NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This is seriously starting to look like a high level advisory low level warning event for NYC and LI this weekend with 4-7 inches of front end WAA SN/+SN, followed by light amount of IP and ZR. A low grade warning event is looking much more likely if one blends the latest GFS, GGEM and EURO. It looks like 100 miles south of here is a cold rain, and 100 miles north is locked in with a 5-9 inch snowfall warning event. Polar high position and low track are great right now for a plowable wet snowfall for the entire NYC metro area. It is very similar to some of the winter 1999-2000 snow events that impacted the area. Nice solid moderate hit, without being paralyzing or shutting down the area. Do not really need those double digit disruptive snowfalls we had last two winters as that was too much... GFS is probably to aggressive with the phasing in this type of pattern GGEM is probably more realistic which 99 2000 storm this remind you of ? Here is a link to storms - for me it remind me of the Jan 22 , 2005 storm - a little warmer and not as intense http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1996/Weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The 0z Euro corrected warmer for the coast from 12z with a stronger onshore flow. Same warming pattern it has had all season leading up to the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 6Z GFS output at KEWR shows a close call on saturday - starts as frozen and temps warm up just enough to change to rain/sleet - since GFS is probably phasing to much this might be a couple degrees too warm - so a close call, Also notice Monday the 23rd - shows potential for early morning freezing rain - surfaces will be plenty cold after several days/nights of near or below freezing http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 We'll be shoveling or scaping off something from the ground come this weekend, that is likely. We'll get the grass covered with enough SN/IP/ZR to make it look like winter for the second time since the near miss 10/29/2011 unusual inland snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 We'll be shoveling or scaping off something from the ground come this weekend, that is likely. We'll get the grass covered with enough SN/IP/ZR to make it look like winter for the second time since the near miss 10/29/2011 unusual inland snow event. Don't be so sure. It's still more than 3 days out, we are already changing to rain on the progs and there is a STRONG seasonal trend to come north with time. And we all know how SWFEs just love to go north, even at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The event may come down to the typical overrunning precip timing fail the models often have. The 06Z GFS shows no measurable precip for NYC til hour 81, however; there is reason for me to believe based on these storms in the past that measurable precip could be falling by hour 75-77 or so when the GFS only shows precip into W NJ at best...the reason being you're barrelling moisture into a near 1030mb high and have great lift and moisture advection in the middle and upper levels. I agree. Whether precip comes in at 12z or 18z Saturday, will make the difference. Especially for the coastal areas I think if we don't see anything by 15z, this just sleet and rain for NYC and coastal areas. The 0z Euro has the 850mb low over over Ohio/PA border at 12z Sat. And we are still 72hrs away. I think NYC south will wind up as rain either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I wouldn't get excited at all unless this still looks like a threat in 24 or 36 hours. These have the major tendency in Nina patterns to trend north big time at the end and/or amplify. I remember a number of these threats from 07-08 that ended up nailing New England instead. If the snow/precip can come in fast enough, we might eek out some low-level accumulation but that's all I'd expect at most right now for most of the area. Inland areas might stay cold enough to have sleet/ZR for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Totally agree seasonal trends for these swfe have been to trend north consistently as we near closer to the event. Being that i live on long island (coastal area). Im expecting close to nothing with the higher totals being achieved upper hudson valley/ne nw nj and areas away from the coast of conneticut. The models have already been consistently moving north and warmer slightly with each run and the cold air entrenching can be underdone but it just doesnt look good for atleast the coastal areas as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2/18/00 and 2/22/08 are the 2 events I'm looking at right now as possible analogs. Ironically about 10 days ago I mentioned those very 2 events as the ones to look at as possible analogs for what we could see in the upcoming 2 weeks period. I doubt we'll see anything like 7 or 8 inches for the coast on Saturday but 4 or 5 would not surprise me so long as we do not see some sort of horrid trend in the way everything evolves. That is one of the analogs by CIPS for this storm. I agree. Whether precip comes in at 12z or 18z Saturday, will make the difference. Especially for the coastal areas I think if we don't see anything by 15z, this just sleet and rain for NYC and coastal areas. The 0z Euro has the 850mb low over over Ohio/PA border at 12z Sat. And we are still 72hrs away. I think NYC south will up as rain either way. You can't be so sure just yet. Things can still change. The freezing line gets really close to the area on all the models so a little bump south and we are all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That is one of the analogs by CIPS for this storm. You can't be so sure just yet. Things can still change. The freezing line gets really close to the area on all the models so a little bump south and we are all frozen. With no blocking, a south/colder trend from here is not likely. Though, we will likely begin as snow, if precip arrives early enough Sat. morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The 0z Euro corrected warmer for the coast from 12z with a stronger onshore flow. Same warming pattern it has had all season leading up to the storms. Unfortunately we very well may be screwed. The above normal water temps are not going to help. I remember back in 96 water temps got down in the mid 30s and that was probably a contributing factor to the record snow on the island that winter. There were a couple of event when the flow was marginal that winter that stayed all snow. We most likely need the furthest south track possible to keep more east then south in the flow or its going to be a very annoying