jiksports Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow, that's close: BTW, this is when the precip ends. It looks like light snow, to moderate sleet, to moderate rain, to light snow between 7AM and 7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 careful, gfs on SV is a 3 hour prog with 6 hour precip, there isn't much left when everything crashes. Thanks....nice to see the gfs come in colder....in a crappy winter so far....I feel this is our best chance so far for a inch or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Curious to see the gfs have a reinforcing 1028 high which coming in behind the system which is why it trended colder truth? we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The GFS has been inconsistent with this. The reinforcement high dropping down was not shown in previous runs. Wait until 12z Euro comes out and that will give a better idea on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow, that's close: BTW, this is when the precip ends. It looks like light snow, to moderate sleet, to moderate rain, to light snow between 7AM and 7PM. Thinking about that looks re seasonable to me. I don't get the reinforcement shot of cold following the storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow, that's close: BTW, this is when the precip ends. It looks like light snow, to moderate sleet, to moderate rain, to light snow between 7AM and 7PM. we need a 75 hour skew t, sadly, none are available closest thing will be 78 hours on Twister Data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The UK is in line with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The models will adjust colder at the 850s as we get closer surface temps on the gfs for the sat event are a few degrees eithr side of 30 . this wil not trend warmer but colder . at no point this year was low level cold air involved , this time is different the models will trend colder not warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wonder if the GFS is seeing some of the changes that may lead to next week's torch being reduced...more blocking??? Not sure why it would have a 1028 high coming in when the torch was supposed to start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The UK is in line with the NAM. Ukie has been very good this winter, would side with it and the nam right now till further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thats a few degrees either side of 30 in CPK - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ukie has been very good this winter, would side with it and the nam right now till further notice. Of course you would - what basis to ever rely on NAM? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Of course you would - what basis to ever rely on NAM? Rossi The NAM has been much improved this winter, that's why. And the UKIE has been very good too. I am very suspect of the gfs' reinforcing HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The NAM has been much improved this winter, that's why. And the UKIE has been very good too. I am very suspect of the gfs' reinforcing HP. NAM has been poor the past 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This time you are dealing with low level dense cold air at the surface that the models always underestimate . Secondly the 850`s will trend south and more importantly surface temps will b adjusted downward as we get closer you will warm air advect and Snow will break out as far as ACY to start From i 80 and NYC north - inc north shore of LI and Coastal CT I think this is mostly Snow that may end as FRZ . i am of the belief this a typical model error when figuring out the strength of low level cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM has been poor the past 3 weeks. NAM is always poor with Snow as in past years. This year no snow to test its abilities. It usually has to catch up to the GFS/EURO. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The Nam is still in the long range. I would not take it seriously until it gets closer. The Ukie has been really warm for this upcoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM has been horrid. Poor or not good does not even describe it. I think the upgrades made it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What is your basis for saying this? Your are wishcasting. This time you are dealing with low level dense cold air at the surface that the models always underestimate . Secondly the 850`s will trend south and more importantly surface temps will b adjusted downward as we get closer you will warm air advect and Snow will break out as far as ACY to start From i 80 and NYC north - inc north shore of LI and Coastal CT I think this is mostly Snow that may end as FRZ . i am of the belief this a typical model error when figuring out the strength of low level cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM is better when it gets inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The Nam is still in the long range. I would not take it seriously until it gets closer. The Ukie has been really warm for this upcoming system. Ant -- Robbbs just supported your viewpoint on the other board and said this is a legitimate threat to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 we need a 75 hour skew t, sadly, none are available closest thing will be 78 hours on Twister Data Au contraire, mon frere. GFS BUFKIT KLGA Hour 75 sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Au contraire, mon frere. GFS BUFKIT KLGA Hour 75 sounding. nice!! yeah, that's def. still snow. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM has been horrid. Poor or not good does not even describe it. I think the upgrades made it worse. wrong. It is without a doubt improved. Like all models, it has ups and down, and yes, outside of 60 hours it is very jumpyt, but is overall from the upgrade to this point is absolutely improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The UK is in line with the NAM. The 12z UKMET and NAM would support snow in NYC, if precip came at 12z. The thing to watch for, is if the models are underdoing the WAA precip during the early morning hours, that would keep the column cooler longer and delay a changeover to rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM has been poor the past 3 weeks. it severely busted on the NE snow the past week-was way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The 12z UKMET and NAM would support snow in NYC, if precip came at 12z. The thing to watch for, is if the models are underdoing the WAA precip during the early morning hours, that would keep the column cooler longer and delay a changeover to rain: That would be the best scenario for getting some light accumulations at the coast before any changeover occurs. It's certainly cold enough for a snowy start should the precip begin earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not wishcasting .Think back to the past 2 Sundays when the models were beaten by the low level cold air . The models are notorious for not seeing low level dense air til inside 24- 48 hrs The numbers at the surface get beat with direct arcitc air for a reason , the model bias is to quickly warm the boundary layer and is usually right when its polar pacific air ( WHICH OVERWHELMED THE PATTERN IN NYC SINCE DEC ) , but it really has a hard time in low level air ( AND THIS TIME THE AIR IS ARCTIC IN NATURE and has been the last 2 weeks when the models missed those past wknd temps ive seen this happen a lot in my life following the weather here in NYC so i think we trend colder as the models start to see the temp busts in the midwest that will occur over the next 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM is always poor with Snow as in past years. This year no snow to test its abilities. It usually has to catch up to the GFS/EURO. Rossi ACY? Your kidding, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sometimes the heavy precipitation keeps dragging the cold air in place to it to allow it stay as snow and that is what happened with the 2/22/08 storm. If it the case then this could be mostly snow with some mixing with sleet before tapering to light sleet or freezing drizzle. Expect higher amounts of accumulation for even NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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