biodhokie Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am in stage 5. resigned to no more snow this season, but hoping for a good severe weather season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Fixed: WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Stage 6. If the weather blows elephant dong medicate by trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 The 00z GFS run will be telling (credit to Randy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Gotta love the real possibility that I may not see heavier snow this winter than I did in York on 10/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I just saw that parts of Maine are under a WWA for 6-10." I know warning criteria differs by location/CWA, but what the hell is warning criteria up there? I would have thought 6-10" would be considered enough for a warning, even in Northern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 When in doubt.....go with persistence....no reason to believe anything else until it's sitting on top of your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I just saw that parts of Maine are under a WWA for 6-10." I know warning criteria differs by location/CWA, but what the hell is warning criteria up there? I would have thought 6-10" would be considered enough for a warning, even in Northern Maine. . Folks in northern Maine are not sissies like mid atlanticers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I just saw that parts of Maine are under a WWA for 6-10." I know warning criteria differs by location/CWA, but what the hell is warning criteria up there? I would have thought 6-10" would be considered enough for a warning, even in Northern Maine. It depends. If it's 6-10" in a 12 hour period, then it is a warning. If it takes longer, then a warning isn't needed unless it's at least 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It depends. If it's 6-10" in a 12 hour period, then it is a warning. If it takes longer, then a warning isn't needed unless it's at least 10". Interesting that thr DC/Baltimore metro area needs a higher snowfall total that West Virginia and SW Virginia for a Warning. You would think it would be the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Interesting that thr DC/Baltimore metro area needs a higher snowfall total that West Virginia and SW Virginia for a Warning. You would think it would be the opposite. Keep in mind that this is the 24 hour warning criteria. It's much more common to get our snowfalls in 12 hours periods or less so the 12 hr criteria is much more relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I'm not even looking at models anymore. Just a quick brush and I move on. For some odd reason, I don't even think I care if it snows this winter. I not not sure I know who I am right now. Maybe I need to take a prozac the size of a frisbee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I want -20F departures during our climo hottest part of the year to compensate for the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Keep in mind that this is the 24 hour warning criteria. It's much more common to get our snowfalls in 12 hours periods or less so the 12 hr criteria is much more relevant we should be in the yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I want -20F departures during our climo hottest part of the year to compensate for the last 2 days. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Should have left my sig up. It has torched the last 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This. Preferably put the entire month of august into the icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This. Preferably put the entire month of august into the icebox. Perhaps RodneyS, Ian or zwyts could answer this since they have such a natural affinity for recalling past weather events, but in the years I've lived in Maryland (81-99, 09-present), I really can't recall periods with -20F departures in summer. I recall often having days like this in winter, but I don't recall any days in late July or early August with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s. I remember a few coolish days in June from time to time, but never in the dog dayz of summer in mid July-early August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Worst seasonal forecast ever? Hands down, AccuWeather.com's long-range experts agree that the Midwest and Great Lakes region will be dealt the worst of winter this year. Bitterly cold blasts of arctic air are expected to invade the northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes from December through January, while snowfall averages above normal. "A couple of heavy hitters are possible [during this time]," Pastelok said in relation to the snow. http://www.crh.noaa....=78489&source=0 Record Warm Fall and Winter - So Far Based on the preliminary data the period of September 1st 2011 through January 31st 2012 is the warmest for the Fargo Area, the Grand Forks Airport and the University of North Dakota/ NWS location. Below are the tables that tell the story. Fargo Area (ThreadEx Station) Extremes Highest Average Average Temperature degrees F Days: 9/1 - 1/31 Length of period: 153 days Years: 1881-2012 Rank Value Ending Date 1 38.1 2012 2 36.5 2006 3 36.0 1932 4 35.8 2002 5 35.5 1964 6 35.4 1995 7 34.9 1942, 1944 9 34.8 1921 10 34.3 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Worst seasonal forecast ever? Well...the Pacific NW forecast is not bad. In a bit of fairness, CPC also went cold for the northern plains when hugging La Nina climo. But, lest we forget my old buddy at Accuwx who predicted a mass exodus from Chicago after this brutal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Perhaps