time just like in October (completely different synoptically obviously but the result is the same for us) were we watch people just to our NW score and we get some slush on the front end then a cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 With no blocking, a south/colder trend from here is not likely. Though, we will likely begin as snow, if precip arrives early enough Sat. morning. Even with the AO freefalling? I would think a south trend can happen if the AO and NAO is falling. We will see though. The one thing that I don't like is that the low on all the models travel through PA and then right through our area. Like I said, that track is bad for our area but the models all have the freezing line right near us throughout the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z Nam has a nice little burst of snow from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM also botching the extent of the precip on event two...note at 60 hours the difference in the 700mb RH fields near 100% in W-PA yet the precip is only as far east as western OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM also botching the extent of the precip on event two...note at 60 hours the difference in the 700mb RH fields near 100% in W-PA yet the precip is only as far east as western OH Same at 66 hours, The precip is still in Central PA while the RH fields are near 100 on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 There is a great CAD signature at 69 hours, but the NAM is focusing all the WAA precip in W-NY with zilch over the area, I just do not buy that at all with that setup. Either its wrong on the CAD signature and the strength and position of the high or its wrong on the precip depictions but I don't imagine with that setup we'd have nothing breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 There is a great CAD signature at 69 hours, but the NAM is focusing all the WAA precip in W-NY with zilch over the area, I just do not buy that at all with that setup. Either its wrong on the CAD signature and the strength and position of the high or its wrong on the precip depictions but I don't imagine with that setup we'd have nothing breaking out. At 75 hours, NYC is still below freezing. Here is the RH field at 75 hours. Meanwhile, the precip hasn't even reached Maine yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Depending on the timing and the placement of the high will determine how much snow will fall for NYC and LI. It is almost certain that it will begin as snow but based on the latest computer models means that warm air will win out and changeover to sleet/freezing rain and eventually plain rain. Accumulation are still possible depending how long the cold air stays around with the track. Without any blocking the storm will likely to go far north to make this a pure snow event but still think 1-3" could happen before mixing and changing to sleet/freezing rain and rain. Inland areas looks good mostly or all snow with at least 3-6". The north trend has been the theme for this winter and the 12z NAM looks quite warm and the freezing line goes all up through Central NY and NE but there will be cold air in place so everybody from NYC and northward has good shot to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Even with the AO freefalling? I would think a south trend can happen if the AO and NAO is falling. We will see though. The one thing that I don't like is that the low on all the models travel through PA and then right through our area. Like I said, that track is bad for our area but the models all have the freezing line right near us throughout the whole event. The AO/NAO tanking is irrelevant. Look at 500mb. We don't have any real blocking yet. There is just a weak ridge over Greenland and no 50/50 low. The PV is up over Northern Canada. There is nothing keep hold the high in place over SE Canada and prevent the storm coming further north: Also, even on the line/bar charts. The NAO is still positive before this storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It NAO will stay positive until January 26th and may after that go negative briefly like it did in late October. Regarding the storm without the blocking, no 50/50 low and NAO still positive will bring the storm further north enough to bring warmer air to change any snow over to a wintry mix and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It NAO will stay positive until January 26th and may after that go negative briefly like it did in late October. Regarding the storm without the blocking, no 50/50 low and NAO still positive will bring the storm further north enough to bring warmer air to change any snow over to a wintry mix and rain. Pretty much a wash rinse repeat of this winter transient blocking/cold shots that in order to get snow has to be timed right for a snowstorm which hasnt happened this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Gfs has close to .10 for the city east for clipper. Hr 69 light snow over spreading the are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hr 72 still light snow....32 line just east of city....850 south on ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This looks to be better for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hr 75 32 line over city....850 runs through staten island. Hr 78 850 north of city...32 line just west of city...by mt earthlight After hr 78 everything crashes south...with preciep still in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Gfs looks like about .25" of precip as snow before it warms. Nice to see it colder then before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NNJ and SNY look to remain all snow on GFS. The city looks to warm but not till the majority of the precip has ended. The city verbatim on this run might manage 1-3 which would be epic this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Areas just n and w never go above 0 at 850 and some dont go above 0 at the surface for the SWFE. Don't trust a solution that cold, it would be all snow for me pretty much, yeah right. Hope it stays that way, but not gonna weenie out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Scratch that the temps actually start to cool again as the lp exits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hr 75 32 line over city....850 runs through staten island. Hr 78 850 north of city...32 line just west of city...by mt earthlight After hr 78 everything crashes south...with preciep still in area careful, gfs on SV is a 3 hour prog with 6 hour precip, there isn't much left when everything crashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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