TJay Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 This is just about perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 LOL at the 12z GFS......It is gonna bust in the HV from less than 48 hrs. out with this 2 day 3"+ tropical deluge, and now wants to throw almost a foot of QPF in the next couple of weeks. On a side note, Central/Southern NJ are getting the rain totals expected here. 78/73 and oppressively disgusting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Forecast was for rain today... not only did it not rain during the day, but the sun came out at times. Still looks wet tonight though with the additional storms from the west/SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Forecast was for rain today... not only did it not rain during the day, but the sun came out at times. Still looks wet tonight though with the additional storms from the west/SW. Yeah, but notice how the storms over NJ/EPA have regenerated down there all day and weakened as they moved NE. Now we have lost the heating of the day, I bet most places in SE NY wind up with around half inch for the 2 day period. Considering Upton and HPC both had the region getting 3+ inches as late as yeaterday, this was a big bust. Gotta watch that southern section of Issac that is sinking back into the Gulf. That could get it's act together and creep up the Eastern Seaboard this weekend giving us the rain we were supposed to have today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Yeah, but notice how the storms over NJ/EPA have regenerated down there all day and weakened as they moved NE. Now we have lost the heating of the day, I bet most places in SE NY wind up with around half inch for the 2 day period. Considering Upton and HPC both had the region getting 3+ inches as late as yeaterday, this was a big bust. Gotta watch that southern section of Issac that is sinking back into the Gulf. That could get it's act together and creep up the Eastern Seaboard this weekend giving us the rain we were supposed to have today. It may bust but it also looks like we have some training cells heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 It may bust but it also looks like we have some training cells heading our way. Yeah, for a 15 mile wide strip running from Port Jervis to Newburgh. If these storms (with a couple of Tornado Warnings in NW NJ) hold together as they head NE, places in between those two cities may reach the excessive rates predicted. For most of us .........meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Yeah, but notice how the storms over NJ/EPA have regenerated down there all day and weakened as they moved NE. Now we have lost the heating of the day, I bet most places in SE NY wind up with around half inch for the 2 day period. Considering Upton and HPC both had the region getting 3+ inches as late as yeaterday, this was a big bust. Gotta watch that southern section of Issac that is sinking back into the Gulf. That could get it's act together and creep up the Eastern Seaboard this weekend giving us the rain we were supposed to have today. The rain in central NY is making some eastward progress although it's weakening, and should probably produce some light rain here soon, with heavier rain further south in the Hudson Valley from the NE PA storms. This definitely doesn't have the look of a widespread 3+ inch producer though, that part of the forecast was a bust. The cold front for the weekend doesn't look to have the same amount of moisture/high precipitable water values that the current moisture from Isaac contains, perhaps there could be a risk of moderate/heavy rain but I doubt any 3+ inches from that one as well. There's still the usual model differences and time for some changes but the general model consensus for the weekend setup is for a relatively strong trough swinging through before picking Leslie up into eastern Canada as a strong extratropical cyclone, with chilly temps possibly the bigger story around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 House was rocking from 12-1:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 That line I was looking at last night went mostly to my south, I only picked up .43" from that but storm total as of this morning is at 1.04" with rain faling again. I agree, I don't see any widespread 3" amounts storm total, I was just happy to get over an inch because I wasn't sure I'd get even that after looking at the radar last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 House was rocking from 12-1:30 am. My house is rocking now, wow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Most of the rain stayed to my north and south, Albany airport picked up 0.13", mostly sunny here now. Nothing even close to 2-3+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 My house is rocking now, wow, So is mine now. This is one of the loudest morning storms I've seen in years. Frequent lightning.....wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Easily the best storm I've been in this summer. It is too dangerous to sit on my porch to watch. Very eerie, dark as night out and fire sirens going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Easily the best storm I've been in this summer. It is too dangerous to sit on my porch to watch. Very eerie, dark as night out and fire sirens going off. Ditto here. A shake, rattle and roll morning here..95" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 I had 1.35 for Tue ngiht into Wed. Todays 12Z NAM came in rather juicy spitting out 2.43" over the weekend at KMGJ. We'll see if the trend continues with the rest of the 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 The GFS went from .41 on the 0z to .96 on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 So what does everyone here think about this upcoming winter for the HV? Another fringe winter? Dud? Classic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 It's gotta be better