Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I'm sure your wife appreciates that We're both working from home today and she was standing behind me when I posted it. She said she's having some of those same thoughts right now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 We're both working from home today and she was standing behind me when I posted it. She said she's having some of those same thoughts right now....... I can imagine lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 We're both working from home today and she was standing behind me when I posted it. She said she's having some of those same thoughts right now....... Those thoughts will disappear when the flower delivery guys drops off the dozen apology roses you just bought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Ellinwood -- what do you think of our severe threat tonight? I know its not much, but anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Came for non-winter banter - left satisfied. Shouldn't this crap be in OT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 at least bb is helping shine light on other dopes that post in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 at least bb is helping shine light on other dopes that post in this forum He is building quite the fan base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 at least bb is helping shine light on other dopes that post in this forum He is their leader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 He is building quite the fan base you (the global you) have to be right consistently for it to mean anything. amwx has lots of gullible folks it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Ellinwood -- what do you think of our severe threat tonight? I know its not much, but anything? some copypasta from my blog: The synoptic setup is somewhat favorable for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado or two tonight into early tomorrow in the southern Mid-Atlantic as storms ahead of a cold front push through the region. Poor lapse rates will likely prevent severe weather from occurring in DC, Baltimore and points north and west. The storm system will be what we typically see for severe weather setups in the Mid-Atlantic during the winter and early spring… low CAPE/high shear. This system was looking fairly marginal for the region up to this morning due to the poor mid-level lapse rates, but it appears that the previously under-forecast dynamics will help introduce better lapse rates to the southern Mid-Atlantic. It is still fairly borderline, but with a strengthening low-level jet producing 50-60 kt. winds at 925mb it wouldn’t take much to bring those damaging winds to the surface. ... I am mostly in agreement with [the SPC], but I would tone it down to a SEE TEXT instead of a Slight Risk north of the NC/VA border as the storms don't look to be terribly organized, which is something you want to see for a Mid-Atlantic low CAPE/high shear system (at least for the damaging wind potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 you (the global you) have to be right consistently for it to mean anything. amwx has lots of gullible folks it seems. Either they are ridiculously gullible, or just that desperate for snow they will hump whoever is calling for the most snow, even if it is a first year met student who makes up his own formulas to validate his forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Either they are ridiculously gullible, or just that desperate for snow they will hump whoever is calling for the most snow, even if it is a first year met student who makes up his own formulas to validate his forecasts. But it was tested 3 times!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Either they are ridiculously gullible, or just that desperate for snow they will hump whoever is calling for the most snow, even if it is a first year met student who makes up his own formulas to validate his forecasts. Actually, snow is falling now... ...in liquid form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Actually, snow is falling now... ...in liquid form. I have my shovel ready. THANK YOU SNO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I have my shovel ready. THANK YOU SNO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Either they are ridiculously gullible, or just that desperate for snow they will hump whoever is calling for the most snow, even if it is a first year met student who makes up his own formulas to validate his forecasts. Or maybe we're just not spending our day waiting to pounce on someone on a message board. I just think it's really unbecoming for people to act the way some do at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Or maybe we're just not spending our day waiting to pounce on someone on a message board. I just think it's really unbecoming for people to act the way some do at times. Sorry if some question posters who make big calls for things to back their claims up. If SNO had written out some long azz post would you then come to his defense? Everything that has been asked of BB in his thread has been legit questions for his formula. Don't get all pissy at those who question and try to get people to explain themselves. BB has a history that plays into it but it doesn't mean he gets a pass. He gets it right then I will give him his props. That I guarantee will happen. We will see which happens, 30" of Bethesda snow or 30" of fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Sorry if some question posters who make big calls for things to back their claims up. If SNO had written out some long azz post would you then come to his defense? Everything that has been asked of BB in his thread has been legit questions for his formula. Don't get all pissy at those who question and try to get people to explain themselves. BB has a history that plays into it but it doesn't mean he gets a pass. He gets it right then I will give him his props. That I guarantee will happen. We will see which happens, 30" of Bethesda snow or 30" of fail. Look...I'm not hanging my hat on that forecast verifying, simply because it's so far removed from what we see around here on any basis (let alone in a year that has gone the way it has so far). The simple truth is that I know jack s**t about forecasting (and would never claim to), and perhaps that's why I'm not as willing to jump down his throat for posting something that - quite frankly - seems fantastical. But I do know when something just doesn't *feel* right, and some of the reactions to his forecast posts just don't feel right to me. I don't have any issue with people questioning his methodology, but to attack him the way he's been attacked by some