RodneyS, Ian or zwyts could answer this since they have such a natural affinity for recalling past weather events, but in the years I've lived in Maryland (81-99, 09-present), I really can't recall periods with -20F departures in summer. I recall often having days like this in winter, but I don't recall any days in late July or early August with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s. I remember a few coolish days in June from time to time, but never in the dog dayz of summer in mid July-early August. The standard deviation is so much higher now than in the summer that comparing the magnitude of departures is kind of futile. Just looking at the record low highs in July, there are a lot of low 70s and upper 60s which are -20 departures, but I'm willing to bet those are mostly rainy days where the overnight lows are held up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well...the Pacific NW forecast is not bad. In a bit of fairness, CPC also went cold for the northern plains when hugging La Nina climo. But, lest we forget my old buddy at Accuwx who predicted a mass exodus from Chicago after this brutal winter. We heard all about the Seattle snowstorm, but I don't think they've actually had much of a parade of storms this year. Jan was above average precip in Seattle, but Dec was well below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The standard deviation is so much higher now than in the summer that comparing the magnitude of departures is kind of futile. Just looking at the record low highs in July, there are a lot of low 70s and upper 60s which are -20 departures, but I'm willing to bet those are mostly rainy days where the overnight lows are held up. Good point and I agree that -20F highs probably were matched with near normal lows on those days. Well, I'd be interested in comparing apples to apples for summer and winter over the past 20-30 years and see, for example, how often a 2SD, 3SD or larger departure occurred. Just based on my (probably biased) memory, getting such positive departures in winter has happened more frequently than negative departures in summer. We heard all about the Seattle snowstorm, but I don't think they've actually had much of a parade of storms this year. Jan was above average precip in Seattle, but Dec was well below average. Hence the benefit of such loose semantics in a forecast..."frequent winter storms". Hard not to verify that forecast in the Pacific NW during winter when it often rains nearly daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 we should be in the yellow Ugh........this doesn't sound right....... DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-053-054-WVZ053-090415- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.100209T1700Z-100211T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.100209T1700Z-100211T0000Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-LOUDOUN-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK... WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS... LEESBURG...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...CHARLES TOWN ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. * WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS AND POSSIBLY DEADLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 were we this sad in 2008-09?....the 1/27 event was nice, but that was pretty much a non snow winter until 3/1?....or because it was cold we didnt give up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm so pissed off ..can't sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 were we this sad in 2008-09?....the 1/27 event was nice, but that was pretty much a non snow winter until 3/1?....or because it was cold we didnt give up? I was. Only being on the boards for a little while I was still learning. I relied to heavily on people who thought they knew stuff and was easily swayed. Now I can take this winter of fail in stride better. I'm still bummed but not to the same degree. If it were cold and dry this year it might be different but to be honest it's hard to get upset at our missed chances this time cause they really never had a shot to begin with. It just been too dang warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Severe wx season will be starting in two months, mabye sooner with this kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The standard deviation is so much higher now than in the summer that comparing the magnitude of departures is kind of futile. Just looking at the record low highs in July, there are a lot of low 70s and upper 60s which are -20 departures, but I'm willing to bet those are mostly rainy days where the overnight lows are held up. I agree with both of your points. Regarding the first, consider that the historical average maximum temperature range in DC in January is 27.3 degrees -- from an average maximum of only 29.7 in January 1919 to an average maximum of 57.0 in January 1950. In July, on the other hand, the corresponding range is just 13.0 degrees -- from an average maximum of 80.6 in July 1891 to an average maximum of 93.6 last July. Regarding the second point, I recall a number of cool rainy summer days, but not cool sunny summer days. The most extreme I recall is June 3, 1997, when the maximum was only 58 degrees -- about a 23 degree departure. However, there was 0.54 inches of rain that day and the minimum temperature was just five degrees below the maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hugging the CMC and JMA for a few flakes that will be gone next week? L O L So begins the epic FeBBruary!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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