West Point, NY Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 GFS, I dare say it, is getting close to having snow in the air Sunday morning in elevated locations in PA/NY. Will be a race between the cold air pouring in and precip ending around here. Earliest I ever saw flakes was as a kid in H.S. around 10/10/80 I believe, when it started to snow mid afternoon on Staten Island and actually coated grassy surfaces. Unfathomable to think that could occur these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 How is everyone’s foliage looking? I was looking around on the drive into work today and I sense that the trees are really about to pop out into some great colors soon. If the early trees that have turned are any indication, we are in for a great foliage season which will help ease the pain of last year’s debacle. The poison ivy looks great with it's deep reds now, I wonder how many people pick those leaves to press or take home, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 How is everyone’s foliage looking? I was looking around on the drive into work today and I sense that the trees are really about to pop out into some great colors soon. If the early trees that have turned are any indication, we are in for a great foliage season which will help ease the pain of last year’s debacle. The poison ivy looks great with it's deep reds now, I wonder how many people pick those leaves to press or take home, LOL. Hey Rob, Over here on the east side at lower elevations, there are a few maples starting to turn. Mostly every thing is green with a few hints here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Hey Rob, Over here on the east side at lower elevations, there are a few maples starting to turn. Mostly every thing is green with a few hints here and there. It's still mostly green around me too, but it's getting real close. In other news, I was looking at my summer stats and I recorded 28 days with a high temp of at least 90 (that total includes 1 day in both April and September and 2 in May). That's the most I've recorded IMBY since I moved in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 A rather juicy radar for the less than a tenth of an inch QPF for Orange Cty. this afternoon. Raining pretty hard here for the better part of an hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 So I was wondering .. should we be paying attention to the GFS for this up coming Sunday? Flakes possible or a little more? I do realize its very early in the season and it's the GFS 6 days out but figured i'd throw it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 So I was wondering .. should we be paying attention to the GFS for this up coming Sunday? Flakes possible or a little more? I do realize its very early in the season and it's the GFS 6 days out but figured i'd throw it out there. If the GFS has any idea (it doesn't for todays event) then you have the best shot of the local folks of seeing something up there. I think that we'll all be watching this as the week develops but I for one would rather not see any flakes just yet although I welcome the cooler temps heading our way on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 So I was wondering .. should we be paying attention to the GFS for this up coming Sunday? Flakes possible or a little more? I do realize its very early in the season and it's the GFS 6 days out but figured i'd throw it out there. Whats your elevation up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 GFS, I dare say it, is getting close to having snow in the air Sunday morning in elevated locations in PA/NY. Will be a race between the cold air pouring in and precip ending around here. Earliest I ever saw flakes was as a kid in H.S. around 10/10/80 I believe, when it started to snow mid afternoon on Staten Island and actually coated grassy surfaces. Unfathomable to think that could occur these days 12z GFS has surface temps around 40 with 850 temps around +2.. Its still 5 days out but I wouldn't bet on anything else other than some cold rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 12z GFS has surface temps around 40 with 850 temps around +2.. Its still 5 days out but I wouldn't bet on anything else other than some cold rain.. Trending colder though. I would think places like High Point have a decent shot to flip over Sunday AM. Not really expecting anything in the valley but the GFS 6z clown map did show accumulating snow across the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Whats your elevation up there? per EarthTools .. 1433.7ft @ my home. I live next to Holiday mountain ski and fun park if you are familiar with the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 per EarthTools .. 1433.7ft @ my home. I live next to Holiday mountain ski and fun park if you are familiar with the area. Nice elevation! Whats your average up there? 70-75"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 per EarthTools .. 1433.7ft @ my home. I live next to Holiday mountain ski and fun park if you are familiar with the area. You should see snow Sunday if the GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 59.8/58 .70" for the day so far. Since were talking elevations,,,,how about we post some of ours. 360' per EarthTools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 59.8/58 .70" for the day so far. Since were talking elevations,,,,how about we post some of ours. 360' per EarthTools. 385, using various websites and GPS's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 850' here... A quick drive to my west jumps up to 1300' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Earthtools & http://www.gpsies.com/coordinate.do are pretty accurate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Trending colder though. I would think places like High Point have a decent shot to flip over Sunday AM. Not really expecting anything in the valley but the GFS 6z clown map did show accumulating snow across the county. 6z GFS Clown Map.. 12z GFS Clown Map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 6z GFS Clown Map.. 12z GFS Clown Map.. If you zoom in on the 6z, OC is shaded for an inch. 1032' here. Bust of a forecast today with less than 1/10" QPF. So far, anywhere from .5"- 1.5" across the county depending where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 59/58 1.29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Nice elevation! Whats your average up there? 70-75"? Well..last winter was my first up here and to be honest I think you did better in Middletown than we did up this way..i'm waiting for my first epic winter here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Well..last winter was my first up here and to be honest I think you did better in Middletown than we did up this way..i'm waiting for my first epic winter here . And we had a horrible winter down here lol.. My avg on this side is roughly 55" or so.. So I would think your close to 70". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 58/57 1.08" of rain for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 And we had a horrible winter down here lol.. My avg on this side is roughly 55" or so.. So I would think your close to 70". It's funny because Middletown is what 20 mins from here but its all about the elevation ..I work also in RH and MT ...I've always been amazed when driving up 17 and its raining until you get to Wurtsboro and it turns into a crazy snow storm lol .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 It's funny because Middletown is what 20 mins from here but its all about the elevation ..I work also in RH and MT ...I've always been amazed when driving up 17 and its raining until you get to Wurtsboro and it turns into a crazy snow storm lol .. Yeah Im not very far from you BUT like you said its all about elevation. The avg elevation for Middletown is roughly 500' but a quick drive to the north or west and your elevation doubles in a heartbeat. I have a Middletown address but within walking distance to Greenville. Mountain rd which is about 2 miles to my west rides alongside the Shawangunk Ridge and avg elevation on that road is about 1100' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 The latest GFS keeps the Sunday storm south of Albany although there's still some rain further south in the NYC area. Hard to tell with the rest of the models still further inland while the GFS has been trending SE, but I wouldn't be surprised if a more suppressed solution than at least some of the models (ECM) verifies. EDIT: 0z model guidance not helping... GFS goes suppressed, ECM goes even stronger. Has a lot of rain with a stronger low and the wunderground maps show high elevation snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Anyone have any new thoughts for Sunday/Monday in our areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Anyone have any new thoughts for Sunday/Monday in our areas? Pretty much a cold rain for everyone.. You may see some flakes but this time of year we need some serious cold to battle that boundary layer. If I had to guess I would say anyone above 1500' has a shot at least seeing some frozen precip mixed in. 850 temps are cold enough but surface temps are still in the Low to Mid 40's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 4, 2012 Author Share Posted October 4, 2012 Pretty much a cold rain for everyone.. You may see some flakes but this time of year we need some serious cold to battle that boundary layer. If I had to guess I would say anyone above 1500' has a shot at least seeing some frozen precip mixed in. 850 temps are cold enough but surface temps are still in the Mid 40's.. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Anyone have any new thoughts for Sunday/Monday in our areas? Pretty much what snywx said. Looks like a cold rain (highs in 40s, lows in 30s), 850mb temps are below freezing but the boundary layer is warm and without a strong low pressure/heavy QPF, any flakes will be limited to the higher elevations. After last October though I wouldn't want any snow this early in the season again, I'd rather wait until November or early December for the snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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