wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Its not looking like a blockbuster storm but there is the potential for a couple/several inches of snow during this time frame.. 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 18z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW nam hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Quick glance at the 0Z ECMWF shows a nice classic overunner event Friday night into Saturday. Heaviest would be the I-86 corridor. > 5" up to the I-90 corridor. More modest amounts as the progress north of there. Low exits the northern NJ coast Saturday. Then another trough digs in the Northeast days 6-8 with rain to snow anafrontal fashion and a major coastal low forming in time to dump on New England. The seesaw winter of 2011-12 continues, but lots of wx intrigue. FWIW nam hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Quick glance at the 0Z ECMWF shows a nice classic overunner event Friday night into Saturday. Heaviest would be the I-86 corridor. > 5" up to the I-90 corridor. More modest amounts as the progress north of there. Low exits the northern NJ coast Saturday. Then another trough digs in the Northeast days 6-8 with rain to snow anafrontal fashion and a major coastal low forming in time to dump on New England. The seesaw winter of 2011-12 continues, but lots of wx intrigue. Euro seems to be most aggressive with the Saturday event right now...suggests a solid 3-6" event with maybe some 6+ amounts in the high terrain. GFS/Canadian a bit more modest, but still a decent 2-4" event. NAM looks warm, but it is 84 hours out. But see-saw is right. Definitely not anyone's preferred winter pattern...but given how December went...as long as it keeps things interesting and give us some occasional shots at snowfall, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Surprised there's not more interest in this given how inactive this winter has been. Most places look good for 1-2" tomorrow night (likely <1" here in the valley)...then models painting the picture of a decent 2-4" snowfall on Saturday...potentially more in a few spots. 18z NAM never disappoints on QPF, 0.4-0.5" up to ALB for the Saturday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 KBUF is calling for 1-2 inches from the cold front followed by a few more inches with "Heavy" but brief LES folllowing the passage of the front. Latest Hazardous weather outlook. A BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER METRO BUFFALO AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...PRODUCING A VERY DIFFICULT AFTERNOON DRIVE. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. The storm on Friday looks quite good for this area as well, some of the local mets are calling for 5-7 inches already around here. Have to wait and see I guess.... Quite interesting, noticed this at the end of the NWS discussion. Truly shows you how unstable models have been this year, they can barely predict temperature beyond 7 days... THE MAJOR WARM-UP THAT HAD BEEN ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NO LONGER...WITH BOTH MODELS BACKING OFF AND RESTRICTING THE WARM AIR TO JUST MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY STILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 THE MAJOR WARM-UP THAT HAD BEEN ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NO LONGER...WITH BOTH MODELS BACKING OFF AND RESTRICTING THE WARM AIR TO JUST MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY STILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. I find this quite interesting, since it seemed like a "lock" just a couple days ago that the entire northeast was in for a mega torch for at least a few days next week. Definitely nice to see things trend in the cooler direction for a change this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS QPF I'm down with that...can we lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm down with that...can we lock it in? If Toronto can squeeze 4" out of this, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 KBGM EVENT SHD BE BRIEF HWVR AS FLOW VEERS AHD OF SAT/S SYSTEM. FARENUF OUT WHERE THE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN...SO PCPN TYPE IN QUESTION OVER NE PA. MODEL QPF HAS INCRSD AND USING STANDARD SNOW/WATER RATIOS...DEFINITE PSPBLTY OF A DECENT WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW...WITH CRNT BEST LOCATION FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NY/PA BRDR INTO THE WRN CATS. HARD TO BELIEVE BUT THIS WLD REALLY BE THE FIRST TRUE STORM OF THE SEASON...IF YOU FORGET OCT/S EVENT. NAM IS CRNTLY THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE GFS THE COLDEST. COMPROMISE COMES FROM THE EURO WHICH WLD LIKELY BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT NORTH OF THE WYOMING VLY. HAVE INCLUDED THE PSBLTY OF A MIX IN THE SOUTH...OTRW KEPT THE FCST ALL SNOW ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 KALB snow map.. This makes no sense to me unless this is just for fri/sat storm..