Juliancolton Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 These kinds of forecasts (especially from the SPC) suggest a very notable event tomorrow. I have all my camera equipment charged up and ready to go... feeling good about seeing something worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.nyalert.gov/Public/News/AllHazPRView.aspx?notID=3674081&refer=HOME&source=WEB&messageID=AghxO4T6A& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 After picking up .16 at home this morning now there are breaks of hazy sun making through from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 KMGJ is down again or so it seems, no report since 6:54am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 KMGJ is down again or so it seems, no report since 6:54am At one point in the past few days it was showing a dewpoint of 25, maybe they are working on it. Quite the change in air mass since even earlier this morning. Things are starting to pop well off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 How far north the severe threat reaches really depends upon how far north the high CAPE, right theta-e airmass makes it. Probably going to be a particularly sharp north-south cutoff between widespread severe reports and nothing. Need to see how the situation evolves throughout the day, but it's looking right now that that cutoff will be just south of Albany. I'm not seeing much backing of the winds. There is enough mid-level speed shear for a small tornado threat to exist, but certainly not enough LL helicitiy for anything significant, unless perhaps we get some channeling up the Hudson Valley. Time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 How far north the severe threat reaches really depends upon how far north the high CAPE, right theta-e airmass makes it. Probably going to be a particularly sharp north-south cutoff between widespread severe reports and nothing. Need to see how the situation evolves throughout the day, but it's looking right now that that cutoff will be just south of Albany. I'm not seeing much backing of the winds. There is enough mid-level speed shear for a small tornado threat to exist, but certainly not enough LL helicitiy for anything significant, unless perhaps we get some channeling up the Hudson Valley. Time will tell! Tornado Watch going up for the counties just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHERN VERMONT EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA NEW YORK TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524... DISCUSSION...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE CLUSTER OF ONGOING STORMS OVER WESTERN NY/PA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY FORM ON/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HART Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind High Moderate Severe Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 87/73 and heating up.. Anyone north of the NY/NJ border is game for something potentially severe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 wow i'm in the watch area..gonna be interesting around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 88/75 now.. Its starting to bake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 88/75 now.. Its starting to bake The warm front is working through the area, it seems like you can see it on the satellite, kinds cool to watch it race northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GROTON CONNECTICUT TO 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524...WW 525...WW 526... DISCUSSION...A LINE OF FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL PA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH FAST LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND IN THE MORE INTENSE BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK WESTCHESTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those storms along the line near BGM & the NY/PA border look to make a direct impact in our area.. Might get a little dicey in the next 2 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those storms along the line near BGM & the NY/PA border look to make a direct impact in our area.. Might get a little dicey in the next 2 hrs.. Warnings popping up all over the place now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Everyone in Orange County should be bracing for impact NOW!! This looks legit and will effect at least the northern half of the county.. Should be here within the next 45 mins.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Everyone in Orange County should be bracing for impact NOW!! This looks legit and will effect at least the northern half of the county.. Should be here within the next 45 mins.. yes, concerning to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Constant thunder in the distance now.. Extremely dark to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is a dangerous situation!. Around 80MPH winds inside the arrow point of the storm line in Sullivan heading for Orange Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 out flow just blew in, trees bent sideways. I have never heard so much thunder in the distanse before Good Luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 out flow just blew in, trees bent sideways. I have never heard so much thunder in the distanse before Good Luck to all Likewise Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ughhh.. Lost power here. Posting from my cell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well that was pretty intense up here in Sullivan ..all I can say is wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sounds like Montgomery and Maybrook got nailed, lots of calls on the scanner on going. Thanks for the heads up Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That was impressive amounts of lightening and thunder. Winds here were insane for about 5 minutes but not as bad as I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Was not too bad here in New Windsor. Had great light show and around 15 minn of heavy rain. Est. wind gust to around 40. No hail. Lost power for a few seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Power is back up now... Overall not too bad. bark was worse than the bite ( as usual) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Overall not too bad. bark was worse than the bite ( as usual) Thankfully agree, at least for IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah no damage here thankfully. I hate wind events with owning a house surrounded by big trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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