MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well...the Pacific NW forecast is not bad. In a bit of fairness, CPC also went cold for the northern plains when hugging La Nina climo. But, lest we forget my old buddy at Accuwx who predicted a mass exodus from Chicago after this brutal winter. We heard all about the Seattle snowstorm, but I don't think they've actually had much of a parade of storms this year. Jan was above average precip in Seattle, but Dec was well below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The standard deviation is so much higher now than in the summer that comparing the magnitude of departures is kind of futile. Just looking at the record low highs in July, there are a lot of low 70s and upper 60s which are -20 departures, but I'm willing to bet those are mostly rainy days where the overnight lows are held up. Good point and I agree that -20F highs probably were matched with near normal lows on those days. Well, I'd be interested in comparing apples to apples for summer and winter over the past 20-30 years and see, for example, how often a 2SD, 3SD or larger departure occurred. Just based on my (probably biased) memory, getting such positive departures in winter has happened more frequently than negative departures in summer. We heard all about the Seattle snowstorm, but I don't think they've actually had much of a parade of storms this year. Jan was above average precip in Seattle, but Dec was well below average. Hence the benefit of such loose semantics in a forecast..."frequent winter storms". Hard not to verify that forecast in the Pacific NW during winter when it often rains nearly daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 we should be in the yellow Ugh........this doesn't sound right....... DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-053-054-WVZ053-090415- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.100209T1700Z-100211T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.100209T1700Z-100211T0000Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-LOUDOUN-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK... WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS... LEESBURG...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...CHARLES TOWN ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. * WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS AND POSSIBLY DEADLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm so pissed off ..can't sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 were we this sad in 2008-09?....the 1/27 event was nice, but that was pretty much a non snow winter until 3/1?....or because it was cold we didnt give up? I was. Only being on the boards for a little while I was still learning. I relied to heavily on people who thought they knew stuff and was easily swayed. Now I can take this winter of fail in stride better. I'm still bummed but not to the same degree. If it were cold and dry this year it might be different but to be honest it's hard to get upset at our missed chances this time cause they really never had a shot to begin with. It just been too dang warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Severe wx season will be starting in two months, mabye sooner with this kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The standard deviation is so much higher now than in the summer that comparing the magnitude of departures is kind of futile. Just looking at the record low highs in July, there are a lot of low 70s and upper 60s which are -20 departures, but I'm willing to bet those are mostly rainy days where the overnight lows are held up. I agree with both of your points. Regarding the first, consider that the historical average maximum temperature range in DC in January is 27.3 degrees -- from an average maximum of only 29.7 in January 1919 to an average maximum of 57.0 in January 1950. In July, on the other hand, the corresponding range is just 13.0 degrees -- from an average maximum of 80.6 in July 1891 to an average maximum of 93.6 last July. Regarding the second point, I recall a number of cool rainy summer days, but not cool sunny summer days. The most extreme I recall is June 3, 1997, when the maximum was only 58 degrees -- about a 23 degree departure. However, there was 0.54 inches of rain that day and the minimum temperature was just five degrees below the maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hugging the CMC and JMA for a few flakes that will be gone next week? L O L So begins the epic FeBBruary!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 All ji asked for, very nicely at one point overnite, was one snowfall that covers up the grass. Maybe we can sneak one in. I am still hugging whatever I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We'll get something this weekend. It won't be big, but if we can keep our expectations down, we should be happy. And it'll be good to test out my new FIOS I'm getting today!!! 25/25mbps baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We'll get something this weekend. It won't be big, but if we can keep our expectations down, we should be happy. And it'll be good to test out my new FIOS I'm getting today!!! 25/25mbps baby!!! Just means that you'll get the warm updates faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I honestly do not know whether to laugh or cry that people posted the NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 I honestly do not know whether to laugh or cry that people posted the NOGAPS Ian posted the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ian posted the CRAS it was just the link. at least I didnt have to see its suckage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ian caused me to have a mini stroke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I know feb sun angle is a weenieism but when I stepped outside at noon and the sun hit my face, I could really feel it. Haven't felt sun like that since early fall. Time to start working on the tan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm so pissed off ..can't sleep Is it true what I heard...Ji saw his shadow today and cancelled the next 6 winters?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Like I'm sure is the case with a lot of members here, I'm seen as the go-to guy for a weather forecast at my office. I gained a reputation for telling the staff that there would be no snow from 12/25-26/2010, even as talk when we broke for the holiday was a major snowstorm was possible. When LWX hoisted the WSW's for 6-10" on Christmas Eve, I was getting texts joking about my "forecast." I just replied with winks. Last year, when the talk was still of rain for the 1/26 storm, I was advising the boss not to schedule appointments with suppliers from overseas for that afternoon, and ultimately persuaded him to close the business early that day, and as a result, we all got home ahead of the disaster with that evening commute. I also told several friends at work on 10/21 that we might see a snowfall before Halloween. That was pretty satisfying when it verified. Last week, I was asked when we would see some snow on the ground, and I said hopefully for Super Bowl Sunday. The warmth this week brought about more ribbing. I could really use some of that neige the GGEM was spitting out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If this weekends event fails apart at the last minute it will get very ugly in here. Lots of #2ing going on for what just a couple of years ago would be a totally meh event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If this weekends event fails apart at the last minute it will get very ugly in here. Lots of #2ing going on for what just a couple of years ago would be a totally meh event Surprisingly the word 'meh' has not even appeared anywhere regarding this weekend. I imagine if it is a bust or just another dusting we will see it in the post-game analysis So much for this winter. Anyway, a few small events will make the month fly by and we will be complaining about the cold Spring soon enough. (At least I will.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am looking out of my back window at a large cloud of midges, flying around in the clear evening sunlight. If we don't get a decent cold snap in Feb, this summer is going to suck, bug-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Still seeing high bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Car topper is my thinking. I'm a half-empty guy this winter as to not get disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am looking out of my back window at a large cloud of midges, flying around in the clear evening sunlight. If we don't get a decent cold snap in Feb, this summer is going to suck, bug-wise. I suppose the cold in Alaska will keep the summer mosquitoes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am looking out of my back window at a large cloud of midges, flying around in the clear evening sunlight. If we don't get a decent cold snap in Feb, this summer is going to suck, bug-wise. Cyonara 9.7 will do the trick - perimeter treatment. Although that won't help if you're outside lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I log out for half a day, come back to three more pages and mostly worthless posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I log out for half a day, come back to three more pages and mostly worthless posts. DBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I log out for half a day, come back to three more pages and mostly worthless posts. You do realize this is a banter thread correct? I can probably count the "worthwhile" posts (whatever that means) on one hand in this thread. Edit: duh, there's a reason I lurk and don't post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 You do realize this is a banter thread correct? I can probably count the "worthwhile" posts (whatever that means) on one hand in this thread. She is most likely talking about the other thread about this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 She is most likely talking about the other thread about this weekend. Ah, duh then on my part. Sorry map girl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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