(nws calling for 1-3" just with the clipper imby ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Must be the Fri/Sat storm. I'm surprised they would put out an accumulation map so far in advance. KALB snow map.. This makes no sense to me unless this is just for fri/sat storm..(nws calling for 1-3" just with the clipper imby ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 KALB clipper snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hpc day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Clippers like the one Thu night almost always underperform in the Hudson Valley. I'm expecting a dusting down here and an inch in the Helderbergs. Sat looks more interesting. I'm expecting 2-4" in the valley right now and 3-5" in the hills. 0Z NAM puts out .46" at Alb with probably at least 12 to 1 ratio's, but I'm feeling conservative for now..... although isentropic lift looks impressive. Wave won't really be over rawindsonde network until Thu night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm not feeling optimistic about this at all for Toronto. The trend is not my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Now the 0Z GFS crushes Saturday's system and lowered qpf in ALB to .15 or lower. Probably typical GFS nonsense ...I won't buy that until the Euro wavers. It has been very consistent. Clippers like the one Thu night almost always underperform in the Hudson Valley. I'm expecting a dusting down here and an inch in the Helderbergs. Sat looks more interesting. I'm expecting 2-4" in the valley right now and 3-5" in the hills. 0Z NAM puts out .46" at Alb with probably at least 12 to 1 ratio's, but I'm feeling conservative for now..... although isentropic lift looks impressive. Wave won't really be over rawindsonde network until Thu night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Clippers like the one Thu night almost always underperform in the Hudson Valley. I'm expecting a dusting down here and an inch in the Helderbergs. Sat looks more interesting. I'm expecting 2-4" in the valley right now and 3-5" in the hills. 0Z NAM puts out .46" at Alb with probably at least 12 to 1 ratio's, but I'm feeling conservative for now..... although isentropic lift looks impressive. Wave won't really be over rawindsonde network until Thu night. I still think tomorrow night could produce an inch even in the valley...but it could be hit or miss. I'd say 1-2" in the high terrain though...spot 3" amounts. As for Saturday I agree with a conservative outlook for now. But these SW flow events can be under forecasted by models in the medium and long range...they often overperform with respect to 72-84 hr forecasts. As long as this thing doesn't trend south...or suddenly become a torch in the next few model cycles...it should be safe to bump up those amounts. I think whoever jackpots on this thing...could easily be in the 6-10" range when all is said and done...with the upper end of that range needing to be aided by some elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Now the 0Z GFS crushes Saturday's system and lowered qpf in ALB to .15 or lower. Probably typical GFS nonsense ...I won't buy that until the Euro wavers. It has been very consistent. The plus side with the 0z GFS being further south is that it has much colder air than the NAM with 850 mb temperatures around -10C, meaning that snow ratios are going to be fairly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The plus side with the 0z GFS being further south is that it has much colder air than the NAM with 850 mb temperatures around -10C, meaning that snow ratios are going to be fairly high. Do you think Toronto will see anything, even if it's just 2-3"? High snow ratios could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Now the 0Z GFS crushes Saturday's system and lowered qpf in ALB to .15 or lower. Probably typical GFS nonsense ...I won't buy that until the Euro wavers. It has been very consistent. Ukmet is south as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 everything went south overnight...boo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 everything went south overnight...boo! Can't trust them until 1-2 days before this year. Who knows it may push north like every other system did this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Not bad. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.943355168255806&lon=-78.77334594726562&site=buf&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Monday torch. Eek. Not bad. http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Monday torch. Eek. I wouldnt consider Monday a torch. A brief warm up day. Earlier in the week they were saying mid 50s here Sunday through Tuesday now it looks like 1 day of mid 40's on just Monday. I'll take that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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