Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 torch is trying to compete with stratospheric warming on the too often mentioned scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hello all! I will be joining you in the mid-atlantic region soon, next month i will be moving up to Laurel, MD for a 3 month internship, hope to see some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was just looking at Ninas since 1887....there have been ~39...I had to judgment call on the close ones pre-satellite....only 2/39 were complete shutouts (T or 0) in F/M/A....and only 3 others had less than an inch....that is 87-88% that had more than 1" in F/M/A.....this is only slightly less than the historic average of all years of 91-92% that had at least 1" in F/M/A....if we take all winters that had less than 1" heading into February, the sample isnt as useful as it shrinks to 10 winters, but 8/10 (80%) had 1"+ in F/M/A...only ones that didnt were the big Ninos of 72-73 and 97-98......I didn't look at +AO years or years that there was a presidential election or years that the Redskins failed to make the playoffs....but the point is, it is very hard to get shut out in F/M/A, and in fact it is very hard to not get at least 1".....any way you slice it, it seems we have a ~85% chance of getting at least another inch and probably a bit higher than that That's some good information. Thanks for doing the work. Only 10 winters since 1887 with less than an inch at the end of January is a bit surprising. No wonder Stormtracker is ready to do Al Roker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was just looking at Ninas since 1887....there have been ~39...I had to judgment call on the close ones pre-satellite....only 2/39 were complete shutouts (T or 0) in F/M/A....and only 3 others had less than an inch....that is 87-88% that had more than 1" in F/M/A.....this is only slightly less than the historic average of all years of 91-92% that had at least 1" in F/M/A....if we take all winters that had less than 1" heading into February, the sample isnt as useful as it shrinks to 10 winters, but 8/10 (80%) had 1"+ in F/M/A...only ones that didnt were the big Ninos of 72-73 and 97-98......I didn't look at +AO years or years that there was a presidential election or years that the Redskins failed to make the playoffs....but the point is, it is very hard to get shut out in F/M/A, and in fact it is very hard to not get at least 1".....any way you slice it, it seems we have a ~85% chance of getting at least another inch and probably a bit higher than that Do you have the list of seasons and strength? I have back to 1950 of course. April snow is a myth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hello all! I will be joining you in the mid-atlantic region soon, next month i will be moving up to Laurel, MD for a 3 month internship, hope to see some snow! welcome just don't give exagerrated wind obs and all will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Matt you could easily do what energy mets do and do a good job. Doing a statistical model and weighing the factors you think will be important is the big thing right now and I'm sure you would be just as competitive if not better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks man!...Are you guys hiring, and can I work from home? Contrary to belief, I am not an energy met and can only dream of making that salary. I am a poor operational forecaster who probably makes less money than most of the working class on this forum (alright maybe not the lowest paid mets; there are accuwx mets on here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I guess I knew that....but I'm sure greater opportunities lie ahead.... Thanks man... By the way, remember that idea from a while ago about how PV heights can retreat so much they make a fake -NAO signal and can produce winter storms? The 18z GFS ensembles are definitely doing that. I am not impressed with our torches lately; although, maybe that's because nothing can compete with December into early January's warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That was an amazing front Even an inch into South Bowie. 1-3" for the 'burbs. http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACON_Files/2000Apr_Precip.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am full on neigeing this storm for Fri/Sat. Heck, any frzn would be fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am full on neigeing this storm for Fri/Sat. Heck, any frzn would be fine with me the whole dont like ice thing is stupid. it's better than sleet. keep it under 1/2-3/4" (here it's probably closer to 1/2" as it's not as normal as further noth) and it's not even really a problem unless you have to drive somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just saw the article on the Wash Post. Zone 4... go figure nothing all winter so far and this possible event is on the day of my daughter's benefit dance show. Personally I would prefer snow. I can drive in snow, ice no one should drive in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just saw the article on the Wash Post. Zone 4... go figure nothing all winter so far and this possible event is on the day of my daughter's benefit dance show. Personally I would prefer snow. I can drive in snow, ice no one should drive in it. yeah - i sent the article to a family friend. she is an event coordinator at Ceresville and had sent me an email asking about the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 29th &30th ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 to picking and choosing which posts to pinky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 to picking and choosing which posts to pinky gotta be a bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 gotta be a bigger Yes, I guess I need to be more annoying to have my posts stick around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Some people like to overanalyze the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 fwiw, the latest wundermap shows some flakes tonight from the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Lot of banter in the storm threat thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 End of the 18z shows the coldest air of the season in these parts by far. Shows a +pna/-nao too. Both the gfs and the euro seem to want to start Feb off really good in these parts. Euro in particular seems to be stuck on sniffing out some long lost greenland ridging. I'm starting to get a little optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 End of the 18z shows the coldest air of the season in these parts by far. Shows a +pna/-nao too. Both the gfs and the euro seem to want to start Feb off really good in these parts. Euro in particular seems to be stuck on sniffing out some long lost greenland ridging. I'm starting to get a little optimistic. we're abot to have an epic cold and dry feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 we're abot to have an epic cold and dry feb abort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 abort? aboot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 aboot a boot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like a beautiful winter day on Saturday. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 we're abot to have an epic cold and dry feb At least the ponds will freeze. book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At least the ponds will freeze. book it! i remember last year we were always waiting on late run extreme cold that never came. that's the pv dropping into the lakes isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 End of the 18z shows the coldest air of the season in these parts by far. Shows a +pna/-nao too. Both the gfs and the euro seem to want to start Feb off really good in these parts. Euro in particular seems to be stuck on sniffing out some long lost greenland ridging. I'm starting to get a little optimistic. The last several GFS runs had that period as the warmest of its 16 days, so a flip catches one's eye to see if its sniffing something out. I'd love those single-digit lows to verify. Its rare to get through winter without single-digit lows here, but this year all I've managed is two 12-degree lows, two 13's and two 14's (all this month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i remember last year we were always waiting on late run extreme cold that never came. that's the pv dropping into the lakes isnt it? A bit extreme of a solution to say the least but a decent pna ridge out west with some ridging around greenland is about as good as we can ask for. No way the trough verifies like that but the gfs and euro may actually be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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