this morning, we'll see how the rest of the afternoon develops. Anyone else having trouble with spiders making a home in their weather station? What a PITA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Looks like this afternoon will be a soaker now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 1.60" of rain so far today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 1.60" of rain so far today.. I figured you got a good dumping this morning being further west and under that band. Theres a good band now set up a bit further east than early this morning but looking to the south it looks like we are all in for a soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I figured you got a good dumping this morning being further west and under that band. Theres a good band now set up a bit further east than early this morning but looking to the south it looks like we are all in for a soaking. Yeah.. 2-3" county wide is a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 1.18 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 1.18 here 2.19" here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I guess we'll all be watching what if anything happens around Halloween again this year, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 This is going to be a tough period of time for the models - could be a potentially historic event, or just a cold front coming through. At least there's finally something interesting to forecast, unlike last year's "winter"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I guess we'll all be watching what if anything happens around Halloween again this year, eh? If the 12z GFS is right we are looking at wind and flooding as the storm stays to our south then retrogrades west into Delmarva. If it goes up to CC and heads inland, all kinds of wintery disasters are on the table depending on the timing with regards to the very cold airmass engulfing the plains and OV during that timeframe. At the very least we could have widespread power outages with subfreezing temps to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 At the very least we could have widespread power outages with subfreezing temps to deal with. I just fired up my generator to make sure she's running fine. I had to do this regardless as I hadn't started it since I needed it last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Pretty amazing how every single global is pretty dramatic and similar this far out.. I hate to say this but almost every option is on the table.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 The Euro doesn't miss a beat with the 12z today...scary stuff being shown for sure next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Destructive winds and flooding or shift everything 100 miles east and it could be blizzard time in the elevated spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Destructive winds and flooding or shift everything 100 miles east and it could be blizzard time in the elevated spots Yeah I was looking at that earlier.. Pick your poison Im sure I know which most would pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Of course when the model guidance is all over the place, the DGEX has to match it with its own fantasy solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I was just thinking about the irony of the first major storm in a year hitting right around the same weekend as the last major storm (unless I'm forgettting one). The pattern changed last season after the storm, will this storm change the pattern back to something much more active? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I was just thinking about the irony of the first major storm in a year hitting hitting right around the same weekend as the last major storm (unless I'm forgettting one). The pattern changed last season after the storm, will this storm change the pattern back to something much more active? Time will tell. Long range models seem to be pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Long range models seem to be pretty cold. Hey, how have you been? One downside of the Regional threads for me is I feel like I've lost touch with some the folks I've chatted with for years. I'm partially to blame for that as well though, I need to get out more, LOL. I've been watching the long range too and like what we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Socked in the clouds once again.. 54 for a high. Highs near 80 down near PHL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not looking good fella's. I have a bad feeling this thread will come alive again with OBS come early next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not looking good fella's. I have a bad feeling this thread will come alive again with OBS come early next week... Not a good feeling here Rob. The ground has a good amount of moisture now along with the vegetation not pulling much now compared with Irene last August with these rain totals from that event, ORANGE COUNTY... TUXEDO PARK 11.48 1000 AM 8/28 PUBLIC HARRIMAN 10.45 300 PM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER CORNWALL-ON-HUDSON 8.15 1120 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER MONTGOMERY 6.65 200 PM 8/28 ASOS NEW WINDSOR 6.25 100 PM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER WARWICK 5.90 650 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEWBURGH 4.85 745 AM 8/28 PUBLIC PORT JERVIS 4.00 630 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER there is the potental to have the same QPF amounts again. We know how the Moodna creek did with that one. http://www.google.co...ex=&startPage=1 Then we have the possible wind issue along with some trees still full of leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Jim Cantore or Frankie McDowell. You decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not looking good fella's. I have a bad feeling this thread will come alive again with OBS come early next week... 18z GFS has 850mb winds between 80-90mph come tuesday morning for MGJ.. Areas with elevation should have no problem reaching 40-50 sustained if this was to be believed.. Combine that with 5-10" of rain.. Scary stuff fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not a good feeling here Rob. The ground has a good amount of moisture now along with the vegetation not pulling much now compared with Irene last August with these rain totals from that event, ORANGE COUNTY... TUXEDO PARK 11.48 1000 AM 8/28 PUBLIC HARRIMAN 10.45 300 PM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER CORNWALL-ON-HUDSON 8.15 1120 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER MONTGOMERY 6.65 200 PM 8/28 ASOS NEW WINDSOR 6.25 100 PM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER WARWICK 5.90 650 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEWBURGH 4.85 745 AM 8/28 PUBLIC PORT JERVIS 4.00 630 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER there is the potental to have the same QPF amounts again. We know how the Moodna creek did with that one. http://www.google.co...ex=&startPage=1 Then we have the possible wind issue along with some trees still full of leaves. Not looking good fella's. I have a bad feeling this thread will come alive again with OBS come early next week... Not looking good at all. Getting very worried about the winds. If Sandy takes the path south of us......our trees are not accustomed to strong east/southeast directions. This will surely topple many more trees than a NW direction. Lets hope for a path that's to the east or well south of us.....which looks like it is trending at the moment. Of course there is the hydro issue also. I just finished getting the last of my gas storage containers filled for the generator.....should be good for 6 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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