mattinpa Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The high is further to the northwest than what the GFS and GEFS just showed. Also, it looks a tad north than the GFS. If the GGEM is the only warmer one, I'm not concerned, but I would like to see the GFS keep trending. One colder run isn't a trend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This is going down to the wire and can go either way, I know Trials is going to say oh massive torch all rain for anyone south and east of Binghamton. With how poorly models have handled low level cold, watch out for icing at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was talking about this storm before to some people. The models kept on converging both waves. In the end, both of the waves never merged and the area received 7-9 inches of snow. 1-3 inches was only forecasted. That storm is shown as an analog on CIPS FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That storm is shown as an analog on CIPS FWIW. Ok, well book it then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That storm is shown as an analog on CIPS FWIW. The one difference is that the Feb 2008 storm was stronger than what this will be. Other than that, the track looks really similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Where did you reside prior to your move to Long Island? Oh, I spent my time much like the antagonist in Job; going to and fro in the earth, and walking up and down in it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Which CWA was Orange in back then? Might have been Binghamton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Might have been Binghamton... I'm thinking probably Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro still gives us a good bit of snow (relatively speaking) on the front end at 84 hours. It has def. trended north though. The 850 0c line is directly over NYC at 90 hours. Looks like it changes over to mixed precipitation and rain...but I wouldn't be surprised if this run still gave us a light to moderate snow especially over the interior. Can't complain, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro still gives us a good bit of snow (relatively speaking) on the front end at 84 hours. It has def. trended north though. The 850 0c line is directly over NYC at 90 hours. Looks like it changes over to mixed precipitation and rain...but I wouldn't be surprised if this run still gave us a light to moderate snow especially over the interior. Can't complain, really. Hows the clipper look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hows the clipper look? Similar to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hoping to see 2" out here on li. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro still gives us a good bit of snow (relatively speaking) on the front end at 84 hours. It has def. trended north though. The 850 0c line is directly over NYC at 90 hours. Looks like it changes over to mixed precipitation and rain...but I wouldn't be surprised if this run still gave us a light to moderate snow especially over the interior. Can't complain, really. a 50 mile shift south on the euro/gfs/ggem and we would be in line for a nice event..Its close, but it could also easily slip north and give us mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Still 2-4" for mostly everybody on the clown maps....more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 a 50 mile shift south on the euro/gfs/ggem and we would be in line for a nice event..Its close, but it could also easily slip north and give us mostly rain Yeah...and given the pattern we are in, I like the setup. Can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Still 2-4" for mostly everybody on the clown maps....more north. Looks like 6"+ up this way as per the euro.. Basically in line with the GFS as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like 6"+ up this way as per the euro.. Basically in line with the GFS as well.. It's a good thump for all of us. Much longer period of snow up where you are obviously. I have to wonder whether or not the mid level features will continue to trend north. Even if they do, though...the surface cold has been overperforming somewhat which leads me to believe it could be another mid level warming, low level cold type situation. Could be more sleet and rain..especially for areas south of the city. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's a good thump for all of us. Much longer period of snow up where you are obviously. I have to wonder whether or not the mid level features will continue to trend north. Even if they do, though...the surface cold has been overperforming somewhat which leads me to believe it could be another mid level warming, low level cold type situation. Could be more sleet and rain..especially for areas south of the city. We will see. Kinda gives me added comfort when the GGEM/GFS/EC all pretty much agree but like you said we shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The NAM is Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The 06Z GFS is juicier with the clipper than it was with 00z, especially for New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The 06Z GFS is juicier with the clipper than it was with 00z, especially for New Jersey. Wouldn't count on it. But we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wouldn't count on it. But we can hope. I'm just saying what the model shows verbatim. If we can get a coating like the 6Z GFS shows thursday night, that would be really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The High Pressure to the North appears to be west of where the 00z GFS had it, but 850s look warmer when comparing 00z to 06z. Precipitation will fall in the next frame. This is for the Saturday OV event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm just saying what the model shows verbatim. If we can get a coating like the 6Z GFS shows thursday night, that would be really nice. I know, its cutting it close on Saturday, 850's just NW of the city, and decent precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The 06Z GFS looks like the 00z GFS in terms of the thermal profile at 850 mb. I'm going to go back to sleep now. What is a little concerning to see though is that the GFS trended colder than 00z with the low level cold. Major ice storm for NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The event may come down to the typical overrunning precip timing fail the models often have. The 06Z GFS shows no measurable precip for NYC til hour 81, however; there is reason for me to believe based on these storms in the past that measurable precip could be falling by hour 75-77 or so when the GFS only shows precip into W NJ at best...the reason being you're barrelling moisture into a near 1030mb high and have great lift and moisture advection in the middle and upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 This is seriously starting to look like a high level advisory low level warning event for NYC and LI this weekend with 4-7 inches of front end WAA SN/+SN, followed by light amount of IP and ZR. A low grade warning event is looking much more likely if one blends the latest GFS, GGEM and EURO. It looks like 100 miles south of here is a cold rain, and 100 miles north is locked in with a 5-9 inch snowfall warning event. Polar high position and low track are great right now for a plowable wet snowfall for the entire NYC metro area. It is very similar to some of the winter 1999-2000 snow events that impacted the area. Nice solid moderate hit, without being paralyzing or shutting down the area. Do not really need those double digit disruptive snowfalls we had last two winters as that was too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2/18/00 and 2/22/08 are the 2 events I'm looking at right now as possible analogs. Ironically about 10 days ago I mentioned those very 2 events as the ones to look at as possible analogs for what we could see in the upcoming 2 weeks period. I doubt we'll see anything like 7 or 8 inches for the coast on Saturday but 4 or 5 would not surprise me so long as we do not see some sort of horrid trend in the way everything evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2/18/00 and 2/22/08 are the 2 events I'm looking at right now as possible analogs. Ironically about 10 days ago I mentioned those very 2 events as the ones to look at as possible analogs for what we could see in the upcoming 2 weeks period. I doubt we'll see anything like 7 or 8 inches for the coast on Saturday but 4 or 5 would not surprise me so long as we do not see some sort of horrid trend in the way everything evolves. The cold air in place is pretty strong....and I was wondering why the gfs held off on the over running so late....remember 08 started earlier then molded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This is seriously starting to look like a high level advisory low level warning event for NYC and LI this weekend with 4-7 inches of front end WAA SN/+SN, followed by light amount of IP and ZR. A low grade warning event is looking much more likely if one blends the latest GFS, GGEM and EURO. It looks like 100 miles south of here is a cold rain, and 100 miles north is locked in with a 5-9 inch snowfall warning event. Polar high position and low track are great right now for a plowable wet snowfall for the entire NYC metro area. It is very similar to some of the winter 1999-2000 snow events that impacted the area. Nice solid moderate hit, without being paralyzing or shutting down the area. Do not really need those double digit disruptive snowfalls we had last two winters as that was too much... I do not see any of this at all, what's to stop the north trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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