usedtobe Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't think I belong, I've hardly had any articles this year. It's hard to be influential when you don't have anything to say. Jason and the regulars deserve the credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't think I belong, I've hardly had any articles this year. It's hard to be influential when you don't have anything to say. Jason and the regulars deserve the credit. You are selling yourself short, Wes. You are so powerful you keep it from snowing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't think I belong, I've hardly had any articles this year. It's hard to be influential when you don't have anything to say. Jason and the regulars deserve the credit. Leesburg only orders bread and milk based on your forecasts so I'd say you have some pull. And something my work impressed on us from the start is it is quality over quantity so just know that your few articles carry a lot of weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Leesburg only orders bread and milk based on your forecasts so I'd say you have some pull. And something my work impressed on us from the start is it is quality over quantity so just know that your few articles carry a lot of weight. Thanks....I might get to write a winter weather article tomorrow on the weekend threat. Then I'll feel powerful like Ian and Scuddz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thanks....I might get to write a winter weather article tomorrow on the weekend threat. Then I'll feel powerful like Ian and Scuddz. I doubt you'll ever be as powerful as Scuddz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I doubt you'll ever be as powerful as Scuddz I mean, who is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I doubt you'll ever be as powerful as Scuddz If it wasn't for him you all would be #39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I doubt you'll ever be as powerful as Scuddz I mean, who is? Mere mortals.... The power and scope of my Sunday forecast is UNBOUNDED!! even though nobody reads it because they're not at work killing time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Mere mortals.... The power and scope of my Sunday forecast is UNBOUNDED!! even though nobody reads it because they're not at work killing time... but they're probably reading while waiting to get on a segment of Inside Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 im not an enso expert but outside some oddities it seems like a nina to me--or at least not as much "not a nina" as has been the story from a number of folks. fast flow.. warm to cold to warm etc. it has been fairly wet, sure. some of the hallmarks of Nina have definitely been there....progressive flow, volatile temp swings...warm/wet, cold/dry...storm track to our west, southeast ridge, +EPO....As far as the hemispheric pattern I think we are seeing a more nina like pattern now with the -PNA trough and the big block west of AK.....I think Wes may have mentioned the PNA has actually been slightly positive so far....and you usually get a +height anomaly over the Aleutians which we are getting now but haven't so far this winter in the means...the CONUS temp distribution kind of looks Nino-ish with the warmest anomalies in the upper plains/midwest and a bit "cooler" in the deep south/florida, but really overall, the entire country has been warm......I think it has been a good example that not all ninas are the same, but also that when Nina is weak/moderate which it is, it can be overwhelmed/mitigated by other factors....I think the +AO has been the big story this winter and the biggest factor.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 In case you didn't read this in the other thread, here is zwyts take on next weeks torch: If you wish to continue to talk about how the torch isn't going to be "that much" then you can troll zwyts too while you are at it. His thoughts are realistic and on par with what I have seen from those who are forecasting the torch. If you look at the context of the discussion I was really speaking to how a Nina torch usually works and referring more to the sequence of temps than the actual temps, hence the term "loosely"....Adam and others have mentioned big temp anomalies keep showing up in the 5 day means...He specifically mentioned +10 to +14 as something he thought would happen....My examples in the 1st post of the thread show to get into the top echelon of torches on the maxes over a 10 day period we would need +13 to +15 departures over the period, hence my example....I am not forecasting a 10 day torch....This was all in the context of the thread.. As far as the actual "torch", it doesn't look that impressive to me.....but I guess impressive is subjective.