ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 9:17 PM, mapgirl said: You know its pretty bad around here when Matt goes off to SNE and creates a thread there to talk about their snow. traitor I admire Matt's tenacity. He obviously has his priorities in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thankfully in DC it only takes one big storm to get us close to average for the year, so although it's been disappointing not having much to discuss in the winter weather department, I will still optimistically look toward February for something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:49 AM, zwyts said: To some extent I agree maybe it's kind of been like a strong niño but without the active STJ so even worse. I do think in a niño we'd have more ridging over AK and of course it has been a big +EPO. The good February's in a niño usually come from a good pacific so that is going to have to change. im not an enso expert but outside some oddities it seems like a nina to me--or at least not as much "not a nina" as has been the story from a number of folks. fast flow.. warm to cold to warm etc. it has been fairly wet, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:21 AM, mapgirl said: Why don't you wait until the torch takes place before you say it's ordinary. You better hope the gfs surface temps are wrong cause 40-50 ain't much of a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:27 AM, Ian said: truncation is at 180.. the snow for most east of the apps (n md) is between then and like 186. and it's probably very little as it switches to 12hr precip totals. I was thinking that had changed. Did they just add in the three hour times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:11 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I was thinking that had changed. Did they just add in the three hour times? i guess you can pull up the 6 hr panel without temps.. but on the mslp_temp one it switches to 12 after 180. looking at 6 hr of 186 there is no precip so at least east of the apps there might not even be any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 12:39 AM, zwyts said: I've said this several times this winter and it is still a guess since I don't have the science or experience to back it up but I think the Atlantic has to change 1st and lead the way and there are some signs that will happen. The PAC side is a nightmare and no matter what short term changes we get it always wants to snap back into default position with a vortex in the gulf of Alaska and a ridge over the Aleutians. I've read and heard so many debate the chicken vs egg wrt whether we need the ATL to set up right or the PAC to get it's act in order for us to get a reasonable pattern. I'm with you in that the Atlantic has to lead and improve. Not too many of our good, i.e. big snows were PAC driven. There are some I'm sure but We need -NAO/AO to be in business. All these pseudo/transient looks have to disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:11 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I was thinking that had changed. Did they just add in the three hour times? The actual truncation occurs at 192h. It was changed from 180h to 192h when we to t574 resolution in July 2010. I'd link the tin, but I'm on my mobile. The information is available from the Ncep/emc webpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 ok, guess i was wrong.. but the truncation part is actually meaningless to the point of the post anyway. maybe i've never cycled through 180.. it just looks weird when it jumps from 6 hr precip to 12 hr when you're still cycling through 6 hr panels (180-186). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:18 AM, Ian said: ok, guess i was wrong.. but the truncation part is actually meaningless to the point of the post anyway. maybe i've never cycled through 180.. it just looks weird when it jumps from 6 hr precip to 12 hr when you're still cycling through 6 hr panels (180-186). I was just providing a clarifying answer. It's possible they still generate low resolution post processed files and graphics after 180h....I don't waste time looking at the deterministic output past 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Warm and windy here. That should eat up most of the snowpack if it makes it to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 4:36 AM, dtk said: I was just providing a clarifying answer. It's possible they still generate low resolution post processed files and graphics after 180h....I don't waste time looking at the deterministic output past 7 days. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php If I am reading it right they extended the High Resolution to 192Hr in July of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 5:43 AM, Amped said: Warm and windy here. That should eat up most of the snowpack if it makes it to ORH. Minimal damage here after just a few hours above freezing. Upslope snow now in progress. I doubt Will lost his snowpack out to the east in ORH but thanks for caring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 11:24 AM, ski MRG said: Minimal damage here after just a few hours above freezing. Upslope snow now in progress. I doubt Will lost his snowpack out to the east in ORH but thanks for caring. Ignore him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 10:00 AM, showmethesnow said: http://www.emc.ncep....ov/GFS/impl.php If I am reading it right they extended the High Resolution to 192Hr in July of 2010. We did (see my previous post). It's possible that when we made that change in the model itself that something wasn't correspondingly changed with the model output/graphics. (that stuff is out of our control). Though, I just looked at the MAG for the latest GFS, and they are creating higher-res graphics in 3 hourly intervals out to 192....so it's consistent. Oh how I wish we didn't run the week 2, low resolution deterministic GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 12:19 PM, dtk said: Oh how I wish we didn't run the week 2, low resolution deterministic GFS..... But then you wouldn't get maps like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Little snow burst up here in Frederick. My girls are running around all excited, I will let them have their excitment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:08 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: You better hope the gfs surface temps are wrong cause 40-50 ain't much of a torch. In case you didn't read this in the other thread, here is zwyts take on next weeks torch: On 1/17/2012 at 10:57 PM, zwyts said: too much modified arctic air around and with the fast flow, almost impossible not to get a cold front in a 10 day period....over a shorter period, I guess it is possible...you can still get a long stretch of + departures but there will be 1-day, 2-day periods where you are +5 instead of +23...I think we will see that come to fruition next week...probably only 3 torchy afternoon highs in row at one time before we get a 45-50 Max thrown in there....I envision something loosely like this 61, 68, 64, 48, 46, 57, 74, 59, 43, 40 and probably 1 of those is a cheap midnight max....you still get a 10-day period of +13 to 15 departures but a few days don't feel as torchy If you wish to continue to talk about how the torch isn't going to be "that much" then you can troll zwyts too while you are at it. His thoughts are realistic and on par with what I have seen from those who are forecasting the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This thread and this winter has made my avatar cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:17 PM, stormtracker said: This thread and this winter has made my avatar cry. I was looking for something on the guidance to make your avatar smile but alas, the 06Z gefs ens mean looks crappy at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:17 PM, stormtracker said: This thread and this winter has made my avatar cry. Cheer up, Buckaroo. It'll happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:17 PM, stormtracker said: This thread and this winter has made my avatar cry. This made me go WTF seriously -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif (Yes, I know its a 384 map.. just note where the low is going) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:22 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Cheer up, Buckaroo. It'll happen again. In 2077 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:22 PM, yoda said: This made me go WTF seriously -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif (Yes, I know its a 384 map.. just note where the low is going) 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:31 PM, stormtracker said: 'copter Though it is frickin' cold behind that low as that 1050 H comes in... pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:17 PM, stormtracker said: This thread and this winter has made my avatar cry. thats great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:31 PM, stormtracker said: In 2077 You're probably right, but I can't stop staring at those frozen bay pictures. As frustrating as it was to get snow (until '79, of course), a couple of those winters of the '70's were incredible for cold. I'm thinking road trip to the Honi Honi for a happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:22 PM, yoda said: This made me go WTF seriously -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif (Yes, I know its a 384 map.. just note where the low is going) Good looking CAD signature. (make sure your sarc meter is on and turned up to high...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lolz http://www.gq.com/news-politics/politics/201202/50-most-powerful-people-in-washington-dc?mobify=0#slide=38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 3:38 PM, Ian said: lolz http://www.gq.com/ne...bify=0#slide=38 I am a bit torn between saying nice or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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