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2012 Winter Banter Thread #2


yoda

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I included him... I included Mapgirl cause I was afraid her rage at not being included would increase torch values and deny us snow...

aaww shucks, but really, its okay. I wouldn't consider myself a part of their blog, but I am proud to say that I have contributed! :)

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I don't think I belong, I've hardly had any articles this year. It's hard to be influential when you don't have anything to say. Jason and the regulars deserve the credit.

Leesburg only orders bread and milk based on your forecasts so I'd say you have some pull.

And something my work impressed on us from the start is it is quality over quantity so just know that your few articles carry a lot of weight.

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Leesburg only orders bread and milk based on your forecasts so I'd say you have some pull.

And something my work impressed on us from the start is it is quality over quantity so just know that your few articles carry a lot of weight.

Thanks....I might get to write a winter weather article tomorrow on the weekend threat. Then I'll feel powerful like Ian and Scuddz.

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If you look at the context of the discussion I was really speaking to how a Nina torch usually works and referring more to the sequence of temps than the actual temps, hence the term "loosely"....Adam and others have mentioned big temp anomalies keep showing up in the 5 day means...He specifically mentioned +10 to +14 as something he thought would happen....My examples in the 1st post of the thread show to get into the top echelon of torches on the maxes over a 10 day period we would need +13 to +15 departures over the period, hence my example....I am not forecasting a 10 day torch....This was all in the context of the thread..

As far as the actual "torch", it doesn't look that impressive to me.....but I guess impressive is subjective....

I understand that - I may have twisted your post to fit my point, which is the constant "torch cancel" posts are rather annoying based on a GFS run that shows cold in the fantasy range.

Posters can't have it both ways (not you) - they can't condem a model because it isn't showing the cold/snow they want in the short range, but then cheer it on when it isn't showing the forecasted warmth in the long range.

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I think we are going to see some warm days in the next 10-12 days....that is why I think it would be cool to look back at a 10 day period to assess since temps will still be volatile in a torch....I think if we have some mid/upper 40s mixed in with some 60+ that can still be a "torch"....most of my examples had some highs in the 40s...models are going to be really bad with surface temps in the mid range...I'd still lean warmer than what the models are showing but it is hard to pinpoint exact dates....the January 5-14 period featured average maxes of around +9-+10....if we are looking at that or even colder then i think some of the hype will not have been justified, at least in our backyard

That I understand too - I know what Adam was forecasting, as you said +10 to +14 for many areas. To some, that isn't much of a torch, to others it is.

Yesterday we were +18 for the day at BWI, a couple days like that in a row, and I would consider it a torch.

But I fully understand that the word torch is subjective to the person who either wants it, or doesn't.

I also think canceling the torch, when it hasn't happened yet, is just silly.

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