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2012 Winter Banter Thread #2


yoda

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Well...the Pacific NW forecast is not bad. In a bit of fairness, CPC also went cold for the northern plains when hugging La Nina climo. But, lest we forget my old buddy at Accuwx who predicted a mass exodus from Chicago after this brutal winter. ;)

We heard all about the Seattle snowstorm, but I don't think they've actually had much of a parade of storms this year. Jan was above average precip in Seattle, but Dec was well below average.

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The standard deviation is so much higher now than in the summer that comparing the magnitude of departures is kind of futile. Just looking at the record low highs in July, there are a lot of low 70s and upper 60s which are -20 departures, but I'm willing to bet those are mostly rainy days where the overnight lows are held up.

Good point and I agree that -20F highs probably were matched with near normal lows on those days. Well, I'd be interested in comparing apples to apples for summer and winter over the past 20-30 years and see, for example, how often a 2SD, 3SD or larger departure occurred. Just based on my (probably biased) memory, getting such positive departures in winter has happened more frequently than negative departures in summer.

We heard all about the Seattle snowstorm, but I don't think they've actually had much of a parade of storms this year. Jan was above average precip in Seattle, but Dec was well below average.

Hence the benefit of such loose semantics in a forecast..."frequent winter storms". Hard not to verify that forecast in the Pacific NW during winter when it often rains nearly daily.

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we should be in the yellow

Ugh........this doesn't sound right.......

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-053-054-WVZ053-090415-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.100209T1700Z-100211T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.100209T1700Z-100211T0000Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-

NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-LOUDOUN-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-JEFFERSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...

WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...

LEESBURG...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...CHARLES TOWN

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY

TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY

AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY

NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING

NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS

WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS AND POSSIBLY DEADLY.

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were we this sad in 2008-09?....the 1/27 event was nice, but that was pretty much a non snow winter until 3/1?....or because it was cold we didnt give up?

I was. Only being on the boards for a little while I was still learning. I relied to heavily on people who thought they knew stuff and was easily swayed. Now I can take this winter of fail in stride better. I'm still bummed but not to the same degree. If it were cold and dry this year it might be different but to be honest it's hard to get upset at our missed chances this time cause they really never had a shot to begin with. It just been too dang warm.

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The standard deviation is so much higher now than in the summer that comparing the magnitude of departures is kind of futile. Just looking at the record low highs in July, there are a lot of low 70s and upper 60s which are -20 departures, but I'm willing to bet those are mostly rainy days where the overnight lows are held up.

I agree with both of your points. Regarding the first, consider that the historical average maximum temperature range in DC in January is 27.3 degrees -- from an average maximum of only 29.7 in January 1919 to an average maximum of 57.0 in January 1950. In July, on the other hand, the corresponding range is just 13.0 degrees -- from an average maximum of 80.6 in July 1891 to an average maximum of 93.6 last July. Regarding the second point, I recall a number of cool rainy summer days, but not cool sunny summer days. The most extreme I recall is June 3, 1997, when the maximum was only 58 degrees -- about a 23 degree departure. However, there was 0.54 inches of rain that day and the minimum temperature was just five degrees below the maximum.

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Like I'm sure is the case with a lot of members here, I'm seen as the go-to guy for a weather forecast at my office. I gained a reputation for telling the staff that there would be no snow from 12/25-26/2010, even as talk when we broke for the holiday was a major snowstorm was possible. When LWX hoisted the WSW's for 6-10" on Christmas Eve, I was getting texts joking about my "forecast." I just replied with winks.

Last year, when the talk was still of rain for the 1/26 storm, I was advising the boss not to schedule appointments with suppliers from overseas for that afternoon, and ultimately persuaded him to close the business early that day, and as a result, we all got home ahead of the disaster with that evening commute.

I also told several friends at work on 10/21 that we might see a snowfall before Halloween. That was pretty satisfying when it verified. Last week, I was asked when we would see some snow on the ground, and I said hopefully for Super Bowl Sunday. The warmth this week brought about more ribbing. I could really use some of that neige the GGEM was spitting out today. :ph34r:

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If this weekends event fails apart at the last minute it will get very ugly in here. Lots of #2ing going on for what just a couple of years ago would be a totally meh event

Surprisingly the word 'meh' has not even appeared anywhere regarding this weekend. I imagine if it is a bust or just another dusting we will see it in the post-game analysis So much for this winter. Anyway, a few small events will make the month fly by and we will be complaining about the cold Spring soon enough. (At least I will.)

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I am looking out of my back window at a large cloud of midges, flying around in the clear evening sunlight. If we don't get a decent cold snap in Feb, this summer is going to suck, bug-wise.

Cyonara 9.7 will do the trick - perimeter treatment. Although that won't help if you're outside lol

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