mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I know...and I am laughing back...you're funny Good deal, happy Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Good deal, happy Friday! You too....have a nice weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm defending the process of how we dealt with this stuff years ago...back when the board was a bit more fun than it is now....that dude turned me off when he made some comments on 40s....to be honest I'm not sure why you and Andy have such a hard on for BB but no matter...I am not relevant on this board anymore...not that I ever was...but it just seems odd to me....and not really fun. peace I'm lonely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think you pegged this well in one of your posts yesterday. It really is embarrassing. im a huge skeptic of long range forecasting -- at least out past like 2-4 weeks and 4 is really pushing it. i think there are a handful of people who have had enough success from year to year that they may be onto something tho even with most of them some of the methodology is pretty questionable imo. bb may be on to something.. i don't have any skil in that area whatsoever outside being able to play around with climo numbers and enso etc to make some sort of random guess. from what i've seen a lot of it is pretty iffy and even the best at it are pretty good at spin to make their initial forecast easier to verify. but bb has a long history of just trying to get people to give him attention.. hard to say if this is something else. alas, the whole episode may no longer just be embarrasing to him. i don't think there is necessarily a need to hammer away nonstop until you get an answer like some others do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Exactly....and all we did was make fun....fun being the key word...seriously if BB was able to back up his ideas with some serious science....how many of us would really know...this is some funny s hit and I honestly am wondering if it's all a joke. You mean like the time Jim Hughes left because he was humiliated over his El Nino call? Or we enraged Jeb to the point where he was threatening to shoot up the conference. All in good fun. Thing is, this group has always been like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm lonely You know I like you...I was one of the first to talk to you way back....I hope it snows soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 im a huge skeptic of long range forecasting -- at least out past like 2-4 weeks and 4 is really pushing it. i think there are a handful of people who have had enough success from year to year that they may be onto something tho even with most of them some of the methodology is pretty questionable imo. bb may be on to something.. i don't have any skil in that area whatsoever outside being able to play around with climo numbers and enso etc to make some sort of random guess. from what i've seen a lot of it is pretty iffy and even the best at it are pretty good at spin to make their initial forecast easier to verify. but bb has a long history of just trying to get people to give him attention.. hard to say if this is something else. alas, the whole episode may no longer just be embarrasing to him. i don't think there is necessarily a need to hammer away nonstop until you get an answer like some others do. Might want to step in somewhere around grandiose announcement of leaving/never returning and creepily-cryptic statements about what might happen at the next conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 One thing I noticed, the explanation from the red-taggers of why BB is off has made for some good reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You mean like the time Jim Hughes left because he was humiliated over his El Nino call? Or we enraged Jeb to the point where he was threatening to shoot up the conference. All in good fun. Thing is, this group has always been like this. I see your point...still feels different...I am not arguing the end results...just the process being different...anyhow I have posted more today than I have in months...I need to shower now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You know I like you...I was one of the first to talk to you way back....I hope it snows soon You don't like me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You know I like you...I was one of the first to talk to you way back....I hope it snows soon you popped my conf cherry and I will fondly remember that. And I would like snow too as we all do. Not sure how well it will stick, the ground is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You don't like me Ha...I probably would but I haven't met you yet..perhaps one day..I just don't live here much anymore like I used to..hard to get to know the newer people...newer as in the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Ha...I probably would but I haven't met you yet..perhaps one day..I just don't live here much anymore like I used to..hard to get to know the newer people...newer as in the last few years Come to the conference, you will see I am likable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I see your point...still feels different...I am not arguing the end results...just the process being different...anyhow I have posted more today than I have in months...I need to shower now The place's name changes but it's still the same tough crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wes, HM, Adam and DonS should do a joint presentation at this year's conference going into why the winter forecast busted for so many mets and how we can use the results to improve future forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The place's name changes but it's still the same tough crowd. We are the bar from the movie Airplane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wes, HM, Adam and DonS should do a joint presentation at this year's conference going into why the winter forecast busted for so many mets and how we can use the results to improve future forecasts. Wes and I posted back and forth a bit about thissome time ago. In my simpleton research, the big +AO anom in Nov and Dec was a glaring signal for temp trouble in Dec & Jan. Because I don't have knowledge or skill to understand why the AO did what it did, I can't add much more than just saying there were signs. I think if the root cause could be identified, there is a good bit of info to be gleaned as to why Dec/Jan were basically warm duds. Something happened at high latitudes (or somewhere in the northern hemisphere) during mid november that pushed the AO all the way to +4 by early December. That isn't a common occurance at all. It would be awesome if Wes, HM, Adam, and DonS did some research to the factors leading up to the anomalous event. I'm very interested. I didn't do the same research with strong -AO Nov/Decembers but looking at the monthlies, the AO signal behaves the same way in reverse. I'm just a weenie but I think there is something there to look into and it could possibly help making winter calls. At the very least it could potentially help making Dec-Jan temp calls. I do plan on pulling all the -AO Nov/Decembers where the index averaged -1 or more and runnning daily graphs and seasonal averages. It's probably worth the effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wes and I posted back and forth a bit about thissome time ago. In my simpleton research, the big +AO anom in Nov and Dec was a glaring signal for temp trouble in Dec & Jan. Because I don't have knowledge or skill to understand why the AO did what it did, I can't add much more than just saying there were signs. I think if the root cause could be identified, there is a good bit of info to be gleaned as to why Dec/Jan were basically warm duds. Something happened at high latitudes (or somewhere in the northern hemisphere) during mid november that pushed the AO all the way to +4 by early December. That isn't a common occurance at all. It would be awesome if Wes, HM, Adam, and DonS did some research to the factors leading up to the anomalous event. I'm very interested. I didn't do the same research with strong -AO Nov/Decembers but looking at the monthlies, the AO signal behaves the same way in reverse. I'm just a weenie but I think there is something there to look into and it could possibly help making winter calls. At the very least it could potentially help making Dec-Jan temp calls. I do plan on pulling all the -AO Nov/Decembers where the index averaged -1 or more and runnning daily graphs and seasonal averages. It's probably worth the effort. I think you'll find the strong negative ao events also are pretty stable. Don S. did something on that during 2009-2010. I don't really know what led to the strong vortex but know when I see one to be pretty cautious about forecasting a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Double barrel 1045 canadian HP BB is trying to make "barrel" the new atmos. buzz word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Do we get to count this as a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Randy's gonna have to buy a boat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Do we get to count this as a torch? Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This winter has not sucked. This winter has swallowed. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 We need to start a new thread. "Looking Forward to Spring..." sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am telling it like it is. The true hurts sometimes doesn't it? I am very disappointed myself. Constant let downs and to me horrible pattern we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes, we are coming into a more favorable pattern. I still believe we will get snow. Where we stand now and to what has happend so far has stunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong, but in 2009-2010 winter, each of our big snowstorms was preceded by a major snow in Iowa about 5-7 days earlier. If Iowa gets a nice snowfall this week, it may be a signal that our storm is coming about 5-7 days later. I know, this is quite a stretch, but I seem to recall that correlation in the 2009-2010 winter. Disclaimer: I am a snow starved weenie grasping at straws here and I do not have a mathematical formula or even the time necessary to go back and find the exact dates of the Iowa snowfalls prior to each of the DC snowfalls that winter. Just a correlation I seem to recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am in Stage 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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