mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Is it just me, or does the 18z OP show some kind of marginal storm on the 25th? Chasing 8 day storm chances are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Is it just me, or does the 18z OP show some kind of marginal storm on the 25th? looks like tail end snow possible.. not much and after truncation Actually its at about 180 hours. Isn't truncation at 192? Regardless, I doubt seriously that its correct that far out, but the torch of torches that was predicted for next week is starting to look pretty ordinary. I don't take much from that except that it might give us a little hope as Jan ends and Feb begins. In other words by then the pattern might be better than we once thought it was going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yes, that is a +27 big steaming turd of an anomaly on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually its at about 180 hours. Isn't truncation at 192? Regardless, I doubt seriously that its correct that far out, but the torch of torches that was predicted for next week is starting to look pretty ordinary. I don't take much from that except that it might give us a little hope as Jan ends and Feb begins. In other words by then the pattern might be better than we once thought it was going to be. Why don't you wait until the torch takes place before you say it's ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Chasing 8 day storm chances are you? A weenie's gotta do what a weenie's gotta do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually its at about 180 hours. Isn't truncation at 192? Regardless, I doubt seriously that its correct that far out, but the torch of torches that was predicted for next week is starting to look pretty ordinary. I don't take much from that except that it might give us a little hope as Jan ends and Feb begins. In other words by then the pattern might be better than we once thought it was going to be. truncation is at 180.. the snow for most east of the apps (n md) is between then and like 186. and it's probably very little as it switches to 12hr precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I've said this several times this winter and it is still a guess since I don't have the science or experience to back it up but I think the Atlantic has to change 1st and lead the way and there are some signs that will happen. The PAC side is a nightmare and no matter what short term changes we get it always wants to snap back into default position with a vortex in the gulf of Alaska and a ridge over the Aleutians. call me an idiot (it won;t be the first time by any stretch), but this "winter" has been acting much more like a NINO than NINA well, what usually happens in FEB during NINO's?.....Cold, so maybe we still have a shot and as much as it will pain me to see snow falling to our NE, it's gotta' start somewhere if this d@mn pattern is gunna' change and it's only logoical that they would see it happen first well that felt good, I haven't stretched like that since I exercised with that Jane Fonda beta max video in 1990! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 A weenie's gotta do what a weenie's gotta do. Whatever makes you feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Whatever makes you feel better Anything that allows me to build my Snow Fozzie will make me feel better. Enjoy your torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It does. Enjoy your torch! I will! And hopefully afterwards, it will get cold and the snow lovers will see some snow. See, I can root for snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 call me an idiot (it won;t be the first time by any stretch), but this "winter" has been acting much more like a NINO than NINA well, what usually happens in FEB during NINO's?.....Cold, so maybe we still have a shot and as much as it will pain me to see snow falling to our NE, it's gotta' start somewhere if this d@mn pattern is gunna' change and it's only logoical that they would see it happen first well that felt good, I haven't stretched like that since I exercised with that Jane Fonda beta max video in 1990! To some extent I agree maybe it's kind of been like a strong niño but without the active STJ so even worse. I do think in a niño we'd have more ridging over AK and of course it has been a big +EPO. The good February's in a niño usually come from a good pacific so that is going to have to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You know its pretty bad around here when Matt goes off to SNE and creates a thread there to talk about their snow. traitor I admire Matt's tenacity. He obviously has his priorities in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thankfully in DC it only takes one big storm to get us close to average for the year, so although it's been disappointing not having much to discuss in the winter weather department, I will still optimistically look toward February for something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 To some extent I agree maybe it's kind of been like a strong niño but without the active STJ so even worse. I do think in a niño we'd have more ridging over AK and of course it has been a big +EPO. The good February's in a niño usually come from a good pacific so that is going to have to change. im not an enso expert but outside some oddities it seems like a nina to me--or at least not as much "not a nina" as has been the story from a number of folks. fast flow.. warm to cold to warm etc. it has been fairly wet, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Why don't you wait until the torch takes place before you say it's ordinary. You better hope the gfs surface temps are wrong cause 40-50 ain't much of a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 truncation is at 180.. the snow for