than last year....right? I think some expectations may be a little too high but I hope to be wrong on that. Total guess is a slow start to winter with above normal temps still around at the start and then maybe a transition into an average winter. (please be wrong, please be wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Line of heavy rain and thunderstorms expected for Saturday afternoon/evening. Not sure about the severe weather potential up here but at least some strong/possibly severe storms look likely with the cold front. Heavy rain a reasonable possibility with PW values approaching 2". Much cooler temps will come in behind the front, looks like widespread lows in the 40s and a few 30s in the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 So what does everyone here think about this upcoming winter for the HV? Another fringe winter? Dud? Classic? Winter starts in November this year, classic Jan thaw and comes back with a vengence in February. Plenty of snow for all N&W of the Tappan Zee (mixing will cut down S & E). Chipmunks and squirrels going absolutely nuts (no pun intended, but funny anyway) the past week. It's been like a minefield here going around them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Winter starts in November this year, classic Jan thaw and comes back with a vengence in February. Plenty of snow for all N&W of the Tappan Zee (mixing will cut down S & E). Chipmunks and squirrels going absolutely nuts (no pun intended, but funny anyway) the past week. It's been like a minefield here going around them. Its been years since we've seen a winter like that and it would be welcomed with open arms in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Saturday afternoon could get interesting... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN MD/NRN DE...NWD INTO UPSTATE NY/VT/NH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO WRN ME... ...DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT WILL INDUCE A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALL INDICATIONS FAVOR A SQUALL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AT SUNRISE FROM SRN ONTARIO SWD ACROSS OH...TRAILING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WRN NY/PA...ESPECIALLY BY 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM. ALTHOUGH FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST ATTM WITH UPPER 60S-70F SFC DEW POINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT SPREAD NWD ACROSS PA/NJ INTO UPSTATE NY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER TO SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT EJECTS ACROSS WRN PA TO SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70KT OVER UPSTATE NY BY 09/00Z. WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SERN ONTARIO FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN NJ NWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND WITH CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRIMARY SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON TRAILING SWWD INTO CNTRL VA BY 09/00Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Saturday afternoon could get interesting... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN MD/NRN DE...NWD INTO UPSTATE NY/VT/NH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO WRN ME... ...DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT WILL INDUCE A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALL INDICATIONS FAVOR A SQUALL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AT SUNRISE FROM SRN ONTARIO SWD ACROSS OH...TRAILING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WRN NY/PA...ESPECIALLY BY 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM. ALTHOUGH FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST ATTM WITH UPPER 60S-70F SFC DEW POINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT SPREAD NWD ACROSS PA/NJ INTO UPSTATE NY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER TO SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT EJECTS ACROSS WRN PA TO SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70KT OVER UPSTATE NY BY 09/00Z. WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SERN ONTARIO FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN NJ NWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND WITH CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRIMARY SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON TRAILING SWWD INTO CNTRL VA BY 09/00Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z. Hey Rob, Could get a bit roudy around here today. Watch out for those descrete cells ahead of the front later. We'll see if SPC keeps us in the 10% Tor risk in their next update at 1300z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Wow.............These rogue storms in NJ this morning are moving North faster than a state trooper driving Jon Corzine up the Turnpike..............Gonna be a fun day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yeah, I was surprised to see stuff already popping, As HV pointed out its those cells out in front to really keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Downpours but no thunder with the first batch....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Lets see what happens in the next 2 hrs.. Tornados? Hail? Wind? We shall find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Discreet cells are really popping up in E PA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Dews in the mid 70s, juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The front is ripping across PA and the temp and humidity plunge right behind it. I don't see why they extend the severe weather until late evening and rain in general until the wee hrs. of the morning. The severe weather is out of here by 6 and the post frontal rain done before the watch expires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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