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 If you look at the context of the discussion I was really speaking to how a Nina torch usually works and referring more to the sequence of temps than the actual temps, hence the term "loosely"....Adam and others have mentioned big temp anomalies keep showing up in the 5 day means...He specifically mentioned +10 to +14 as something he thought would happen....My examples in the 1st post of the thread show to get into the top echelon of torches on the maxes over a 10 day period we would need +13 to +15 departures over the period, hence my example....I am not forecasting a 10 day torch....This was all in the context of the thread.. As far as the actual "torch", it doesn't look that impressive to me.....but I guess impressive is subjective.... I understand that - I may have twisted your post to fit my point, which is the constant "torch cancel" posts are rather annoying based on a GFS run that shows cold in the fantasy range. Posters can't have it both ways (not you) - they can't condem a model because it isn't showing the cold/snow they want in the short range, but then cheer it on when it isn't showing the forecasted warmth in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I understand that - I may have twisted your post to fit my point, which is the constant "torch cancel" posts are rather annoying based on a GFS run that shows cold in the fantasy range. Posters can't have it both ways (not you) - they can't condem a model because it isn't showing the cold/snow they want in the short range, but then cheer it on when it isn't showing the forecasted warmth in the long range. I think we are going to see some warm days in the next 10-12 days....that is why I think it would be cool to look back at a 10 day period to assess since temps will still be volatile in a torch....I think if we have some mid/upper 40s mixed in with some 60+ that can still be a "torch"....most of my examples had some highs in the 40s...models are going to be really bad with surface temps in the mid range...I'd still lean warmer than what the models are showing but it is hard to pinpoint exact dates....the January 5-14 period featured average maxes of around +9-+10....if we are looking at that or even colder then i think some of the hype will not have been justified, at least in our backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think we are going to see some warm days in the next 10-12 days....that is why I think it would be cool to look back at a 10 day period to assess since temps will still be volatile in a torch....I think if we have some mid/upper 40s mixed in with some 60+ that can still be a "torch"....most of my examples had some highs in the 40s...models are going to be really bad with surface temps in the mid range...I'd still lean warmer than what the models are showing but it is hard to pinpoint exact dates....the January 5-14 period featured average maxes of around +9-+10....if we are looking at that or even colder then i think some of the hype will not have been justified, at least in our backyard That I understand too - I know what Adam was forecasting, as you said +10 to +14 for many areas. To some, that isn't much of a torch, to others it is. Yesterday we were +18 for the day at BWI, a couple days like that in a row, and I would consider it a torch. But I fully understand that the word torch is subjective to the person who either wants it, or doesn't. I also think canceling the torch, when it hasn't happened yet, is just silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 torch is trying to compete with stratospheric warming on the too often mentioned scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 torch is trying to compete with stratospheric warming on the too often mentioned scale I know I only used maxes since those are what people care about most, but I think my thread gives an idea of what kind of temps big torches produce....the January 5-14 period produced a max average of 52 or so....I would think that should be exceeded if we are talking about a big torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was just looking at Ninas since 1887....there have been ~39...I had to judgment call on the close ones pre-satellite....only 2/39 were complete shutouts (T or 0) in F/M/A....and only 3 others had less than an inch....that is 87-88% that had more than 1" in F/M/A.....this is only slightly less than the historic average of all years of 91-92% that had at least 1" in F/M/A....if we take all winters that had less than 1" heading into February, the sample isnt as useful as it shrinks to 10 winters, but 8/10 (80%) had 1"+ in F/M/A...only ones that didnt were the big Ninos of 72-73 and 97-98......I didn't look at +AO years or years that there was a presidential election or years that the Redskins failed to make the playoffs....but the point is, it is very hard to get shut out in F/M/A, and in fact it is very hard to not get at least 1".....any way you slice it, it seems we have a ~85% chance of getting at least another inch and probably a bit higher than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hello all! I will be joining you in the mid-atlantic region soon, next month i will be moving up to Laurel, MD for a 3 month internship, hope to see some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was just looking at Ninas since 1887....there have been ~39...I had to judgment call on the close ones pre-satellite....only 2/39 were complete shutouts (T or 0) in F/M/A....and only 3 others had less than an inch....that is 87-88% that had more than 1" in F/M/A.....this is only slightly less than the historic average of all years of 91-92% that had at least 1" in F/M/A....if we take all winters that had less than 1" heading into February, the sample isnt as useful as it shrinks to 10 winters, but 8/10 (80%) had 1"+ in F/M/A...only ones that didnt were the big Ninos of 72-73 and 97-98......I didn't look at +AO years