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Upstate NY Synoptic Event jan 20-22


wolfie09

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Check out snowband about to cross Buffalo. Lake enhanced band. Looks to be dropping 2-3 inches per hour. Would be beautiful if that parked itself over my house for a few hours! =P

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

That sure is one spectacular band, I'm pretty sure it will conk out long before it slips through Rochester. These are the days I miss Buffalo.

Here is a nice GIF to stick in this thread for Posterity,

post-912-0-63096700-1327006418.gif

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Its very funny you say that...without looking at the NAM I was about to post that its just about time for an off-hour NAM run to bring significant precip back up into our area. :lol:

God bless the 18z NAM...did everything it could to get 0.3-0.4" back up to around ALB for the Saturday event. If only it wasn't the 18z NAM.

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Its very funny you say that...without looking at the NAM I was about to post that its just about time for an off-hour NAM run to bring significant precip back up into our area. :lol:

It always too amped or too juicy...but we always look at it with hope that maybe, just maybe, this is the time the blind squirrel finds the nut. :P

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Well the GFS has bumped north a little also I think. Got the .25 line to us again.... GFS qpf usually being a bit more realistic ...that could mean 3 to 4 inches which would be a veritable blizzard this season.

BTW...sad state of affairs once east of exit 25 on the Thruway. All the snow vanishes.... I drove in yesterday and noted that. We still have around 4 to 6 inches of concrete on the ground and my driveway is a pure skating rink, Had to use two bags of sand to try to make it navigable.

It always too amped or too juicy...but we always look at it with hope that maybe, just maybe, this is the time the blind squirrel finds the nut. :P

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kalb

SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATE FOR A AWHILE FROM JUST SOUTH OF

ALBANY...BUT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP

PREVENT HEAVIER AMOUNTS. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS LOOK A LITTLE HIGHER

THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 13:1...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THAT SAID...THE 18Z NAM CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF

AGAIN AND WOULD IMPLY ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT UP TO THE CAPITAL

DISTRICT. FOR NOW THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS

THINKING OF A 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL GREATER CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK

VALLEY...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. FURTHER

SOUTH...4-6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MUCH OF

THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY

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...INTENSE BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE

BUFFALO METRO AREA...

A BAND OF VERY HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE

SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA THROUGH 6 PM...AND ALSO

MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...ORLEANS COUNTY AND

GENESEE COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE BEING

EXPERIENCED WITHIN THIS BAND.

THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE

NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL

FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY

DIFFICULT AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY WILL RAPIDLY

IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA

BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM AS THE BAND PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

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Lack of any blocking and I thought it would trend north, but it's such a piss poor weak s/w.... Still hope for some trend, but who knows. 0Z models say maybe a couple inches for us.....

0Z NAM looks like a good hit for central PA to Jersey. Just too flat and supressed to get the good stuff up this way. Still time for a north trend :thumbsup:

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Lack of any blocking and I thought it would trend north, but it's such a piss poor weak s/w.... Still hope for some trend, but who knows. 0Z models say maybe a couple inches for us.....

Could be down to the wire. I'd be thrilled if we could muster 3"...actually 3.2" to be exact. Would make it my biggest snow of the year. How pathetic!

What did u manage last night in the hills. Only 0.25" here...most of which came with the initial burst before 9pm.

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Same... virtually a non event... Being north of the Catskills may have dried up what little there was here with the southerly winds.

NAM around .25" for tomorrow....

Could be down to the wire. I'd be thrilled if we could muster 3"...actually 3.2" to be exact. Would make it my biggest snow of the year. How pathetic!

What did u manage last night in the hills. Only 0.25" here...most of which came with the initial burst before 9pm.

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