most east of the apps (n md) is between then and like 186. and it's probably very little as it switches to 12hr precip totals. I was thinking that had changed. Did they just add in the three hour times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was thinking that had changed. Did they just add in the three hour times? i guess you can pull up the 6 hr panel without temps.. but on the mslp_temp one it switches to 12 after 180. looking at 6 hr of 186 there is no precip so at least east of the apps there might not even be any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I've said this several times this winter and it is still a guess since I don't have the science or experience to back it up but I think the Atlantic has to change 1st and lead the way and there are some signs that will happen. The PAC side is a nightmare and no matter what short term changes we get it always wants to snap back into default position with a vortex in the gulf of Alaska and a ridge over the Aleutians. I've read and heard so many debate the chicken vs egg wrt whether we need the ATL to set up right or the PAC to get it's act in order for us to get a reasonable pattern. I'm with you in that the Atlantic has to lead and improve. Not too many of our good, i.e. big snows were PAC driven. There are some I'm sure but We need -NAO/AO to be in business. All these pseudo/transient looks have to disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was thinking that had changed. Did they just add in the three hour times? The actual truncation occurs at 192h. It was changed from 180h to 192h when we to t574 resolution in July 2010. I'd link the tin, but I'm on my mobile. The information is available from the Ncep/emc webpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 ok, guess i was wrong.. but the truncation part is actually meaningless to the point of the post anyway. maybe i've never cycled through 180.. it just looks weird when it jumps from 6 hr precip to 12 hr when you're still cycling through 6 hr panels (180-186). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 ok, guess i was wrong.. but the truncation part is actually meaningless to the point of the post anyway. maybe i've never cycled through 180.. it just looks weird when it jumps from 6 hr precip to 12 hr when you're still cycling through 6 hr panels (180-186). I was just providing a clarifying answer. It's possible they still generate low resolution post processed files and graphics after 180h....I don't waste time looking at the deterministic output past 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Warm and windy here. That should eat up most of the snowpack if it makes it to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was just providing a clarifying answer. It's possible they still generate low resolution post processed files and graphics after 180h....I don't waste time looking at the deterministic output past 7 days. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php If I am reading it right they extended the High Resolution to 192Hr in July of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Warm and windy here. That should eat up most of the snowpack if it makes it to ORH. Minimal damage here after just a few hours above freezing. Upslope snow now in progress. I doubt Will lost his snowpack out to the east in ORH but thanks for caring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Minimal damage here after just a few hours above freezing. Upslope snow now in progress. I doubt Will lost his snowpack out to the east in ORH but thanks for caring. Ignore him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep....ov/GFS/impl.php If I am reading it right they extended the High Resolution to 192Hr in July of 2010. We did (see my previous post). It's possible that when we made that change in the model itself that something wasn't correspondingly changed with the model output/graphics. (that stuff is out of our control). Though, I just looked at the MAG for the latest GFS, and they are creating higher-res graphics in 3 hourly intervals out to 192....so it's consistent. Oh how I wish we didn't run the week 2, low resolution deterministic GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Oh how I wish we didn't run the week 2, low resolution deterministic GFS..... But then you wouldn't get maps like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Little snow burst up here in Frederick. My girls are running around all excited, I will let them have their excitment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You better hope the gfs surface temps are wrong cause 40-50 ain't much of a torch. In case you didn't read this in the other thread, here is zwyts take on next weeks torch: too much modified arctic air around and with the fast flow, almost impossible not to get a cold front in a 10 day period....over a shorter period, I guess it is possible...you can still get a long stretch of + departures but there will be 1-day, 2-day periods where you are +5 instead of +23...I think we will see that come to fruition next week...probably only 3 torchy afternoon highs in row at one time before we get a 45-50 Max thrown in there....I envision something loosely like this 61, 68, 64, 48, 46, 57, 74, 59, 43, 40 and probably 1 of those is a cheap midnight max....you still get a 10-day period of +13 to 15 departures but a few days don't feel as torchy If you wish to continue to talk about how the torch isn't going to be "that much" then you can troll zwyts too while you are at it. His thoughts are realistic and on par with what I have seen from those who are forecasting the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This thread and this winter has made my avatar cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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