is really unfortunate. That's all I'm trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Or maybe we're just not spending our day waiting to pounce on someone on a message board. I just think it's really unbecoming for people to act the way some do at times. Yup, I sat at my computer today at work and hit refresh waiting for BB to post so I could rip him to shreds. You caught me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Look...I'm not hanging my hat on that forecast verifying, simply because it's so far removed from what we see around here on any basis (let alone in a year that has gone the way it has so far). The simple truth is that I know jack s**t about forecasting (and would never claim to), and perhaps that's why I'm not as willing to jump down his throat for posting something that - quite frankly - seems fantastical. But I do know when something just doesn't *feel* right, and some of the reactions to his forecast posts just don't feel right to me. I don't have any issue with people questioning his methodology, but to attack him the way he's been attacked by some is really unfortunate. That's all I'm trying to say. He is no victim. Let's get that clear before we go any further. I am just not the type of person who is just going to let bombastic statements fly. If he is right then he can stick it in my face. But if he has half assed this forecast then I want him to get the point that things need to be checked, checked and re-checked many times over before coming out with claims that his forecast will work. I don't know if any met will admit that there will ultimately be a "magic bullet" theory that will explain all weather and therefore predict it before it happens. I personally think it is impossible. And saying Wes attacked him using DonS info is the lowest of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 18Z GFS has me somewhat intrigued as we go into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 60s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Feb 9 b-day storm. Book it. Maybe right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 He is no victim. Let's get that clear before we go any further. I am just not the type of person who is just going to let bombastic statements fly. If he is right then he can stick it in my face. But if he has half assed this forecast then I want him to get the point that things need to be checked, checked and re-checked many times over before coming out with claims that his forecast will work. I don't know if any met will admit that there will ultimately be a "magic bullet" theory that will explain all weather and therefore predict it before it happens. I personally think it is impossible. And saying Wes attacked him using DonS info is the lowest of the low. I like weather and all (or else I wouldn't have 1000+ posts here), but perhaps I don't care enough about weather and the science behind it to get so worked up (and that's not a dig at those for whom weather is a real passion). I just don't like seeing people being nasty, especially in relative anonymity while sitting behind a keyboard. No doubt he's being attacked by some, and legitimately questioned by others. Wes being the latter of the two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I like weather and all (or else I wouldn't have 1000+ posts here), but perhaps I don't care enough about weather and the science behind it to get so worked up (and that's not a dig at those for whom weather is a real passion). I just don't like seeing people being nasty, especially in relative anonymity while sitting behind a keyboard. No doubt he's being attacked by some, and legitimately questioned by others. Wes being the latter of the two! I think you are right. The attacking actually makes the threads even more difficult to read than the weenie posts, because it leads to endless pointless back and forth "he said", "she said" arguments. But, I guess when the winter weather is as bad as it's been, you get the bottom of the barrel weenie post followed by 6-7 attacks, followed by 6-7 defensive posts from the original weenie. I guess it's hard for some to stay on track with the weather, when there is no significant winter weather to speak of. Typically it's the weenies who "attack" the other "weenies" and the red tags who tend to offer constructive criticism. I just see the weenie posts and attacks as pure entertainment, while others around here seem to take things far to seriously. I mean we certainly haven't had a reason to be in "storm mode" this year on the boards, and frankly I wish Ji would just go hog wild with his trolling until the weather gets fairly interesting again. That being said the 18Z GFS cries wolf again in the long range, and as gullible as I am, I'll be blindly following it for the next week.... again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I like weather and all (or else I wouldn't have 1000+ posts here), but perhaps I don't care enough about weather and the science behind it to get so worked up (and that's not a dig at those for whom weather is a real passion). I just don't like seeing people being nasty, especially in relative anonymity while sitting behind a keyboard. No doubt he's being attacked by some, and legitimately questioned by others. Wes being the latter of the two! I'm pretty well done with the discussion. I don't see much scientific merit in his ideas though he could still end up verifying decently as none us really know what is going to happen. I'm just glad the discussion is now confined to one thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I like weather and all (or else I wouldn't have 1000+ posts here), but perhaps I don't care enough about weather and the science behind it to get so worked up (and that's not a dig at those for whom weather is a real passion). I just don't like seeing people being nasty, especially in relative anonymity while sitting behind a keyboard. No doubt he's being attacked by some, and legitimately questioned by others. Wes being the latter of the two! It's so easy to say this when you are anon behind your computer. But feel free to jump on the BB bandwagon. We won't judge you too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If BB is right I'll self deport myself to easternuswx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 00z GFS is super cali fragilistic expisuckidocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 00z GFS is super cali fragilistic expisuckidocious Yeah it really amps that western ridge this run and lets the fun and games begin. 0z GFS says this winter won't go out without a serious fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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