or years that there was a presidential election or years that the Redskins failed to make the playoffs....but the point is, it is very hard to get shut out in F/M/A, and in fact it is very hard to not get at least 1".....any way you slice it, it seems we have a ~85% chance of getting at least another inch and probably a bit higher than that That's some good information. Thanks for doing the work. Only 10 winters since 1887 with less than an inch at the end of January is a bit surprising. No wonder Stormtracker is ready to do Al Roker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was just looking at Ninas since 1887....there have been ~39...I had to judgment call on the close ones pre-satellite....only 2/39 were complete shutouts (T or 0) in F/M/A....and only 3 others had less than an inch....that is 87-88% that had more than 1" in F/M/A.....this is only slightly less than the historic average of all years of 91-92% that had at least 1" in F/M/A....if we take all winters that had less than 1" heading into February, the sample isnt as useful as it shrinks to 10 winters, but 8/10 (80%) had 1"+ in F/M/A...only ones that didnt were the big Ninos of 72-73 and 97-98......I didn't look at +AO years or years that there was a presidential election or years that the Redskins failed to make the playoffs....but the point is, it is very hard to get shut out in F/M/A, and in fact it is very hard to not get at least 1".....any way you slice it, it seems we have a ~85% chance of getting at least another inch and probably a bit higher than that Do you have the list of seasons and strength? I have back to 1950 of course. April snow is a myth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hello all! I will be joining you in the mid-atlantic region soon, next month i will be moving up to Laurel, MD for a 3 month internship, hope to see some snow! welcome just don't give exagerrated wind obs and all will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Do you have the list of seasons and strength? I have back to 1950 of course. April snow is a myth... I threw it in there...DCA did get 0.4" in 2007....I could see an early April event....they are huge standard deviation events, but they do happen....I mean it did snow in October...you can't get more than like 0.5" at DCA, but IAD has around a 20% chance of a measureable April event...and I think they have 4 events of 1"+.....I think RDU had a 1-3" event on 4/18-19/83......crazy sh-it can happen (except at DCA)...in any case I don't think removing April really affects the stats much if at all...maybe slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Do you have the list of seasons and strength? I have back to 1950 of course. April snow is a myth... This is really a bit of guesswork, especially on the borderline cases, but year is 1st year of winter....so 1762 means 1762-63 1889 S 1890 W 1892 S 1893 M 1894 W 1897 W 1898 W 1903 M 1908 W 1909 M 1910 W 1916 S 1917 W 1922 W 1924 W 1933 M 1938 W 1942 M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Matt you could easily do what energy mets do and do a good job. Doing a statistical model and weighing the factors you think will be important is the big thing right now and I'm sure you would be just as competitive if not better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Matt you could easily do what energy mets do and do a good job. Doing a statistical model and weighing the factors you think will be important is the big thing right now and I'm sure you would be just as competitive if not better! Thanks man!...Are you guys hiring, and can I work from home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks man!...Are you guys hiring, and can I work from home? Contrary to belief, I am not an energy met and can only dream of making that salary. I am a poor operational forecaster who probably makes less money than most of the working class on this forum (alright maybe not the lowest paid mets; there are accuwx mets on here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Contrary to belief, I am not an energy met and can only dream of making that salary. I am a poor operational forecaster who probably makes less money than most of the working class on this forum (alright maybe not the lowest paid mets; there are accuwx mets on here). I guess I knew that....but I'm sure greater opportunities lie ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I guess I knew that....but I'm sure greater opportunities lie ahead.... Thanks man... By the way, remember that idea from a while ago about how PV heights can retreat so much they make a fake -NAO signal and can produce winter storms? The 18z GFS ensembles are definitely doing that. I am not impressed with our torches lately; although, maybe that's because nothing can compete with December into early January's warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 fwiw, there was a T of snow April 2000, Saturday night into Sunday cold front passage. first half of the month but that's all I can remember. That was an amazing front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That was an amazing front Even an inch into South Bowie. 1-3" for the 'burbs. http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACON_Files/2000Apr_Precip.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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