H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 SNO taught me not to specify precip type or lack of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 DC folks, is there a list of seasonal snowfall list for your area over say this past 30 years. I am curious to see after a stinker of a winter does another stinker follow or do you make up for it the next winter. For RDU area it's almost always another stinker. It varies. The lowest seasonal snow total in DC history is 0.1 inch in both 1972-73 and 1997-98. In 1973-74, 16.7 inches was recorded; and in 1998-99, 11.6 inches was recorded. However, another season near the bottom was 2001-02 when only 3.2 inches was recorded, but that was followed by 40.4 inches in 2002-03. And, in 2008-09, only 7.5 inches was recorded, but that was followed by the record-breaking 56.1 inches in 2009-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Quoted for possible (see: likely) future lolz: Anything we get over the next 10-15 days is just a bonus in my opinion, I'm not changing my thoughts at all: 1) Transition period is January 30th to February 7th, pattern will be "hit and run" here in the MA. Models will begin showing 'fantasies' in the long range starting on the 5th-7th period. MJO shifts into octants 6 and 7 as upward motion becomes eastward predominate. SSTAs in the EPAC and tropical Atlantic warm, Atlantic ENSO being in La Nina mode will shut down a complete loop, though. 2) MJO makes the first healthy transition into Octant 8 mid Month, pattern becomes rapidly better as +PNA strengthens, vortex in Alaska takes a hit and retrogrades Westward, ridging pushes to the pole or near it by the 20th. Trough develops from the great lakes, TN valley, south-central US, to the east coast. 3). Strong, full-phasing coastal storms begin in earnest between the 12th and the 23rd, cold air will be easily attainable and adequate in availability. MJO will push into octant 1. 4). Total snow in the DC/Baltimore corridor from February 12th to April 5th will be 20-40", with one storm late month tracking farther east and shafting folks west of the blue ridge. 5). There should be a 10 day 'break' from late month to March 5th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Quoted for possible (see: likely) future lolz: Yes, but you have to give credit for scientific reasoning. Not just randomly picking some date in time and saying mark your calendar. Personally, I hope bb is spot on with the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 BB or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 He took a step back from his previous "we will see +30 inches" call earlier this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 It varies. The lowest seasonal snow total in DC history is 0.1 inch in both 1972-73 and 1997-98. In 1973-74, 16.7 inches was recorded; and in 1998-99, 11.6 inches was recorded. However, another season near the bottom was 2001-02 when only 3.2 inches was recorded, but that was followed by 40.4 inches in 2002-03. And, in 2008-09, only 7.5 inches was recorded, but that was followed by the record-breaking 56.1 inches in 2009-10. Interesting, so taking one on the chin this winter could bode well for you guys next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yes, but you have to give credit for "scientific reasoning." Not just randomly picking some date in time and saying mark your calendar. Personally, I hope bb is spot on with the call. FYP All coming from a college freshman... I wonder what would happen if he stated his February thoughts and reasoning to the main forecasting professor(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yes, but you have to give credit for scientific reasoning. Not just randomly picking some date in time and saying mark your calendar. Personally, I hope bb is spot on with the call. Eh...I'd call it "science-y" reasoning. Sounds like science, but raises a lot of eyebrows. I think any of the super long-range specific forecasting is suspect. Yes HM is a great met who knows a lot and has actually been right on some of those calls, but I still doubtful how much is coincedence vs. skill. This line from Bethesda's post has me scratching my head.. upward motion becomes eastward predominate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Eh...I'd call it "science-y" reasoning. Sounds like science, but raises a lot of eyebrows. I think any of the super long-range specific forecasting is suspect. Yes HM is a great met who knows a lot and has actually been right on some of those calls, but I still doubtful how much is coincedence vs. skill. This line from Bethesda's post has me scratching my head.. That's cause you are not smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 FYP All coming from a college freshman... I wonder what would happen if he stated his February thoughts and reasoning to the main forecasting professor(s). Heh, as long as he did it anonymously and didn't handwrite it he would be fine. I like bold calls though. They're kinda fun. I'll never make one because my brain only works using odds and stats. I was a decent better at one point in my life. I always used to laugh at one of my friends we nicknamed Longshot Larry. I stopped laughing when he hit a $50 8 team parlay (true parlay against the spread) and collected $7,500. BB's call is probably the equivalent of a 10 game parlay against the spread and I hope he hits it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 That's cause you are not smart. Must be that. But I could bang out a sweet sounding, acronym laden, science-y "forecast" for next year if you want me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Must be that. But I could bang out a sweet sounding, acronym laden, science-y "forecast" for next year if you want me too. Yes, please. I'll move you up on the likable list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 P.S. I give props to Bethesda for at least trying some science-y reasoning and going bold on his call. SNO's forecast didn't even have science-y reasoning and he was only calling for a SECS during our climo snowiest period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 That's cause you are not smart. Why are you trying to steal my avatar, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Why are you trying to steal my avatar, lol. Why are you posting in this subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Eh...I'd call it "science-y" reasoning. Sounds like science, but raises a lot of eyebrows. I think any of the super long-range specific forecasting is suspect. Yes HM is a great met who knows a lot and has actually been right on some of those calls, but I still doubtful how much is coincedence vs. skill. This line from Bethesda's post has me scratching my head.. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yes, please. I'll move you up on the likable list Get Fozz to make a "On a Scale of 1-6 How Much Do You Like WxUSAF" thread in OT? I doubt it would get to 20+ pages like yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Get Fozz to make a "On a Scale of 1-6 How Much Do You Like WxUSAF" thread in OT? I doubt it would get to 20+ pages like yours. It wasn't 20+ pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Eh...I'd call it "science-y" reasoning. Sounds like science, but raises a lot of eyebrows. I think any of the super long-range specific forecasting is suspect. Yes HM is a great met who knows a lot and has actually been right on some of those calls, but I still doubtful how much is coincedence vs. skill. This line from Bethesda's post has me scratching my head.. I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek. Sounds good and all but....well.....you know what I'm thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 P.S. I give props to Bethesda for at least trying some science-y reasoning and going bold on his call. SNO's forecast didn't even have science-y reasoning and he was only calling for a SECS during our climo snowiest period. Big calls with little science is = to big calls with science used inaccurately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Why are you trying to steal my avatar, lol. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 ? He was trying to be funny - I guess since my new avatar is a picture of a shoreline and water, he felt the need to say I was stealing his. Its okay, he sent me a PM saying he was just kidding, that he loves the picture but cannot say that here as he is 5 posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 He was trying to be funny - I guess since my new avatar is a picture of a shoreline and water, he felt the need to say I was stealing his. Its okay, he sent me a PM saying he was just kidding, that he loves the picture but cannot say that here as he is 5 posted. Ok, was confused a bit as i still see the torchy guy and it is not updating here at work. gotta treasure those 5 daily posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 bb keeps shifting the goalposts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 bb keeps shifting the goalposts DUH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 DUH soon we can expect 30" between begin april and end june Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I'll laugh if we get over 40 inches and everyone is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 even if bb's call verifies i wont give him credit.. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 soon we can expect 30" between begin april and end june well its not even that he added April to the mix, but he also added the "20" part... in previous calls it was always "30+ inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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