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2012 Winter Banter Thread #2

yoda

By yoda,
in Mid Atlantic

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

We're both working from home today and she was standing behind me when I posted it. She said she's having some of those same thoughts right now.......

Those thoughts will disappear when the flower delivery guys drops off the dozen apology roses you just bought. ;)

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Ellinwood -- what do you think of our severe threat tonight? :lol: I know its not much, but anything?

some copypasta from my blog:

The synoptic setup is somewhat favorable for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado or two tonight into early tomorrow in the southern Mid-Atlantic as storms ahead of a cold front push through the region. Poor lapse rates will likely prevent severe weather from occurring in DC, Baltimore and points north and west.

The storm system will be what we typically see for severe weather setups in the Mid-Atlantic during the winter and early spring… low CAPE/high shear. This system was looking fairly marginal for the region up to this morning due to the poor mid-level lapse rates, but it appears that the previously under-forecast dynamics will help introduce better lapse rates to the southern Mid-Atlantic. It is still fairly borderline, but with a strengthening low-level jet producing 50-60 kt. winds at 925mb it wouldn’t take much to bring those damaging winds to the surface.

...

I am mostly in agreement with [the SPC], but I would tone it down to a SEE TEXT instead of a Slight Risk north of the NC/VA border as the storms don't look to be terribly organized, which is something you want to see for a Mid-Atlantic low CAPE/high shear system (at least for the damaging wind potential).

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mappy

mappy

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you (the global you) have to be right consistently for it to mean anything. amwx has lots of gullible folks it seems.

Either they are ridiculously gullible, or just that desperate for snow they will hump whoever is calling for the most snow, even if it is a first year met student who makes up his own formulas to validate his forecasts.

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H2O

H2O

Posted
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Either they are ridiculously gullible, or just that desperate for snow they will hump whoever is calling for the most snow, even if it is a first year met student who makes up his own formulas to validate his forecasts.

But it was tested 3 times!!!

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FrederickWX

FrederickWX

Posted
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Either they are ridiculously gullible, or just that desperate for snow they will hump whoever is calling for the most snow, even if it is a first year met student who makes up his own formulas to validate his forecasts.

Actually, snow is falling now...

...in liquid form.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
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Either they are ridiculously gullible, or just that desperate for snow they will hump whoever is calling for the most snow, even if it is a first year met student who makes up his own formulas to validate his forecasts.

Or maybe we're just not spending our day waiting to pounce on someone on a message board. I just think it's really unbecoming for people to act the way some do at times.

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H2O

H2O

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Or maybe we're just not spending our day waiting to pounce on someone on a message board. I just think it's really unbecoming for people to act the way some do at times.

Sorry if some question posters who make big calls for things to back their claims up. If SNO had written out some long azz post would you then come to his defense?

Everything that has been asked of BB in his thread has been legit questions for his formula. Don't get all pissy at those who question and try to get people to explain themselves.

BB has a history that plays into it but it doesn't mean he gets a pass. He gets it right then I will give him his props. That I guarantee will happen. We will see which happens, 30" of Bethesda snow or 30" of fail.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
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Sorry if some question posters who make big calls for things to back their claims up. If SNO had written out some long azz post would you then come to his defense?

Everything that has been asked of BB in his thread has been legit questions for his formula. Don't get all pissy at those who question and try to get people to explain themselves.

BB has a history that plays into it but it doesn't mean he gets a pass. He gets it right then I will give him his props. That I guarantee will happen. We will see which happens, 30" of Bethesda snow or 30" of fail.

Look...I'm not hanging my hat on that forecast verifying, simply because it's so far removed from what we see around here on any basis (let alone in a year that has gone the way it has so far). The simple truth is that I know jack s**t about forecasting (and would never claim to), and perhaps that's why I'm not as willing to jump down his throat for posting something that - quite frankly - seems fantastical.

But I do know when something just doesn't *feel* right, and some of the reactions to his forecast posts just don't feel right to me. I don't have any issue with people questioning his methodology, but to attack him the way he's been attacked by some is really unfortunate. That's all I'm trying to say.

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mappy

mappy

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Or maybe we're just not spending our day waiting to pounce on someone on a message board. I just think it's really unbecoming for people to act the way some do at times.

Yup, I sat at my computer today at work and hit refresh waiting for BB to post so I could rip him to shreds. You caught me.

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

Look...I'm not hanging my hat on that forecast verifying, simply because it's so far removed from what we see around here on any basis (let alone in a year that has gone the way it has so far). The simple truth is that I know jack s**t about forecasting (and would never claim to), and perhaps that's why I'm not as willing to jump down his throat for posting something that - quite frankly - seems fantastical.

But I do know when something just doesn't *feel* right, and some of the reactions to his forecast posts just don't feel right to me. I don't have any issue with people questioning his methodology, but to attack him the way he's been attacked by some is really unfortunate. That's all I'm trying to say.

He is no victim. Let's get that clear before we go any further.

I am just not the type of person who is just going to let bombastic statements fly. If he is right then he can stick it in my face. But if he has half assed this forecast then I want him to get the point that things need to be checked, checked and re-checked many times over before coming out with claims that his forecast will work. I don't know if any met will admit that there will ultimately be a "magic bullet" theory that will explain all weather and therefore predict it before it happens. I personally think it is impossible.

And saying Wes attacked him using DonS info is the lowest of the low. :P

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